Three-group ROC predictive analysis for ordinal outcomes

Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic tests is crucial in many application areas including medicine, machine learning, and credit scoring. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) surface is a useful tool to assess the ability of a diagnostic test to discriminate among three-ordered classes or groups. In this article, nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) for three-group ROC analysis for ordinal outcomes is presented. NPI is a frequentist statistical method that is explicitly aimed at using few modeling assumptions, enabled through the use of lower and upper probabilities to quantify uncertainty. This article also includes results on the volumes under the ROC surfaces and consideration of the choice of decision thresholds for the diagnosis. Two examples are provided to illustrate our method.     

中国黄金期货市场价格发现功能研究

黄金期货在国内上市三年有余,其价格发现功能发挥如何?本文利用上市以来的972个黄金期货和黄金现货样本数据对黄金期货市场功能发挥情况进行了量化研究。分别采用了协整理论、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果分析和脉冲响应函数进行分析。结果显示黄金期货市场已经渐渐发挥其价格发现功能,但并不十分显著,究其原因,与交易制度密切相关。     

我国统一货币政策调控的区域效应非对称性分析

由于人民币升值的压力和我国国际收支的双顺差,外国资产迅速扩张,外汇占款成了我国基础货币的主要投放渠道。由于各区域的经济对外开放程度存在差异,统一的货币政策在不同区域的效应可能存在差异。通过对我国2004年第1季度至2011年第2季度央行统一的货币政策操作在不同区域的政策效应的非对称性进行了理论分析和实证检验,认为对东中西部应分别采用不同的货币政策。     

双液注浆锚管加固在渗水软弱围岩浅埋偏压隧道中的应用

通过乌坑坝隧道北京端左线冲沟地段的施工实例，介绍渗水软弱围岩浅埋偏压隧道地表双液注浆锚管加固的施工方法，并对加固效果及其优缺点进行分析．     

Designs for estimating the difference between two responses

In this paper the problem of designing experiments for estimating the difference between responses at two arbitrary points in the region of interest is considered. Under the average mean squared error criterion the design moment conditions have been worked out. The results have been applied to the class of central composite designs.     

On Second-Order A-, D- and E-Minimax Designs for Estimating Slopes in Extrapolation and Restricted Interpolation Regions

Summary

The concepts of D-, A- and E-minimax optimality criteria of designs for estimating the slopes of a response surface are considered for situations where the region of interest may not be identical to the experimental region. Optimal second-order designs are derived for the situation where the experimental region and the region of interest are both hyperspherical with a common centre. The dependence of the optimal design on the relative sizes of the regions is investigated. Further, the perfomance of designs optimal for one region in estimating slopes in other regions is also examined.     

Sensitivity studies of air scattered neutron dose from particle accelerators

Sensitivity analysis of air scattered neutron dose at several distances from a particle accelerator with respect to shield thickness and neutron yield distributions has been carried out. We illustrate the successful use of Response Surface Methodology in studying the behaviour of the sensitivity coefficients for main effects and interaction terms. A comparison of the full six factor design and the orthogonal Central Composite Design has been made. The overhead shield is found to be the most sensitive parameter followed by the high energy part of the neutron energy distribution.     

基于DirectX的气象雷达实时显示技术研究

提出了一种在Windows操作系统下的图像实时显示新型方法,该方法充分应用DirectX的更好的兼容性和更有效的图形加速特性,使用多缓存区进行图像数据存储、实时插值和边缘平滑处理、绘画和页面翻转的技术.以上技术使得气象回波的PPI和RHI显示更逼真地复现了天气的实时变化情况,并且显著地改进了系统的实时处理性能.实验结果证明了使用该技术的有效性和可行性.     

新型水泥混凝土路面修补材料的研究现状与展望

通过对水泥混凝土路面损坏原因的分析，阐述路面修补材料的性能要求，说明路面修补材料在国内外 的研究现状及存在的问题，提出新型水泥混凝土路面修补材料的发展方向．     

碱改性高岭土的吸油性能研究

利用NaOH浸提高温煅烧的高岭土,考察了碱的浓度、碱与高岭土的比例、反应温度和反应时间等因素对高岭土改性后吸油性能的影响,采用DTA-TG、XRD、BET、SEM、TEM等方法对碱改性高岭土的性能进行测试。实验结果表明,3 mol/L NaOH以碱土比6 mL/g在90℃下处理高岭土2h后,所得改性高岭土的吸油值大幅度提高,这归因于碱改性高岭土后平均孔径得到提高,孔分布更为集中,孔洞数量和比表面积大大增加。