对彼得一世改革的再诠释——“财政压力假说”的经验检验

历史上不少国家都发生过由治国者发动的自上而下的变革,而"财政压力说"则对这类变革有一定的解释力。扭转财政危机、维持国家的义理性是彼得一世改革的动因。彼得一世的改革,是他与贵族、教会、工商业者和农民各利益集团之间博弈均衡的过程。彼得一世改革的路径选择是:"甩包袱"与向"新兴财富"征税并举,发展工商业;"向所有利益集团征税",进行币制改革;"向相关利益集团征税",再分配教会和农民的财富。彼得一世改革成功的标志是:各利益集团以纳税支持彼得一世的统治;俄国战胜强大的瑞典,国防力量得到巩固,彼得一世统治的义理性得到提升。     

基于ESDA的吉林省生态效益空间分析

生态系统具有巨大的生态效益,生态效益评估及生态补偿问题,逐渐成为研究的新热点。笔者利用ESDA和GIS技术,揭示了吉林省市县生态效益分布规律,同时结合经济社会综合发展指数进行聚类分析,描述了吉林省生态经济社会系统发展状况,并提出相关的生态补偿建议。研究表明:吉林省市县生态效益价值是可观的;吉林省市县生态效益Moran’s I为0.05,Z值为2.9,说明其存在明显的正相关,具有明显的全局空间集聚现象。LISA分析和Moran散点图等局部空间自相关分析,都说明了生态效益表现为正的空间自相关,并且显著性很强;吉林省市县生态经济社会系统集聚分析结果,揭示出生态补偿区划类型,同时为出台相关的生态补偿政策提供了依据。     

现代文学研究的史论关系的再认识

20世纪在思想上是一个重主观轻客观、重主体轻客体的时代 ,这样的背景决定了在学术研究中产生忽视史料的弊病 ,只有社会环境的改变才可能在整体上改变这种状况。学术工作存在“我思故史在”和“史在促我思”两条路线 ,这两条路线都一样重要。“论从史出”的关键是“出论” ,中国现代文学研究未能出论 ,是它的更大的弱点。     

20世纪初：中国女界新文体

20世纪初的中国女界新文体,是在"文界革命"的社会背景下,在梁启超"新文体"主张与书写实践的示范下,随着妇女解放运动的展开而自成其体的.以女界革命的文思入文,使之产生特有的应用魔力;从妇女解放运动的实际需要出发,打破古旧作文陈规,随心开放文体,使之收获了中国文学史上空前的女子大手笔和难得一见的美文;采用与女子亲合的语言表述方式,使之对妇女大群"别有一种魔力".女界新文体俨然成为一座通达女子现代新文学书写的"魔力"之桥,它不仅作用于辛亥革命时期的民族/国家/妇女解放运动,也为"五四"时期、乃至以后的现代女性书写发展奠定了有力基础.     

A two-stage phase II trial design utilizing both primary and secondary endpoints

Phase II trials in oncology drug development are usually conducted to perform the initial assessment of treatment activity. The common designs in this setting, for example, Simon 2-stage designs, are often developed based on testing whether a parameter of interest, usually a proportion (e.g. response rate), is less than a certain level or not. These designs usually consider only one parameter. However, sometimes we may encounter situations where we need to consider not a single parameter, but multiple parameters. This paper presents a two-stage design in which both primary and secondary endpoints are utilized in the decision rules. The family-wise Type 1 error rate and statistical power of the proposed design are investigated under a variety of situations by means of Monte-Carlo simulations.     

C3I系统的安全增强措施

主要结合C3I系统的建设 ,分析了目前C3I指控系统存在的一些安全隐患 ,并提出了相应的安全增强措施     

Dynamic Random Effects Models for Times Between Repeated Events

We consider recurrent event data when the duration or gap times between successive event occurrences are of intrinsic interest. Subject heterogeneity not attributed to observed covariates is usually handled by random effects which result in an exchangeable correlation structure for the gap times of a subject. Recently, efforts have been put into relaxing this restriction to allow non-exchangeable correlation. Here we consider dynamic models where random effects can vary stochastically over the gap times. We extend the traditional Gaussian variance components models and evaluate a previously proposed proportional hazards model through a simulation study and some examples. Besides, semiparametric estimation of the proportional hazards models is considered. Both models are easily used. The Gaussian models are easily interpreted in terms of the variance structure. On the other hand, the proportional hazards models would be more appropriate in the context of survival analysis, particularly in the interpretation of the regression parameters. They can be sensitive to the choice of model for random effects but not to the choice of the baseline hazard function.     

端口的设置和利用

讨论了如何对IBMPC机的串、并口进行设置及利用并行打印口进行高速信号采集 ,双机通讯 ,I/O控制以及通过软、硬件的方法实现信息的并行输入输出和进行多种功能扩展的实用方法 .     

The impact of local labour markets on investment in further education: Evidence from the England and Wales youth cohort studies

The paper focuses on the individual's choice of activity on completion of compulsory schooling – to remain in full-time education or to seek employment – and the factors influencing this decision. Information from the England and Wales Youth Cohort Studies, coupled with labour market data, is used to estimate of logit model of choice and assess the role played by social and market factors. The results show that labour market conditions play an influential role in determining outcomes, particularly in the case of young males with weaker academic qualifications. Consistent with the time-series evidence, we find that participation rates in further education for both males and females are positively related to the unemployment rate in the local labour market, the effects being greater at times of economic recession when unemployment rates are rising. Received: 5 May 1997/Accepted: 17 July 1998     

A test procedure for detecting super-heavy tails

The aim of this work is to develop a test to distinguish between heavy and super-heavy tailed probability distributions. These classes of distributions are relevant in areas such as telecommunications and insurance risk, among others. By heavy tailed distributions we mean probability distribution functions with polynomially decreasing upper tails (regularly varying tails). The term super-heavy is reserved for right tails decreasing to zero at a slower rate, such as logarithmic, or worse (slowly varying tails). Simulations are presented for several models and an application with telecommunications data is provided.