江西城市化发展水平的聚类分析与评估

采用聚类分析方法,选取城市化率、城市人均GDP、城镇居民人均可支配收入、城市人均GDP年均增长率、城市二三产业产值占总产值比率、城市二三产业从业人员占总从业人员比率、人均城乡居民储蓄存款、人均城镇新增固定资产等指标,对江西省各主要城市的城市化发展水平加以分析评估,其结果是南昌名列第一,其它依次为新余、景德镇、萍乡、鹰潭、九江、宜春、抚州、赣州、吉安、上饶。     

在数学概念学习过程中的形成性评价

通过中外数学概念学习过程的心理学研究,将APOS理论的四个阶段划分作为评价指标生成的平台,而后概述了形成性评价的相关研究,如基本概念、目的与宗旨、教学观念准备、模式、表现特征等。在此基础之上给出了数学概念学习的形成性评价操作性指导,如评价指标体系的构建、形成性题组的设计、教学和学习信息的收集与处理等。     

农业地质调查项目技术评价指标体系初探

通过分析浙江省农业地质调查活动流程,确定调查活动涉及到的设备清单,从而为技术评价做好准备。对农业地质调查项目进行技术评价可以从先进性、适用性、可靠性、可维护性、技术效率和技术人员的水平六个方面进行。     

大学英语中差异性教学问题研究

根据现代教育理念,在英语教学过程中,教师应尊重学生的人格,关注个体差异,创设良好的语言教学环境,以激发学生学习英语的积极性。对于如何实施有差异的教学,本文提出了一些实施策略并分析了英语教学中实施差异性教学的成果。     

应用技术类科技成果评价及指标体系研究

应用技术类科技成果评价机制不完善,特别是成果评价指标体系的缺失或不科学是影响我国应用技术类科技成果转化的重要因素。本文以应用技术类科技成果评价为研究内容,分析了应用技术类科技成果评价目前存在的主要问题,构建了成果评价指标体系,并在借鉴发达国家成功经验的基础上提出了完善应用技术类科技成果评价的对策建议。     

Modeling Receptor-Mediated Processes with Dioxin: Implications for Pharmacokinetics and Risk Assessment

Dioxin (2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo- p -dioxin; TCDD), a widespread polychlorinated aromatic hydrocarbon, caused tumors in the liver and other sites when administered chronically to rats at doses as low as 0.01 μg/kg/day. It functions in combination with a cellular protein, the Ah receptor, to alter gene regulation, and this resulting modulation of gene expression is believed to be obligatory for both dioxin toxicity and carcinogenicity. The U.S. EPA is reevaluating its dioxin risk assessment and, as part of this process, will be developing risk assessment approaches for chemicals, such as dioxin, whose toxicity is receptor-mediated. This paper describes a receptor-mediated physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PB-PK) model for the tissue distribution and enzyme-inducing properties of dioxin and discusses the potential role of these models in a biologically motivated risk assessment. In this model, ternary interactions among the Ah receptor, dioxin, and DNA binding sites lead to enhanced production of specific hepatic proteins. The model was used to examine the tissue disposition of dioxin and the induction of both a dioxin-binding protein (presumably, cytochrome P4501A2), and cytochrome P4501A1. Tumor promotion correlated more closely with predicted induction of P4501A1 than with induction of hepatic binding proteins. Although increased induction of these proteins is not expected to be causally related to tumor formation, these physiological dosimetry and gene-induction response models will be important for biologically motivated dioxin risk assessments in determining both target tissue dose of dioxin and gene products and in examining the relationship between these gene products and the cellular events more directly involved in tumor promotion.     

建筑产品的全寿命周期环境影响评价

建筑产品在人类的生产和生活中占据重要位置，但其在给人类带来各种享受的同时，又成为资源、能源的主要消耗者及生态环境的主要污染源。本文将全寿命周期评价（LCA）方法应用到城市建设领域，从资源利用、能源消耗和污染排放三个方面，提出了建筑产品环境影响评价的定量模型，旨在利用评价指标推动建筑产品的清洁生产，促进建筑业的可持续发展。     

“掌握学习”教学理论在高校普修篮球课技术教学中的应用研究

"掌握学习"教学理论就是学生在最佳教学、有足够时间的条件下掌握学习材料的一种教学方式。本文主要采用了文献资料法、数理统计法、专家访谈法、问卷调查法和教学实验法等五种研究方法,完成了"掌握学习"教学理论在篮球普修技术教学中的实验研究。     

Uncertainty and the Value of Information with Stochastic Losses from Global Warming

We present an uncertainty analysis conducted using CETA-R, a model in which the costs of climate change are specified as Risks of large losses. In this analysis, we assume that three key parameters may each take on "high" or "low" values, leading to eight possible states of the world. We then explore optimal policies when the state of the world is known, and under uncertainty. Also, we estimate the benefits of resolving uncertainty earlier. We find that the optimal policy under uncertainty is similar to the policy that is optimal when each of the key parameters is at its low value. We also find that the value of immediate uncertainty resolution rises sharply as the alternative to immediate resolution is increasingly delayed resolution.     

Eliciting Information from Experts on the Likelihood of Rapid Climate Change

The threat of so‐called rapid or abrupt climate change has generated considerable public interest because of its potentially significant impacts. The collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, for example, would have potentially catastrophic effects on temperatures and sea level, respectively. But how likely are such extreme climatic changes? Is it possible actually to estimate likelihoods? This article reviews the societal demand for the likelihoods of rapid or abrupt climate change, and different methods for estimating likelihoods: past experience, model simulation, or through the elicitation of expert judgments. The article describes a survey to estimate the likelihoods of two characterizations of rapid climate change, and explores the issues associated with such surveys and the value of information produced. The surveys were based on key scientists chosen for their expertise in the climate science of abrupt climate change. Most survey respondents ascribed low likelihoods to rapid climate change, due either to the collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation or increased positive feedbacks. In each case one assessment was an order of magnitude higher than the others. We explore a high rate of refusal to participate in this expert survey: many scientists prefer to rely on output from future climate model simulations.