综合性运动会电脑服务系统的设计与应用

介绍了在四川省第六届运动会上首次使用我们研制的中小型运动会实时处理和综合服务系统及其系统组成、功能特点及应用实况.该系统的主要特点是可靠性高、实时性好、功能强全、操作简便和经济实用.     

核事故早期应急群决策模型研究

有效快速的核事故早期应急决策,是核电站发生核事故后最后一道必要的屏障,因此决策的快速性与有效性至关重要。文章先构造效用函数,求出决策者的乐观系数,将决策判断矩阵中的区间值与模糊值精确化;在此基础上建立了个体与群体的决策模型,以提高决策的有效性。同时根据排序结果,构造群体与个体之间一致性判断矩阵,并根据判断矩阵进行交互与修改,使专家内部快速达成一致。最后通过算例说明方法的可行性。     

Individual Differences in Women's Salivary Testosterone and Estradiol Following Sexual Activity in a Nonlaboratory Setting

Objectives: The current study evaluated women's salivary testosterone and estradiol levels before and after exposure to sexual stimuli in a U.S. sex club. Methods: Behavioral data and salivary samples were collected from 19 women during semistructured interviews. Results: Findings demonstrate substantial individual differences in the magnitude and direction of women's hormonal changes following sexual activity. Conclusions: In an age of individualized medicine, these findings highlight the need to better understand factors shaping variation in physiological responses to sexual activity. Findings contribute to a relatively small and contradictory literature on women's hormonal responses to sexual stimuli.     

脉冲响应函数下的我国货币需求变动与决定

基于V A R模型的脉冲响应函数法和预期方差分解法,分析了我国2000年至2013年期间的货币需求与相关经济因素之间的动态影响特征。研究表明狭义货币、广义货币分别与相关的经济变量存在长期的均衡关系。狭义货币、广义货币对GDP的冲击分别呈现抑制效应、对SV的随机冲击主要呈现正效应、对R的随机冲击主要呈现抑制效应、对CPI的冲击呈现正效应和抑制效应交叉出现的现象。狭义货币、广义货币新息冲击对其自身预测均方误差的贡献度最大。新息冲击对狭义货币预测均方误差的贡献依次为：一年期定期存款名义利率（R）、沪深两市A股总市值（SV）、国内生产总值（GDP）、消费者物价指数（CPI）。新息冲击对广义货币预测均方误差的贡献依次为：国内生产总值（GDP ）、消费者物价指数（CPI ）、一年期定期存款名义利率（R ）、沪深两市A股总市值（S V ）。根据实证结论,得出相关经济变量对货币需求的影响,并据此提出有利于完善货币政策的建议。     

To adjust or not to adjust for baseline when analyzing repeated binary responses? The case of complete data when treatment comparison at study end is of interest

The benefits of adjusting for baseline covariates are not as straightforward with repeated binary responses as with continuous response variables. Therefore, in this study, we compared different methods for analyzing repeated binary data through simulations when the outcome at the study endpoint is of interest. Methods compared included chi‐square, Fisher's exact test, covariate adjusted/unadjusted logistic regression (Adj.logit/Unadj.logit), covariate adjusted/unadjusted generalized estimating equations (Adj.GEE/Unadj.GEE), covariate adjusted/unadjusted generalized linear mixed model (Adj.GLMM/Unadj.GLMM). All these methods preserved the type I error close to the nominal level. Covariate adjusted methods improved power compared with the unadjusted methods because of the increased treatment effect estimates, especially when the correlation between the baseline and outcome was strong, even though there was an apparent increase in standard errors. Results of the Chi‐squared test were identical to those for the unadjusted logistic regression. Fisher's exact test was the most conservative test regarding the type I error rate and also with the lowest power. Without missing data, there was no gain in using a repeated measures approach over a simple logistic regression at the final time point. Analysis of results from five phase III diabetes trials of the same compound was consistent with the simulation findings. Therefore, covariate adjusted analysis is recommended for repeated binary data when the study endpoint is of interest. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

上海与纽约黄金期货价格联动关系实证分析

为研究国内外期货黄金价格之间的关联性,对2011～ 2012年间的纽约期金日收盘价格和上海期金开盘价格进行协整检验、因果检验,建立误差修正模型,进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解研究.结果表明：上海黄金期货市场与纽约黄金期货市场价格之间存在长期均衡的关系.上海期货价格受到纽约期货市场价格的影响幅度更大,时间间隔更短.     

基于VAR模型的安徽省粮食产量影响因素的实证研究

自然条件、政策环境、经济因素、技术进步等因素都会影响粮食产量。选取安徽省1990-2012年影响粮食生产的7个因素,最初,使用前向逐步回归分析的方法研究发现,对粮食产量影响较大的因素有粮食成灾面积、有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量3个变量。其次,Johansen协整检验阐释了这3个变量与粮食总产量之间的关系,并构造脉冲响应函数及进行方差分解得出这3个变量对总产量的贡献度为：粮食成灾面积〉化肥施用量〉有效灌溉面积。所以,增强农业工程的防灾减灾效果,提升农田水利基础设施的使用效率,科学控制化肥施用量对提高安徽省粮食综合生产能力具有重大作用。     

政治学视角下构建政务微博回应机制的探讨--基于常州政务微博的个案分析

回应性是衡量政府善治程度和社会民主发展的重要维度,也是创建服务型政府的必要因素。政务微博作为互联网时代下政府与民众沟通的新型平台,承担着通过加强回应性进而提高政府服务能力和程度的功能。然而就目前所做的个案分析来看,政务微博因管理理念的落后以及方法上的失当,其信息发布过于泛化,互动程度较弱的同时,回应也同样呈现出弱势的特征。因而,通过微博管理观念的更新以及具体运营方法上的变革提高政务微博的互动与回应性,成为政务微博长远发展的可行策略。     

马克思主义的时代回应

在深入领会“三个代表”重要思想的科学内涵,特别是“代表中国先进文化的前进方向”的基础上,正确运用汤因比“挑战——应战”模式,分析世界和中国哲学界存在的各种思潮之间,包括主流和边缘之间的互动关系,可以看出“三个代表”重要思想是对于现代挑战的应战。