基于信息不对称的突发需求风险管理

供应链中信息不对称和需求突变现象普遍存在。信息缺乏方希望既获得真实的信息又尽可能地减小需求突变对自己的影响。本文研究由于某种原因市场需求发生突变,变化量有高低两种可能且是零售商的私有信息的情形,针对由一个生产商和一个零售商组成的供应链,我们设计了由批发价、订货量和经济补贴三个参数构成的两套批发合同供零售商选择。研究表明在大多数情况下该合同可以满足生产商"既辨别出真实的需求变化又最大化利润"的目的。     

When Are Local Incentive Constraints Sufficient?

We study the question of whether local incentive constraints are sufficient to imply full incentive compatibility in a variety of mechanism design settings, allowing for probabilistic mechanisms. We give a unified approach that covers both continuous and discrete type spaces. On many common preference domains—including any convex domain of cardinal or ordinal preferences, single‐peaked ordinal preferences, and successive single‐crossing ordinal preferences—local incentive compatibility (suitably defined) implies full incentive compatibility. On domains of cardinal preferences that satisfy a strong nonconvexity condition, local incentive compatibility is not sufficient. Our sufficiency results hold for dominant‐strategy and Bayesian Nash solution concepts, and allow for some interdependence in preferences.     

Designing Efficient Infrastructural Investment and Asset Transfer Mechanisms in Humanitarian Supply Chains

We analyze the efficacy of different asset transfer mechanisms and provide policy recommendations for the design of humanitarian supply chains. As a part of their preparedness effort, humanitarian organizations often make decisions on resource investments ex ante because doing so allows for rapid response if an adverse event occurs. However, programs typically operate under funding constraints and donor earmarks with autonomous decision‐making authority resting with the local entities, which makes the design of efficient humanitarian supply chains a challenging problem. We formulate this problem in an agency setting with two independent aid programs, where different asset transfer mechanisms are considered and where investments in resources are of two types: primary resources that are needed for providing the aid and infrastructural investments that improve the operation of the aid program in using the primary resources. The primary resources are acquired from earmarked donations. We show that allowing aid programs the flexibility of transferring primary resources improves the efficiency of the system by yielding greater social welfare than when this flexibility does not exist. More importantly, we show that a central entity that can acquire primary resources from one program and sell them to the other program can further improve system efficiency by providing a mechanism that facilitates the transfer of primary resources and eliminates losses from gaming. This outcome is achieved without depriving the individual aid programs of their decision‐making autonomy while maintaining the constraints under which they operate. We find that outcomes with centralized resource transfer but decentralized infrastructural investments by the aid programs are the same as with a completely centralized system (where both resource transfer and infrastructural investments are centralized).     

Buttressing Supply Chains against Floods in Asia for Humanitarian Relief and Economic Recovery

Floods are the most frequent category of disasters worldwide. Among all geographic regions, Asia has suffered the most. While there are several ongoing humanitarian efforts and initiatives, we believe there is a new opportunity to coordinate “last mile” humanitarian efforts in the event of a flood using micro‐retailers. Because micro‐retailers are the “last mile” nodes in traditional retail supply chains in many Asian countries, we propose the use of social enterprise to buttress these supply chains for distribution of essential goods by coordinating with micro‐retailers before and after floods. We also present a stylized model to quantify the benefits of doing so.     

改革开放后北京、上海、广州对流动人口的经济拉力因素的分析

本文以推拉理论建立多元线性模型并运用逐步回归的方法,分析改革开放后北京、上海、广州吸引流动人口流入的经济因素。结果显示流动人口主要依据微观经济因素做出流动迁移决策;不同城市对流动人口产生拉力的具体的微观经济因素不尽相同,即使有相同经济拉力因素的城市,拉力的大小也有差异;三城市的流动人口就业的分布不同,广州流动人口就业集中分布于第三产业,北京和上海则不然。     

Advancing Methodological Knowledge Within State and Local Demography: a Case Study

Much of the academic literature dealing with state and local demography involves the development and evaluation of methods for estimating population. The focus on estimation methods is not surprising because they are used in many states to allocate resources. The quality control in regard to the validity and reliability afforded these methods by the traditional academic peer review process is important because, among other things, it serves to reduce the high potential for conflict that exists when resources are at stake. There are, however, methods being used by state and local demographers that have not been subject to peer review. While not necessarily unsound, these fugitive methods serve to keep the potential for conflict high because of the uncertainty regarding their validity and reliability. This paper examines just such a situation in the form of a case study. It is a discussion of a regression model developed in Nevada following the 2000 census that led to conflict over its use to estimate the population of Clark County, Nevada in 2002. The discussion reveals statistical and methodological shortcomings in this model that lead to an alternative model not subject to these shortcomings. This example illustrates how this type of analysis and discussion can lead to a wider understanding of methods on the part of practitioners through the corrective process of academic peer review. It also suggests that states in which estimates are used to allocate resources would be well-served by subjecting new methods being considered for use to academic peer review before they are adopted.     

Longitudinal Analysis of Inhibitors of Manufacturer Delivery Performance

This article examines demand, manufacturing, and supply factors proposed to inhibit manufacturer delivery execution. Extant research proposes many factors expected to harm delivery performance. Prior cross‐sectional empirical research examines such factors at the plant level, generally finding factors arising from dynamic complexity to be significant, but factors arising from detail complexity to be insignificant. Little empirical research examines the factors using product‐level operating data, which arguably makes more sense for analyzing how supply chain complexity factors inhibit delivery. For purposes of research triangulation, we use longitudinal product‐level data from MRP systems to examine whether the factors inhibit internal manufacturing on time job rates and three customer‐oriented measures of delivery performance: product line item fill rates, average delivery lead times, and average tardiness. Our econometric models pool product line item data across division plants and within distinct product families, using a proprietary monthly dataset on over 100 product line items from the environmental controls manufacturing division of a Fortune 100 conglomerate. The data summarize customer ordering events of over 900 customers and supply chain activities of over 80 suppliers. The study contributes academically by finding significant detail complexity inhibitors of delivery that prior studies found insignificant. The findings demonstrate the need for empirical research using data disaggregated below the plant‐level unit of analysis, as they illustrate how some factors previously found insignificant indeed are significant when considered at the product‐level unit of analysis. Managers can use the findings to understand better which drivers and inhibitors of delivery performance are important.     

Dynamic Mechanism Design: A Myersonian Approach

We study mechanism design in dynamic quasilinear environments where private information arrives over time and decisions are made over multiple periods. We make three contributions. First, we provide a necessary condition for incentive compatibility that takes the form of an envelope formula for the derivative of an agent's equilibrium expected payoff with respect to his current type. It combines the familiar marginal effect of types on payoffs with novel marginal effects of the current type on future ones that are captured by “impulse response functions.” The formula yields an expression for dynamic virtual surplus that is instrumental to the design of optimal mechanisms and to the study of distortions under such mechanisms. Second, we characterize the transfers that satisfy the envelope formula and establish a sense in which they are pinned down by the allocation rule (“revenue equivalence”). Third, we characterize perfect Bayesian equilibrium‐implementable allocation rules in Markov environments, which yields tractable sufficient conditions that facilitate novel applications. We illustrate the results by applying them to the design of optimal mechanisms for the sale of experience goods (“bandit auctions”).     

在活动中发展师德——中小学师德活动的设计与实施

师德活动是师德规范与教师教育实践的"结合体",体现了师德的"实践性"特征。其基本逻辑是将师德制度全面渗透到常态化和主题式的活动中,通过对师德"主体性"的激发,推动教师开展基于师德活动的实践反思,以此帮助教师发展师德。师德活动从形式上看,可以分为:"榜样同行"的师德对话活动,闪烁着师德尊严与光辉的师德仪式活动,以"师德问题求解"为核心的师德研修活动,"关怀备至"的师德发展支持性活动,等等。为保证师德活动能够科学有效地开展,必须建立完善的承托机制,即构建师德共同体、建立系统的师德活动制度与机制、建设立体化的师德活动资源平台与支持体系。