基于主成分分析的商品住宅价格预测研究——以西安市为例

近几年来,随着我国社会经济的不断发展以及城市化速度的加快,国内各大城市的商品住宅价格不断攀升,即便是在政府不断加强宏观调控力度的情况下,商品住宅的价格仍然呈走高趋势。针对这种现象,对房地产市场商品住宅价格的研究就显得十分必要。文章首先对西安市住宅房地产市场价格进行了分析;然后,在此基础上运用描述性统计分析方法有针对性的分析了影响西安市住宅价格的各个因素,并引入主成分分析方法进一步对影响西安市住宅价格的因素进行了实证研究,并得出结论。其次,基于主成分分析的结果,并结合计量经济学回归预测理论建立住宅价格预测模型,并得出西安市未来几年的住宅销售均价。最后,在预测结果的基础上并结合西安市住宅房地产市场的具体情况,对政府提出了使住宅市场健康稳定发展的政策建议。     

FDI对我国各地区经济增长的非线性效应分析

本文运用面板平滑转换(PSTR)模型研究国外直接投资(FDI)对我国各地区经济增长的非线性效应。选取了FDI及影响FDI的市场规模、基础设施、产业结构等8个变量作为解释变量构建单因素和多因素PSTR模型。结果表明我国经济增长与FDI之间存在着平滑转换机制效应;FDI对经济增长的影响是非线性的;FDI是我国各地区经济增长的充分条件,但不是必要条件。     

Logistic方法在财务困境预测中的应用

财务困境预测已成为国内外广泛关注的研究领域.财务困境预测方法主要包括多元线性判别法、逻辑回归法等参数方法以及神经网络等非参数方法,本文对各主要方法的优劣进行了评价,阐述了逻辑回归模型在财务困境预测领域的应用现状,并应用Logistic模型对我国上市公司进行了分类预测,在T-2年上取得了较好的预测精度.     

Stock Evaluation Using a Preference Disaggregation Methodology

This paper presents a real application of a multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) approach to portfolio selection based on preference disaggregation, using ordinal regression and linear programming (UTADIS method; UTilités Additives DIScriminantes). The additive utility functions that are derived through this approach have the extrapolation ability that any new alternative (share) can be easily evaluated and classified into one of several user-predefined groups. The procedure is illustrated with a case study of 98 stocks from the Athens stock exchange, using 15 criteria. The results are encouraging, indicating that the proposed methodology could be used as a tool for the analysis of the portfolio managers' preferences and choices. Furthermore, the comparison with multiple discriminant analysis (either using a stepwise procedure or not) illustrates the superiority of the proposed methodology over a well-known multivariate statistical technique that has been extensively used to study financial decision-making problems.     

Utility‐consistent Brand Demand Systems with Endogenous Category Consumption: Principles and Marketing Applications*

This paper introduces the design and implementation of utility‐consistent, brand, and category demand systems. It extends formal demand analysis to the area of brand and category demand, which directly concerns marketing researchers and managers. The proposed brand demand system is a set of interrelated demand functions that are derived explicitly from a utility function describing consumer preferences. The model generalizes by the integration of category expenditures, which are determined endogenously. The theoretical plausibility of the proposed demand model is demonstrated first and, subsequently, brand and category level systems are derived. Econometric methods for estimating the systems are also developed and illustrated in empirical data. The results yield empirically determined, quantitative insights into the structure of consumer demand for brands and product categories. The proposed approach has the attractive feature of structuring the interdependencies of consumer decisions and ensuring an explicit role for theory in applied research.