Issues in Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curves in the Presence of Unknown Structural Change

Many articles which have estimated models with forward looking expectations have reported that the magnitude of the coefficients of the expectations term is very large when compared with the effects coming from past dynamics. This has sometimes been regarded as implausible and led to the feeling that the expectations coefficient is biased upwards. A relatively general argument that has been advanced is that the bias could be due to structural changes in the means of the variables entering the structural equation. An alternative explanation is that the bias comes from weak instruments. In this article, we investigate the issue of upward bias in the estimated coefficients of the expectations variable based on a model where we can see what causes the breaks and how to control for them. We conclude that weak instruments are the most likely cause of any bias and note that structural change can affect the quality of instruments. We also look at some empirical work in Castle et al. (2014 Castle, J. L., Doornik, J. A., Hendry, D. F., Nymoen, R. (2014). Misspecification testing: non-invariance of expectations models of inflation. Econometric Reviews 33:5–6, 553–574, doi:10.1080/07474938.2013.825137[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) on the new Kaynesian Phillips curve (NYPC) in the Euro Area and U.S. assessing whether the smaller coefficient on expectations that Castle et al. (2014 Castle, J. L., Doornik, J. A., Hendry, D. F., Nymoen, R. (2014). Misspecification testing: non-invariance of expectations models of inflation. Econometric Reviews 33:5–6, 553–574, doi:10.1080/07474938.2013.825137[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) highlight is due to structural change. Our conclusion is that it is not. Instead it comes from their addition of variables to the NKPC. After allowing for the fact that there are weak instruments in the estimated re-specified model, it would seem that the forward coefficient estimate is actually quite high rather than low.     

中国内地与香港经济周期协同性的门限性质检验——兼论两地经济周期协同性中的美国因素

运用M arkov区制转移模型,对中国内地与香港经济周期协同性的门限性质以及美国对两地经济周期协同性的影响进行分析。结果显示:一方面,两地经济周期的协同性依赖于区制状态的"门限性质",即在不同的经济周期区制内呈现出不同的协同性水平。另一方面,两地经济周期的协同程度隐含了美国作为两地之间经济冲击的传递渠道以及两地共同的外部冲击源的影响。当剥离美国经济的影响之后,两地经济周期的协同程度较为微弱。因此,促进两地经济周期的长期趋同,应科学甄别和合理利用美国经济对两地经济周期协同性的影响。     

关键事件技术及其应用——以制造商转换行为的研究为例

作为一种定性研究方法,关键事件技术特别适用于理论发展和管理有效性等研究目的。目前,该方法被广泛应用于教育、管理、零售、服务接触以及关系管理等领域进行探索性研究,其信度和效度也一再得到检验和证明。本文首先介绍了关键事件技术,并将其运用到制造商转换行为的研究之中。研究表明:价格、产品质量、物流能力、公司采购战略、服务质量是影响制造商转换的最为重要的原因。而且,不同的转换原因对制造商的满意度有不同的影响。在进一步分析的基础上,本文还得出85%的制造商转换属于复杂转换以及关系对顾客保留的影响可能与供应商所能提供的顾客价值有关等等富有意义的结论。     

从学生误译看翻译中逻辑思维转换的意义

由于所处的地理环境和文化传统不同,英语民族和汉语民族在逻辑思维方式上存在不少差异。在英汉翻译过程中,从理解原文到组织译文,英汉两种思维模式很可能会互相干扰。根深蒂固的母语思维可能影响译者对原文的理解,同时英语思维定式也会对译文的组织产生干扰。即是说,逻辑思维转换与运用的正确与否是导致误译的主要原因之一,能否在英汉两种思维模式之间顺利转换是翻译成功的重要因素。     

中东地区的防核扩散治理机制建设探析

本文以机制建设为分析视角,讨论中东地区的防核扩散治理机制建设。本文认为,中东国家若以地区安全论坛为对话平台,通过在争议较小的非传统安全领域开展的合作治理行动增进信任,在防核扩散问题上引入“分步走”的治理措施,将更有可能在防扩散治理机制建设方面取得进展。     

The Politics and Discourse of Migrant Return: The Role of UNHCR and IOM in the Governance of Return

This article proposes that there is added value in moving beyond isolated studies of return-related migration policies in order to consider both deportations and so-called assisted voluntary returns under the common heading of ‘state-induced returns’. Based on official documents and interviews with staff members of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and the International Organisation for Migration, it argues that international actors working in the field of migrant return engage in a type of task-sharing that goes beyond functional complementariness. With regard to the return of rejected asylum seekers, for instance, they legitimise each other's engagement as well as the overarching return objectives of governments, and are, therefore, involved in norm-building regarding the acceptability of state-induced returns. In addition to setting certain minimum standards regarding states' treatment of their immigrant population, international actors assist states in upholding control over them. Rather than merely replacing state-led regulation, international actors thus support domestic governments in reaching their migration control objectives, and thereby contribute to a stabilisation of state sovereignty in the governance of migration.     

Statistical analysis of error for fourth-order ordinary differential equation solvers

We develop an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to study the statistical behavior of the numerical error generated from three fourth-order ordinary differential equation solvers: Milne's method, Adams–Bashforth method and a new method that randomly switches between the Milne and Adams–Bashforth methods. With the actual error data based on three differential equations, we desire to identify an ARIMA model for each data series. Results show that some of the data series can be described by ARIMA models but others cannot. Based on the mathematical form of the numerical error, other statistical models should be investigated in the future. Finally, we assess the multivariate normality of the sample mean error generated by the switching method.     

弘光政权武臣内部争斗述略

南明弘光政权是在李自成的农民军推翻大明王朝之后建立的,当时北方尚有清军与农民军两股势力对南方虎视眈眈,新政权处于岌岌可危之境.弘光政权的武臣正当为国分忧、保家卫国之时,然而他们非但未能建功立业,却暴露出种种恶劣行径,骚扰百姓,内讧斗狠,致使军队的战斗力下降,甚至投敌叛国.将大好河山拱手让人.其历史教训极为深刻.     

Markov regime switching in mean and in fractional integration parameter

We propose a specific general Markov-regime switching estimation both in the long memory parameter d and the mean of a time series. We employ Viterbi algorithm that combines the Viterbi procedures in two state Markov-switching parameter estimation. It is well-known that existence of mean break and long memory in time series can be easily confused with each other in most cases. Thus, we aim at observing the deviation and interaction of mean and d estimates for different cases. A Monte Carlo experiment reveals that the finite sample performance of the proposed algorithm for a simple mixture model of Markov-switching mean and d changes with respect to the fractional integrating parameters and the mean values for the two regimes.     

Role of stylized features in constructing better estimators

This article discusses the role played by stylized features of financial time series in constructing better estimators for the model parameters. We study in detail one such estimator for the transition probabilities of a simple regime switching model. The estimator is based on the squared autocovariances of the time series, which has been discussed in several empirical studies of economic and financial time series. The effectiveness of this estimator in improving the estimation accuracy is investigated, using both finite sample and asymptotic computations. We also report simulation results to confirm our findings and to extend our conclusions over a bigger region of the parameter space.