中国决策情境下的多源流模型及其优化研究

作为当今公共政策研究领域最炙手可热的理论模型之一,约翰·金登的多源流分析理论业已得到国内外学者的广泛应用与认可。在对该模型的相关内容进行简单铺陈后,通过辨析国内外不同的政策主体参与逻辑,进一步厘清了我国公共决策的独有特征。研究重点是在整合提炼西方既有修正思路的基础上,沿袭模型的模糊性假设,结合我国具体实践案例,对多源流模型进行优化与补充。研究表明,中国决策情境下的多源流模型优化主要有提高源流间的融合性、政治源流的核心化、焦点事件的独立化以及特殊情况下的临时决策等四种路径,四种优化与补充路径的有机结合将为进一步提升模型适用性提供帮助。     

路径与旨趣：近代浙江文化史研究嬗变

近代江南史研究见证并参与了近代中国社会文化的变迁,相比上海、苏南等地,浙江近代文化史研究亟需进一步拓展与深化。以革命与事件、结构与认同、学人与学派等研究路径为线索,回顾浙江近代文化史研究的关键要素,应能展望今后研究的方向：去意识形态化、突破单向度思维,以多元视角阐释近代浙江的革命群体与事件;揭示近代浙江文化现象背后深层次的社会关系和权力关系、结构与心态、集体记忆与文化认同,进一步认知近代精英与民众、国家与社会的能动关系;浙江学人在近代学术流变中发挥承前启后的作用,学人学术思想的本意及其实践成为近代浙学重建的重要参考。运用整体视角综合事件、结构、学理,积极拓展史料与理论范式,深入发掘近代浙江文化的历史经验和内在脉络,将为探索中国原理提供有效的知识与思想资源。     

Semiparametric Estimation of a Change-point for Recurrent Events Data

One particular recurrent events data scenario involves patients experiencing events according to a common intensity rate, and then a treatment may be applied. The treatment might be effective for a limited amount of time, so that the intensity rate would be expected to change abruptly when the effect of the treatment wears out. In particular, we allow models for the intensity rate, post-treatment, to be at first decreasing and then change to increasing (and vice versa). Two estimators of the location of this change are proposed.     

重大公共卫生事件背景下的青年思想政治教育工作

新冠疫情的暴发作为一场全球性重大公共卫生事件对青年思想状况产生了较大影响。思想政治教育必须回应青年的思想关切,并给予及时的引导。基于重大公共卫生事件做好思想政治教育工作有五个基本着力点,即：以树立正确的灾难观为着力点,培养危机意识和担当精神;以倡导科学应对疫情为着力点,提高理性思辨能力和自我防护能力;以讲好中国抗疫经验为着力点,增强四个意识,坚定四个自信;以反思人与自然关系为着力点,增强自然保护意识和生态文明理念;以关注全球抗疫大局为着力点,筑牢人类命运共同体意识。     

一场声势浩大的新闻事件策划——浅析《金沙》的推广宣传策略

“新闻事件策划”这个命题自上世纪九十年代中期被提出以后,长期受到广泛争议和关注。在笔者的研究中,以一系列新闻事件策划的理论和实践研究成果为评判标准,主要关注成都市历时打造一年的文化名片“金沙”,以及作为媒体聚焦点的《金沙》音乐剧。在分析“金沙”成功的造势背后,揭示这条“金光闪闪”的文化产业链运作的新思路。     

Consistent Estimation of the Structural Distribution Function

Motivated by problems in linguistics we consider a multinomial random vector for which the number of cells N is not much smaller than the sum of the cell frequencies, i.e. the sample size n . The distribution function of the uniform distribution on the set of all cell probabilities multiplied by N is called the structural distribution function of the cell probabilities. Conditions are given that guarantee that the structural distribution function can be estimated consistently as n increases indefinitely although n / N does not. The natural estimator is inconsistent and we prove consistency of essentially two alternative estimators.     

Arenas of comfort and conflict: peer relationship events and young people's educational attainment

Previous research suggests that developments in young people's peer relationships may either compound or alleviate the adverse impacts of other major life changes during adolescence. We explored this proposition with respect to young people's educational attainment upon leaving high school, using longitudinal data from a large cohort of Australian secondary school students (n?=?1612) who have taken part in the Our Lives research study between the ages of 12/13 and 19/20 years. Our analysis focused on the role of peer relationship events such bullying, friendship problems, falling in love, and breaking up with someone. Bullying and romantic involvement were associated with lower odds of receiving a competitive tertiary entrance rank at the end of high school. However, close, resilient friendships – in which status and identity conflicts may be more easily tolerated and resolved – may help to offset the role of these other events. As well as reviewing the consequences of our findings for young people's educational and occupational trajectories in the longer-term, we highlight their implications for future research and policy in this area.     

热点公共事件群体极化：表征、影响及其应对

作为舆情异化的热点公共事件群体极化,具有蔓延负面情绪、筑设思维壁垒、滋生集体暴力等系列表征,呈现模糊核心议题、消解协商机制、扭曲良性意识、诱发公共危机等负面效应。究其因由,可溯源至信息泛滥作祟、公众心理失衡、社会撕裂激发、政民关系滑坡等不同维度。防范和化解热点公共事件群体极化,须从国家、社会、公民三重视域着手,多管齐下、规制导引,以净化舆论生态、凝聚社会共识。     

唐代佛教与山水共生的寺院诗

在中国诗史上,唐代是寺院诗创作的转进与勃兴期,作品数量及题材拓展均取得极大突破。在书写模式上,相继形成藉景畅理、触境明心、纪实绘景三种类型,充分体现佛教与山水互彰的共生性,为山水诗开拓出全新境界。唐人寺院诗重写景造境,常以动静相生法状清寂之景,物态生动,意境幽玄。寺院诗在艺术表现上追求警策,字锻句炼,隽语频出,普遍形成以精切之语状绝胜之景的艺术效果。     

微信时代风险信息的传播与感知——以山东“问题”疫苗事件为例

目前,以手机终端为依托的微信传播技术不仅给社会传播方式带来了前所未有的改变,而且给社会风险信息的传播获取以及公众对风险的感知与判断,甚至政府的风险决策与治理方式都带来了巨大的挑战.鉴于此,选取了比较典型的案例——山东“问题”疫苗事件作为探讨对象,结合相应的统计资料,深入分析了在此案例中微信传播呈现出的显著特征,即传播内容庞杂未见明显的“沉默螺旋”的显现,传播态度多元化但偏于激动,传播迅速集中但议题缺乏持续的关注.研究认为,正由于这样的传播特征加之疫苗风险本身的特征与个体的偏颇性解读,使公众对“问题”疫苗事件产生了强烈的风险感知,并在一定程度上造成了疫苗的污名化结果.因此建议微信时代一定要警惕媒介化的风险,风险沟通要在同理心的基础上进行,要引导公众对风险议题进行持续理性的关注等.