西方残障身份发展理论述评及本土化思考

积极的残障身份认同对残障者本身具有重要意义,残障身份发展是残障者实现身份认同的路径,理解残障身份发展的过程也可以让残疾人工作者更好地为残障者提供教育、康复等相关服务。本文通过梳理较为典型的西方残障身份发展理论,结合国内残障身份相关研究及本土社会文化背景展开讨论。文章认为,在西方残障身份发展理论框架下,残障者形成积极身份认同的关键在于认同并融入一套在残障社区内共享的残障文化,而在我国社会文化背景下,目前并没有一套成体系的残障文化,残障者也难以体会残障的文化身份感,国内残障者的身份认同缺少本土残障文化依靠。     

A class of additive transformation models for recurrent gap times

Abstract

The gap time between recurrent events is often of primary interest in many fields such as medical studies, and in this article, we discuss regression analysis of the gap times arising from a general class of additive transformation models. For the problem, we propose two estimation procedures, the modified within-cluster resampling (MWCR) method and the weighted risk-set (WRS) method, and the proposed estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically follow the normal distribution. In particular, the estimators have closed forms and can be easily determined, and the methods have the advantage of leaving the correlation among gap times arbitrary. A simulation study is conducted for assessing the finite sample performance of the presented methods and suggests that they work well in practical situations. Also the methods are applied to a set of real data from a chronic granulomatous disease (CGD) clinical trial.     

互联网思维与HRBP模式创新

长期以来,人力资源管理有效性对企业的积极作用得到理论与实务界的普遍认可。随着宏观经济环境的变化,企业纷纷转型升级谋求生存与持续发展,作为企业的支持系统,人力资源管理也必须寻求新型模式以适应新形势要求。在介绍HRBP模式基础之上,运用知识图谱分析方法,进一步厘清HRBP模式的发展历史、现状及未来趋势。然而,企业在实施HRBP模式过程中存在HR人员角色定位模糊、缺乏配套措施支持与HR人员胜任力不足难点,结合“互联网+”时代背景,提出融合互联网思维的HRBP模式,分别融合用户思维、平台思维以及迭代思维解决HRBP模式实施过程中的难点,从而促进HRBP模式创新与发展。     

母语在藏族大学生识记中的作用

通过对藏族大学生在识记不同语言材料时表现出不同效果的分析,从信息加工的角度阐述了母语是识记的基础,是识记表象建立的关键,母语所反映的认知取向决定了识记的侧重点。     

Markov (Set) chains application to predict mortality rates using extended Milevsky–Promislov generalized mortality models

The mortality rates ( μx,t) measure the frequency of deaths in a fixed: population and time interval. The ability to model and forecast μx,t allows determining, among others, fundamental characteristics of life expectancy tables, e.g. used to determine the amount of premium in life insurance, adequate to the risk of death. The article proposes a new method of modelling and forecasting μx,t, using the class of stochastic Milevsky–Promislov switch models with excitations. The excitations are modelled by second, fourth and sixth order polynomials of outputs from the non-Gaussian Linear Scalar Filter (nGLSF) model and taking into account the Markov (Set) chain. The Markov (Set) chain state space is defined based on even orders of the nGLSF polynomial. The model order determines the theoretical values of the death rates. The obtained results usually provide a more precise forecast of the mortality rates than the commonly used Lee–Carter model.     

Statistical inference for a relaxation index of stochastic dominance under density ratio model

Stochastic dominance is usually used to rank random variables by comparing their distributions, so it is widely applied in economics and finance. In actual applications, complete stochastic dominance is too demanding to meet, so relaxation indexes of stochastic dominance have attracted more attention. The π index, the biggest gap between two distributions, can be a measure of the degree of deviation from complete dominance. The traditional estimation method is to use the empirical distribution functions to estimate it. Considering the populations under comparison are generally of the same nature, we can link the populations through density ratio model under certain condition. Based on this model, we propose a new estimator and establish its statistical inference theory. Simulation results show that the proposed estimator substantially improves estimation efficiency and power of the tests and coverage probabilities satisfactorily match the confidence levels of the tests, which show the superiority of the proposed estimator. Finally we apply our method to a real example of the Chinese household incomes.     

Regression modelling of interval censored data based on the adaptive ridge procedure

A new method for the analysis of time to ankylosis complication on a dataset of replanted teeth is proposed. In this context of left-censored, interval-censored and right-censored data, a Cox model with piecewise constant baseline hazard is introduced. Estimation is carried out with the expectation maximisation (EM) algorithm by treating the true event times as unobserved variables. This estimation procedure is shown to produce a block diagonal Hessian matrix of the baseline parameters. Taking advantage of this interesting feature in the EM algorithm, a L0 penalised likelihood method is implemented in order to automatically determine the number and locations of the cuts of the baseline hazard. This procedure allows to detect specific areas of time where patients are at greater risks for ankylosis. The method can be directly extended to the inclusion of exact observations and to a cure fraction. Theoretical results are obtained which allow to derive statistical inference of the model parameters from asymptotic likelihood theory. Through simulation studies, the penalisation technique is shown to provide a good fit of the baseline hazard and precise estimations of the resulting regression parameters.     

Misspecification of a binary dependent variable in the logistic model controlling for the repeated longitudinal measures

Many medical applications are interested to know the disease status. The disease status can be related to multiple serial measurements. Nevertheless, owing to various reasons, the binary outcome can be measured incorrectly. The estimators derived from the misspecified outcome can be biased. This paper derives the complete data likelihood function to incorporate both the multiple serial measurements and the misspecified outcome. Owing to the latent variables, EM algorithm is used to derive the maximum-likelihood estimators. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to compare the impact of misspecification on the estimates. A retrospective data for the recurrence of atrial fibrillation is used to illustrate the usage of the proposed model.     

能源电力衍生品的设计、定价及风险管理

在对国外电力现货市场分析的基础上,根据能源电力的发、输、配、售4个环节讨论了电力金融衍生品的几个重要应用。进一步对电力价格的运动模型做了总结和回顾,并对电力金融衍生品的定价方法做了评论。对此的分析和评论有助于业界管理电力市场所带来风险以及研究者理解电力衍生品的设计、定价和风险管理。