需求响应下解决交叉补贴的阶梯电价方案研究——基于社会福利最大化视角

我国电价交叉补贴问题非常严重，其无论从经济效率还是公平上而言都是不合理的，必须尽快解决。通过对现行电价政策分析，阶梯电价政策可以解决交叉补贴问题，但现行方案效果不明显，因此需要调整。不仅如此，由于各档次用户对电价变化的需求响应程度存在差异，调整阶梯电价来解决交叉补贴的方案有许多，故存在一个社会福利最大化的解决方案。本文以社会福利最大化为目标，调整各档用户的电价，同时引入拉格朗日函数，设计出最优解决交叉补贴问题的阶梯电价方案，得到各档相应的电价比值。结果表明，当分档电价比值为1：1.62：2.41时社会福利存在极大值，此时阶梯电价方案是众多方案中的最优方案，社会福利全年增加约为702.00亿元。此方案在解决交叉补贴问题的基础上还兼顾了用户间公平和承受能力，对当前电价改革具有重要参考价值。     

An improved randomized response model: estimation of mean

In this paper, we suggest a new randomized response model useful for collecting information on quantitative sensitive variables such as drug use and income. The resultant estimator has been found to be better than the usual additive randomized response model. An interesting feature of the proposed model is that it is free from the known parameters of the scrambling variable unlike the additive model due to Himmelfarb and Edgell [S. Himmelfarb and S.E. Edgell, Additive constant model: a randomized response technique for eliminating evasiveness to quantitative response questions, Psychol. Bull. 87(1980), 525–530]. Relative efficiency of the proposed model has also been studied with the corresponding competitors. At the end, an application of the proposed model has been discussed.     

Estimation of a rare sensitive attribute for two-stage randomized response model in probability proportional to size sampling using Poisson probability distribution

This paper addresses the estimation of the mean number of individuals in the population who possess a rare sensitive attribute using Poisson distribution for the situations of (i) clustered population and (ii) stratified population with clusters are strata units. Properties of the proposed estimation procedures have been discussed when the proportion of a rare unrelated non-sensitive attribute is assumed to be known as well as unknown. Empirical studies are carried out to support the theoretical results which showed dominance over Lee et al. [Estimation of a rare sensitive attribute in probability proportional to size measures using Poisson distribution. Statistics (Ber). 2014;48(3):685–709] estimation procedures.     

Patient-specific dose finding in phase I clinical trials

This article proposes an extension of the continual reassessment method to determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in the presence of patients' heterogeneity in phase I clinical trials. To start with a simple case, we consider the covariate as a binary variable representing two groups of patients. A logistic regression model is used to establish the dose–response relationship and the design is based on the Bayesian framework. Simulation studies for six plausible dose–response scenarios show that the proposed design is likely to determine the MTD more accurately than the design that does not take covariate into consideration.     

Demonstrating the Benefits of Predictive Bayesian Dose–Response Relationships Using Six Exposure Studies of Cryptosporidium parvum

A conventional dose–response function can be refitted as additional data become available. A predictive dose–response function in contrast does not require a curve-fitting step, only additional data and presents the unconditional probabilities of illness, reflecting the level of information it contains. In contrast, the predictive Bayesian dose–response function becomes progressively less conservative as more information is included. This investigation evaluated the potential for using predictive Bayesian methods to develop a dose–response for human infection that improves on existing models, to show how predictive Bayesian statistical methods can utilize additional data, and expand the Bayesian methods for a broad audience including those concerned about an oversimplification of dose–response curve use in quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). This study used a dose–response relationship incorporating six separate data sets for Cryptosporidium parvum. A Pareto II distribution with known priors was applied to one of the six data sets to calibrate the model, while the others were used for subsequent updating. While epidemiological principles indicate that local variations, host susceptibility, and organism strain virulence may vary, the six data sets all appear to be well characterized using the Bayesian approach. The adaptable model was applied to an existing data set for Campylobacter jejuni for model validation purposes, which yielded results that demonstrate the ability to analyze a dose–response function with limited data using and update those relationships with new data. An analysis of the goodness of fit compared to the beta-Poisson methods also demonstrated correlation between the predictive Bayesian model and the data.     

板柱-剪力墙超限高层建筑结构地震反应分析及处理措施

为了验证板柱-剪力墙超限高层建筑结构是否满足抗震设防要求，以具体超限高层建筑结构工程为例，采用SAP2000MIDAS，ABAQUS和ANSYS程序对其结构在不同工况下的动力反应进行了分析对比．结果表明，板柱-剪力墙超限高层建筑通过采用合理的结构方案及适当的抗震措施，能够满足抗震设防要求，对进一步了解此类结构的性能、验证结构抗震能力、完善抗震设计理论具有重要的指导意义．     

Chapter 8: Responding to Deaths of Faculty,Staff and Students at UC,Berkeley

SUMMARY

This article describes an important initiative designed to address the deaths of faculty, staff, and students at the University of California at Berkeley. Work-life and EAP practitioners can play a significant role in reducing the distress and lost work time associated with workplace deaths by helping employers to plan a response to employee and client deaths, and by participating in implementing that response. A model framework is presented to demonstrate the vital need for coordination and integration among many of the employers' programs, services, and activities in order to address deaths.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed:
Robert E., Kass and Paul W., Vos, Geometrical Foundations of Asymptotic Inference: Curved Exponential Families
G.S., Maddala and C.R., Rao, (eds) Handbook of Statistics 15: Robust Inference
Gregory C., Reinsel, Elements of Multivariate Time Series Analysis
Murray, Rosenblatt, Gaussian and Non-Gaussian Linear Time Series and Random Fields
William S., Mallios, The Analysis of Sports Forecasting: Modeling Parallels Between Sports Gambling and Financial Markets
Alain, Desrosières, The Politics of Large Numbers — A History of Statistical Reasoning
Mahmut, Parlar, Interactive Operations Research with MAPLE Methods and Models     

Expert knowledge elicitation using item response theory

In an expert knowledge elicitation exercise, experts face a carefully constructed list of questions that they answer according to their knowledge. The elicitation process concludes when a probability distribution is found that adequately captures the experts' beliefs in the light of those answers. In many situations, it is very difficult to create a set of questions that will efficiently capture the experts' knowledge, since experts might not be able to make precise probabilistic statements about the parameter of interest. We present an approach for capturing expert knowledge based on item response theory, in which a set of binary response questions is proposed to the expert, trying to capture responses directly related to the quantity of interest. As a result, the posterior distribution of the parameter of interest will represent the elicited prior distribution that does not assume any particular parametric form. The method is illustrated by a simulated example and by an application involving the elicitation of rain prophets' predictions for the rainy season in the north-east of Brazil.     

考虑竖向地震作用时连续梁桥地震反应分析

以赵家堡大桥为研究对象，重点研究考虑竖向地震作用时高烈度地震区桥梁的地震反应行为，分别计算了赵家堡大桥在50 a超越概率63.5%的安评地震波P1作用和50 a超越概率10%的安评地震波P2作用下的地震反应。通过对该桥的地震反应分析，得到了竖向地震对该桥地震响应的影响情况，并给出考虑竖向地震作用的参考建议。