Control‐based imputation for sensitivity analyses in informative censoring for recurrent event data

In clinical trials, missing data commonly arise through nonadherence to the randomized treatment or to study procedure. For trials in which recurrent event endpoints are of interests, conventional analyses using the proportional intensity model or the count model assume that the data are missing at random, which cannot be tested using the observed data alone. Thus, sensitivity analyses are recommended. We implement the control‐based multiple imputation as sensitivity analyses for the recurrent event data. We model the recurrent event using a piecewise exponential proportional intensity model with frailty and sample the parameters from the posterior distribution. We impute the number of events after dropped out and correct the variance estimation using a bootstrap procedure. We apply the method to an application of sitagliptin study.     

日内知情交易概率测度及事件影响研究

在EKOP模型测度PIN的基础上,通过建立时变交易到达率模型,滚动计算日内知情交易概率,并将PIN测度与事件研究相结合,对比了不同规模公司股票在事件日前后PIN的变化情况。实证结果表明我国股市存在信息泄露情况,尤其是小规模公司股票在公告日前一天知情交易明显增加;前一笔知情交易对当前非知情交易有削弱作用,但对当前知情交易有加强作用,可以进一步解释交易的集簇现象：日内PIN对信息的刻画更加准确,但也发现在公共事件发生后第二天PIN仍会增加,这表明市场上存在信息的学习者,需要对引起PIN增加的原因进行更准确的分析。     

网络商业谣言的成因探析——以湖南隆回金银花事件为例

从湖南隆回金银花事件可以看出网络商业谣言的传播实质上是一个复杂的社会信息传播过程。这一过程包括若干不可或缺的要素,而要素间的制约/影响关系又是与特定具体的社会历史条件联系在一起的。网络商业谣言从生成到传播扩散至一定规模,与社会环境、媒介环境、受众基础有着很大的关系。市场竞争激烈而商业道德缺失的社会环境是网络商业谣言产生的温床。金银花产品自身的鉴定问题增加了事件的模糊性,导致自身易发谣言。受众恐惧心理和科学常识缺乏等特点也在一定程度上助长了谣言的传播。而媒介既是网络商业谣言的传播渠道,也是治理网络商业谣言的有力工具。     

Marriage and separation risks among German cohabiters: Differences between types of cohabiter

We propose a typology of different meanings of cohabitation that combines cohabiters’ intentions to marry with a general attitude toward marriage, using competing risk analyses to examine whether some cohabiters are more prone than others to marry or to separate. Using data (N = 1,258) from four waves of the German Family Panel (PAIRFAM) and a supplementary study (DEMODIFF), we compared eastern and western German cohabiters of the birth cohorts 1971–73 and 1981–83. Western Germans more frequently view cohabitation as a step in the marriage process, whereas eastern Germans more often cohabit as an alternative to marriage. Taking into account marital attitudes reveals that cohabiters without marriage plans differ from those with plans in their relationship careers, and also shows that cohabiters who plan to marry despite holding a less favourable view of marriage are less likely to realize their plans than cohabiters whose intentions and attitudes are more congruent.     

Which Spouse Initiates Marital Separation When There Are Children Involved?

This report examines whether the presence of children in marriage differentially influences the risk of wives or husbands initiating separation. The analytic sample consists of 9,118 first marriages from the Households, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey (2001). Using event history and competing risks analysis, I find weak evidence that wives are less likely than husbands to initiate when they have infants, and husbands are less likely than wives to initiate when children are school age or older. Overall, the results show that children deter marital separation for both wives and husbands, indicating that gender differences in the decision to separate are likely attributable to other factors such as a willingness to remain in an unhappy marriage.     

案件事实及其形成

法律适用的对象是案件事实,而案件事实与通常理解的事实概念存在本质区别,案件事实即是已被诉讼程序证成为案件事实的生活事件,案件事实不是既定的、不是被发现的客观事实,而是由诉讼主体运用证据、证据规则和事理逻辑形成的;很多情况下,事实问题即是法律问题,法规范对案件事实起着型构的作用;审判过程中规范与事实相互作用且自我显形;事理逻辑最具研究价值,因为这一研究能揭示出形成案件事实的过程中最能体现法官个人判断的意识因素。笔者采用思辩哲学与司法实践紧密联系,从抽象到具体,从具体上升为抽象的研究方法。     

Modeling Correlated Discrete Uncertainties in Event Trees with Copulas

Modeling the dependence between uncertainties in decision and risk analyses is an important part of the problem structuring process. We focus on situations where correlated uncertainties are discrete, and extend the concept of the copula‐based approach for modeling correlated continuous uncertainties to the representation of correlated discrete uncertainties. This approach reduces the required number of probability assessments significantly compared to approaches requiring direct estimates of conditional probabilities. It also allows the use of multiple dependence measures, including product moment correlation, rank order correlation and tail dependence, and parametric families of copulas such as normal copulas, t‐copulas, and Archimedean copulas. This approach can be extended to model the dependence between discrete and continuous uncertainties in the same event tree.     

公司高管变更的市场反应——来自中国A股市场的经验证据

选取2001—2010年中国沪深A股上市公司的数据为样本，以61天为窗口期，运用事件研究法，对上市公司高管变更事件的市场反应进行了实证检验。结果表明，高管变更事件具有信息含量；高管变更事件既可能被市场解读为好消息，也可能被市场理解为坏消息，具体取决于市场对高管聘任的态度；变更公告发布前累积超常收益率呈上升态势，随着变更公告的发布，累积超常收益率表现为明显的下降态势；国有企业高管变更累积超常收益率为正，非国有企业高管变更累积超常收益率为负；自愿高管变更累积超常收益率为正，强制高管变更累积超常收益率为负；非常规高管变更累积超常收益率高于常规高管变更累积超常收益率。上述发现对完善企业高管聘任机制、推进现代企业制度建设具有重要意义。     

论《集注分类东坡诗》的历史阐释

《王状元集百家注分类东坡先生诗》中注者众多,且距离苏轼生活的年代较近。这些注者根据苏诗与当代史实密切相关的特点,运用孟子提出的"以意逆志"与"知人论世"相结合的诗歌阐释方法,考证与苏诗相关的大小事件,展现诗歌创作的背景,揭示引发诗歌创作的事因,从而解释全篇之意。对使用"赋"体、"比兴"体、典故等不同表现方法的诗句,都能以"本事"为根据,准确地解释其意义,对后来的苏诗注有重要的启发。