大学生的主动性与创业意向的关系: 创业知识的中介作用

大学生是中国大众创业和万众创新事业的生力军。研究大学生创业倾向,对助力激发创新活力具有现实意义。将创业榜样作为触发大学生创业倾向的前因变量,同时引入创业激情和主动性人格,建立理论模型,以探讨创业榜样对创业倾向的作用。通过问卷调查获取数据,并运用结构模型和多元线性回归模型来验证研究假设。结果表明：创业榜样正向影响创业激情;创业激情越强烈,大学生创业倾向也越明显;主动性人格在创业激情对创业倾向的影响上具有调节效应,当主动性人格水平较高时,创业激情对创业倾向的正向影响更显著。据此提出,政府和高校在创业教育中要重视发挥创业榜样的作用,应采取多种措施激发大学生创业激情,同时强化对大学生主动性人格的培养。

     

风险投资过程中投资者对风险投资家的激励机制研究

目的/意义结合政府引导基金参股子基金投资运作的多任务特征,设计面向双重任务的激励契约能够引导基金管理人合理分配努力投入,从而提高投资运作的效率,确保政策目标的实现。设计/方法引入任务重要性系数、努力成本系数和可测绩效方差,构建双重任务下基金管理人的激励契约,并在两项任务独立、互补和替代3种情形下,分析了相关参数对激励契约的影响。结论/发现当两项任务相互关联时,对给定任务的激励同时受到与两项任务有关参数变化的影响,与另一项任务有关的参数变化对给定任务施加影响的方向取决于两项任务的关联属性。引导基金应根据任务的重要性、努力成本和可观测性的不同制定差异化的激励方案,并根据相关参数的变化对两项任务的激励水平进行调整。     

Evaluation of Proactive and Reactive Strategies for Polio Eradication Activities in Pakistan and Afghanistan

Only Pakistan and Afghanistan reported any polio cases caused by serotype 1 wild polioviruses (WPV1s) in 2017. With the dwindling cases in both countries and pressure to finish eradication with the least possible resources, a danger exists of inappropriate prioritization of efforts between the two countries and insufficient investment in the two countries to finish the job. We used an existing differential‐equation‐based poliovirus transmission and oral poliovirus (OPV) evolution model to simulate a proactive strategy to stop transmission, and different hypothetical reactive strategies that adapt the quality of supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) in response to observed polio cases in Pakistan and Afghanistan. To account for the delay in perception and adaptation, we related the coverage of the SIAs in high‐risk, undervaccinated subpopulations to the perceived (i.e., smoothed) polio incidence. Continuation of the current frequency and quality of SIAs remains insufficient to eradicate WPV1 in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Proactive strategies that significantly improve and sustain SIA quality lead to WPV1 eradication and the prevention of circulating vaccine‐derived poliovirus (cVDPV) outbreaks. Reactive vaccination efforts that adapt moderately quickly and independently to changes in polio incidence in each country may succeed in WPV1 interruption after several cycles of outbreaks, or may interrupt WPV1 transmission in one country but subsequently import WPV1 from the other country or enable the emergence of cVDPV outbreaks. Reactive vaccination efforts that adapt independently and either more rapidly or more slowly to changes in polio incidence in each country may similarly fail to interrupt WPV1 transmission and result in oscillations of the incidence. Reactive strategies that divert resources to the country of highest priority may lead to alternating large outbreaks. Achieving WPV1 eradication and subsequent successful OPV cessation in Pakistan and Afghanistan requires proactive and sustained efforts to improve vaccination intensity in under‐vaccinated subpopulations while maintaining high population immunity elsewhere.     

Stages of Supply Chain Disruption Response: Direct,Constraining, and Mediating Factors for Impact Mitigation

It is well established that supply chain disruptions can have a severe negative impact on firms and general wisdom suggests that this impact can be mitigated by quick responses. Aside from a few anecdotes, however, little is known about the decision‐making process that leads to speedy responses and about its impeding and supporting antecedents. Using the organizational information‐processing perspective, this empirical study unravels the disruption management process along a sequence of four stages—disruption recognition, disruption diagnosis, response development, and response implementation—and hypothesizes constraining and mediating effects of these stages. The findings contribute to an improved understanding of the role that the decision stages play in mitigating supply chain disruptions, and confirm the prediction that the speed with which information is processed and the stages are worked through positively affects supply chain performance. In addition, the findings suggest that one of the stages, diagnosis, acts as a constraining factor to the other stages. The stages also play a mediating role between the impact that the disruption has and a firm's readiness (prior to a disruption), dependence on a key supplier, and supply chain complexity. This provides guidance to decision makers in the application of resources both prior to a negative event and during a disruption recovery.     

信心、货币政策与中国经济波动关系的统计检验

文章基于时变视角,依据行为经济学理论,构建了一个包含企业家信心、投资者信心、利率、货币增长率、经济增长率和通货膨胀率六变量的TVP-VAR模型,研究信心、货币政策与经济波动之间的时变特征。结果表明:企业家信心和投资者信心能够影响利率和货币增长率,即信心可以通过影响货币政策进而作用于宏观经济。货币增长率和利率能够影响投资者信心和企业家信心,进而可以通过信心影响宏观经济。从时变角度看,企业家信心一单位的正向冲击在整个样本区间内均会促进经济的增长;在短期内投资者信心和货币增长率对经济增长具有促进作用,但是在长期内货币增长率的提高会阻碍经济的增长。     

中国经济波动的跨境资本流动效应研究

文章采用21个国家1993—2017年的季度数据构建GVAR模型,分析了中国经济波动对世界主要经济体跨境资本净流入的影响。结果显示,来自中国的GDP、利率和汇率冲击对美国、日本、金砖国家和本国的资本净流入影响较大,并且这些变量对金砖国家和本国跨境资本净流入的贡献率显著大于其他经济体。随着中国经济占全球比重的不断上升,其经济波动对主要经济体跨境资本流动的影响不断增强,因此,中国在经济结构调整和提升对外开放度的同时,应尽量保持经济稳定,加强与世界其他经济体的交流与沟通。     

资产定价中的市场流动性—流动性文献综述

目的/意义流动性是证券市场的生命力,理解流动性与资产定价之间的关系是理解金融危机的核心。2015年中国股灾的发生使得流动性成为关注焦点,更引发了对股灾过程中相关交易机制如何影响市场流动性的思考。设计/方法通过系统回顾证券市场流动性相关的研究文献,包括流动性的定义、流动性的测度、流动性与资产定价的关系,以及流动性共振及其影响因素,对2015年股灾发生的微观机理以及杠杆交易和涨跌幅限制在股灾过程中的作用机制进行了重点剖析和评述。结论/发现杠杆交易的强制平仓机制使得股市在下行过程中形成了严重的“流动性螺旋”效应,而价格涨跌幅限制进一步加剧了市场的流动性枯竭,最终导致股灾发生。     

企业多项目风险管理模型与方法研究

介绍了企业项目管理的发展,分析了单项目风险管理模型在企业项目管理应用的问题。提出了基于企业多项目风险管理的项目组合风险管理模型和项目集风险管理模型,建议企业成立项目组合风险管理部,通过多项目风险管理集成信息系统对风险进行有效管理。     

组织文化因素对组织效率影响的模型建立与分析

目前要增强组织效率,提高组织的综合竞争能力,已不可能单纯依靠技术、货币等物质因素,还要发挥其他各种非物质因素的作用,其中,组织文化就是非常重要的非物质因素。因此,探讨组织文化与组织效率的关系是很有必要的。文章首先定性分析了组织文化因素对组织效率的影响,然后是组织文化对组织效率影响的定量实证分析。通过建立组织文化价值取向模型,进行实际的问卷调查研究以及分析所采集的数据,总结并改进了组织文化对组织效率的影响定量分析模型。     

网络个人信贷大数据风险控制

风险控制是网络个人信贷中的关键点,但网络个人信贷存在额度小和规模经营的特征,使得传统风险控制手段难于实施。大数据技术为网络个人信贷风险控制提供了有效的解决方案。本文描绘了网络个人信贷大数据风险控制的基本流程,介绍了各个主要环节中大数据技术的应用,强调了全面风险控制的理念。