Modeling of censored bivariate extremal events

In this paper we consider the estimation of the coefficient of tail dependence and of small tail probability under a bivariate randomly censoring mechanism. A new class of generalized moment estimators of the coefficient of tail dependence and the estimator of small tail probability are proposed, respectively. Under the bivariate Hall-type conditions, the asymptotic distributions of these estimators are established. Monte Carlo simulations are performed and the new estimators are applied to an insurance data-set.     

Approximate studentization for Pareto distribution with application to censored data

The use of the Pareto distribution as a model for various socio-economic phenomena dates back to the late nineteenth century. Recently, it has also been recognized as a useful model for the analysis of lifetime data. In this paper, we apply the approximate studentization method to obtain inference for the scale parameter of the Pareto distribution, and also for the strong Pareto law. Moreover, we extend the method to construct prediction limits for thejth smallest future observation based on the firstk observed data.     

Financial satisfaction over the life course: The influence of assets and liabilities

Various studies have shown that financial satisfaction is, among other domains, an important determinant of overall individual well-being. Contrary to the common belief that financial satisfaction mainly depends on an individual’s income, evidence for the US indicates that life course financial satisfaction steadily increases from the thirties onwards, whereas life course income shows an inverted U-pattern with a peak at midlife. To judge from other studies in the US and Norway, this pattern for financial satisfaction is not unique. The aim of the present analysis is to explore the determinants of this life course financial satisfaction pattern, taking into account not only income but also the possible impact of assets and liabilities. The analysis suggests that while income has the expected positive relation, increasing financial satisfaction at older age can be partly explained by decreases in liabilities and increases in financial assets, and that assets and liabilities considered separately provide a better explanation than net wealth. In addition, reduction in the dependency burden at old age leads to increased financial satisfaction while the deterioration of health has a negative impact. The data are from the second and third waves of the US National Survey of Families and Households.     

A formula for Type III sums of squares

Abstract

Type III methods were introduced by SAS to address difficulties in dummy-variable models for effects of multiple factors and covariates. They are widely used in practice; they are the default method in several statistical computing packages. Type III sums of squares (SSs) are defined by a set of instructions; an explicit mathematical formulation does not seem to exist.

An explicit formulation is derived in this paper. It is used to illustrate Type III SSs and to establish their properties in the two-factor ANOVA model.     

A Proposed Hybrid Effect Size Plus p-Value Criterion: Empirical Evidence Supporting its Use

ABSTRACT

When the editors of Basic and Applied Social Psychology effectively banned the use of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) from articles published in their journal, it set off a fire-storm of discussions both supporting the decision and defending the utility of NHST in scientific research. At the heart of NHST is the p-value which is the probability of obtaining an effect equal to or more extreme than the one observed in the sample data, given the null hypothesis and other model assumptions. Although this is conceptually different from the probability of the null hypothesis being true, given the sample, p-values nonetheless can provide evidential information, toward making an inference about a parameter. Applying a 10,000-case simulation described in this article, the authors found that p-values’ inferential signals to either reject or not reject a null hypothesis about the mean (α?=?0.05) were consistent for almost 70% of the cases with the parameter’s true location for the sampled-from population. Success increases if a hybrid decision criterion, minimum effect size plus p-value (MESP), is used. Here, rejecting the null also requires the difference of the observed statistic from the exact null to be meaningfully large or practically significant, in the researcher’s judgment and experience. The simulation compares performances of several methods: from p-value and/or effect size-based, to confidence-interval based, under various conditions of true location of the mean, test power, and comparative sizes of the meaningful distance and population variability. For any inference procedure that outputs a binary indicator, like flagging whether a p-value is significant, the output of one single experiment is not sufficient evidence for a definitive conclusion. Yet, if a tool like MESP generates a relatively reliable signal and is used knowledgeably as part of a research process, it can provide useful information.     

Procrastination, prompts, and preferences: Evidence from daily records of self-directed learning activities

This paper presents evidence showing that a libertarian paternalistic intervention having significant but uneven effects on the student procrastination of a coursework assignment. We observe the degree of procrastination in a language course at a Japanese university with individuals’ electronic records of daily activities. With a quasi-experiment that generates variations in the frequency of interventions and the preference of students towards the course, we examine the effects of in-class verbal prompts by an instructor on the timing of task completion. We find that prompts affect behavior, especially when reinforced, but the responsiveness depends on the class preferences and the timing of interventions.     

Accounting for the role of habit in regular saving

The present study combines insights from social psychology and economics by examining the role of savings habits in regular saving. As frequently practiced, automatic, and goal-facilitated behaviors, savings habits play a critical role in everyday financial decisions. Using the Self-Report Habit Index developed by Verplanken and Orbell (2003), we collected and analyzed survey data to (1) validate the role of habit in regular saving; (2) test whether participation in a savings program, the Individual Development Account program, facilitates habit formation; and (3) examine the role of habit in individual’s perception of financial strain. The results showed that habit mattered for regular saving. It influenced savings amounts above and beyond Theory of Planned Behavior and deposit frequency measures. Habit strength increased over time during program participation and savings habits reduced the stress of financially difficult situations.     

Skill Acquisition in the Informal Economy and Schooling Decisions: Evidence from Emerging Economies

Informal jobs offer skill acquisition opportunities that may facilitate a future switch to formal employment for young workers. In this sense, informal training on the job may be a viable alternative to formal schooling in an economy with a large and diverse informal sector. In this paper, I investigate if these considerations are relevant for the schooling decisions of young individuals using panel data for 17 Latin American countries and micro‐level data for Turkey. Specifically, I ask if the prevalence of informal jobs distorts schooling attainment. I concentrate on three measures of schooling outcomes: (1) secondary education enrollment rate; (2) out‐of‐school rate for lower secondary school; and (3) tertiary education graduation rate. I find that the secondary education enrollment rate is negatively correlated with the size of the informal economy, whereas the out‐of‐school rate is positively correlated. Moreover, the tertiary education graduation rates tend to fall as the informal employment opportunities increase. This means that informal training on the job may be crowding out school education in developing countries. Policies that can potentially affect the size of the informal sector should take into consideration these second‐round effects on aggregate schooling outcomes.     

先秦文化语境中孔子、孟子、荀子对“比德式思维”的建构

"比德式思维"是先秦儒家象征的哲理的思维方式的主要体现。孔子、孟子、荀子对这种思维方式作出了积极的建设。孔子开创了"比德式思维"的先河,孟子对此作出了诠释,荀子对"比德式思维"作出了自觉的发挥。他们对"比德式思维"方式的建设对后代文学发展产生了深远的影响。     

The Effects of the Specialist Schools Education Policy on School and Post‐School Outcomes in England

We investigate the effects of the specialist schools policy, introduced in 1994 in England, on test scores and truancy for pupils during compulsory schooling. We also assess the effects on labour market status and post‐secondary test score performance. We use matching models and data from the Youth Cohort Surveys for pupils who left school in either 2002 or 2004. We find that the policy did raise test scores, as well as increase the probability of employment. The evidence on post‐secondary test scores is mixed insofar as the policy increased the number of A levels studied but reduced average points scores.