A simple two-step procedure using the Fellegi–Sunter model for frequency-based record linkage

The widely used Fellegi–Sunter model for probabilistic record linkage does not leverage information contained in field values and consequently leads to identical classification of match status regardless of whether records agree on rare or common values. Since agreement on rare values is less likely to occur by chance than agreement on common values, records agreeing on rare values are more likely to be matches. Existing frequency-based methods typically rely on knowledge of error probabilities associated with field values and frequencies of agreed field values among matches, often derived using prior studies or training data. When such information is unavailable, applications of these methods are challenging. In this paper, we propose a simple two-step procedure for frequency-based matching using the Fellegi–Sunter framework to overcome these challenges. Matching weights are adjusted based on frequency distributions of the agreed field values among matches and non-matches, estimated by the Fellegi–Sunter model without relying on prior studies or training data. Through a real-world application and simulation, our method is found to produce comparable or better performance than the unadjusted method. Furthermore, frequency-based matching provides greater improvement in matching accuracy when using poorly discriminating fields with diminished benefit as the discriminating power of matching fields increases.     

“How Exposed Is Exposed Enough?” Lay Inferences About Chemical Exposure

The concept of exposure is central to chemical risk assessment and plays an important role in communicating to the public about the potential health risks of chemicals. Research on chemical risk perception has found some indication that the model lay people use to judge chemical exposure differs from that of toxicologists, thereby leading to different conclusions about chemical safety. This paper presents the results of a series of studies directed toward developing a model for understanding how lay people interpret the concept of chemical exposure. The results indicate that people's beliefs about chemical exposure (and its risks) are based on two broad categories of inferences. One category of inferences relates to the nature in which contact with a chemical has taken place, including the amount of a chemical involved and its potential health consequences. A second category of inferences about chemical exposure relates to the pragmatics of language interpretation, leading to beliefs about the motives and purposes behind chemical risk communication. Risk communicators are encouraged to consider how alternative models of exposure and language interpretation can lead to conflicting conclusions on the part of the public about chemical safety.     

Emergency Planning for Hazardous Industrial Areas: A Brazilian Case Study

One of the characteristics of modern industrial development is the emergence of a new typology of accidents whose effects can be spread, in space as well as in time, well beyond the borders of the installations where they occur, sometimes impacting the local population and the environment in a catastrophic fashion. This is the result of a number of factors that have changed the risk profile of modern industrial activities. For a number of reasons, the developing countries have proved to be more vulnerable to industrial disasters. Three of the most catastrophic industrial accidents—Bhopal, San Juan de Ixhuatepec, and Cubatão—occurred in developing countries, claiming thousands of lives. During the 1970s and 1980s the higher degree of public visibility of industrial hazards as a result of serious accidents, led to the creation, especially in the more industrialized countries, of regulations for greater control over industrial activities, either by means of new laws or by updating existing legislation. Some of these regulations were designed to improve the response to accidents with potential impacts outside the industrial sites. This article attempts to describe the current status and identify the shortcomings of off‐site emergency planning for hazardous industrial areas in Brazil. The most important problems are the lack of specific legislation and the absence of awareness and active participation of public authorities. The experience of an off‐site emergency planning process for a Brazilian industrial area is presented. This experience illustrates how difficult it is to prepare and implement emergency planning processes in an industrializing country.     

《骆驼祥子》中的戏仿及其意义

在《骆驼祥子》中,祥子和虎妞“恋爱”婚姻生活具有相对独立性,是对才子佳人模式的戏仿。老舍的戏仿从思想上对以才子佳人婚姻模式为代表的市民婚姻文化心理进行了批判,从艺术上对这种叙述模式形成颠覆作用。     

The East Asian welfare model

This article aims to outline main features of the East Asian welfare model, to understand its past development and assess lessons that can be learned for other developing and developed countries. It describes the particular path of welfare state development in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, by focusing particularly on developmental and political aspects of welfare state development. In the final part of the study, particular features of the East Asian welfare model are outlined, and thus the existence of a distinct, ideal-typical welfare regime in East Asia substantiated.     

Collective empowerment: A comparative study of community work in Mumbai and Stockholm

Mumbai and Stockholm are worlds apart in terms of public services, infrastructures and standard of living. However, both cities have known common problems of social exclusion and marginalisation related to neo‐liberal globalisation. Social workers are facing similar challenges regarding collective empowerment as a strategy for community work. This comparative study explored how collective empowerment is undertaken by community workers. The research participants were 13 informants from community‐work organisations in the two settings. Semi‐structured interviews were used and were analysed with the help of Atlas‐ti 6.2 (ATLAS.ti Scientific Software Development GmbH D‐10623 Berlin Germany). Social work in Mumbai is in a context of extreme poverty and mainly within the informal sector, whereas in Stockholm most social work is done in relation to a public welfare model. In Stockholm, interventions are aimed towards strengthening social networks, without direct aim at social change. In Mumbai, community workers organise people for collective empowerment to strengthen marginalised groups and achieve social change.     

高新技术企业基层主管胜任力测度模型研究

胜任力模型是制定人力资源管理相关决策的基础,已有文献关注的重点是中高层管理者,对基层主管胜任力的研究相对薄弱。少量研究构建的基层主管胜任力模型与组织发展需求存在一定的滞后性。因此,选择基层主管胜任力作为关注焦点,构建与高新技术企业情境相对应的基层主管胜任力结构及测度模型,提出了基层主管胜任力的2阶8维的概念模型;采用360度和问卷调查相结合的方法收集大样本数据进行修正;基于AHP确定了基层主管胜任力维度及特征指标赋权,形成了最终的基层主管胜任力测度模型。     

Hostage taking: Understanding terrorism event dynamics

This paper employs advanced time series methods to identify the dynamic properties of three hostage taking series. The immediate and long run multipliers of three covariates—successful past negotiations, violent ends, and deaths—are identified. Each hostage series responds differently to the covariates. Past concessions have the strongest impact on generating future kidnapping events, supporting the conventional wisdom to abide by a stated no-concession policy. Each hostage series has different changepoints caused by a variety of circumstances. Skyjackings and kidnappings are negatively correlated, while skyjackings and other hostage events are positively correlated. Policy recommendations are offered.     

The relationship between conflict events and commodity prices in Sudan

Though recent literature uncovers linkages between commodity prices and conflict, the causal direction of the relationship remains ambiguous. We attempt to contribute to this strand of research by studying the dynamic relationship of commodity prices and the onsets of conflict events in Sudan. Using monthly data ranging from January 2001 through December 2012, we identify a structural breakpoint in the multivariate time series model of prices of the three staple foods (sorghum, millet, and wheat) and conflict measure (number of conflict events) in September of 2011. Applying structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and linear non-Gaussian acyclic model (LiNGAM), we find that wheat price fluctuation is a root cause of conflict events in Sudan. We recommend several policy and programmatic suggestions structured toward production, subsidy, price regulation and support for rural farmers and consumers to stabilize commodity prices.