金融危机下进出口商品总额变动对我国居民消费价格指数影响的实证分析

首先运用单位根检验和协整检验分析指标变量的平稳性,其次对各指标变量建立VAR模型,利用脉冲效应函数和方差分解以及Granger检验进行分析,得出进出口商品总额对CPI的直接影响较小,但间接影响不容忽视且影响期长。     

基于CAT大学英语学业测试语料库建设的探讨

计算机在教学领域的广泛应用,极大地促进着外语教学与测试的研究。建立基于计算机的校本大学英语学业测试语料库,已成为改革测试模式、提高教学质量的重要组成部分。文章在探讨有关测试理论的基础上,提出了创建基于计算机适应性学业测试语料库的主要原则和实际做法,同时设计了该库的计算机适应性运行与管理系统。     

品牌需求价格弹性与市场份额的关系——对国内彩电行业的实证研究

本文运用log-log市场反应函数,对国内彩电行业中品牌市场份额对品牌价格弹性的影响进行了实证研究。研究结果发现,彩电品牌市场份额对其需求价格弹性绝对值有正向显著影响,这一结论明显区别于国外实证研究的结果,其原由反映了转型过程中国内彩电市场的基本特征。本文的结果及原因分析,对中国彩电企业的营销实践具有重要指导意义。     

Multi-arm response-adaptive designs for circular responses

A multi-arm response-adaptive allocation design is developed for circular treatment outcomes. Several exact and asymptotic properties of the design are studied. Stage-wise treatment selection procedures based on the proposed response-adaptive design are also suggested to exclude the worse performing treatment(s) at earlier stages. Detailed simulation study is carried out to evaluate the proposed selection procedures. The applicability of the proposed methodologies is illustrated through a real clinical trial data on cataract surgery.     

Unstructured principal fitted response reduction in multivariate regression

In this paper, an unstructured principal fitted response reduction approach is proposed. The new approach is mainly different from two existing model-based approaches, because a required condition is assumed in a covariance matrix of the responses instead of that of a random error. Also, it is invariant under one of popular ways of standardizing responses with its sample covariance equal to the identity matrix. According to numerical studies, the proposed approach yields more robust estimation than the two existing methods, in the sense that its asymptotic performances are not severely sensitive to various situations. So, it can be recommended that the proposed method should be used as a default model-based method.     

转型期地方政府公务员培训问题论析及应对方略———基于江苏省的调研

当下,我国已进入改革发展关键期,执政环境的深刻变化对公务员价值观念、思维方式、领导能力构成新挑战,也对公务员培训工作提出新要求.长期以来,纯政府型供给带来了公务员培训“质冶与“量冶的双重困境.由此,寻求公务员培训市场化路径,因应了公务员培训体制和运行机制改革的迫切情势.考虑到公务员培训产品的政治性、准公共性,“有限市场化冶是破解公务员培训难题的新思维.推进公务员培训“有限市场化冶,需要在完善多元主体并存的公务员培训供给体系、形成多种渠道互补的经费保障体制、建立需求导向型的公务员培训运行机制、培育竞争有序的市场发展机制等方面下功夫.     

Implementation of ridge analysis on quadratic response surfaces

A computer program that performs ridge analysis on quadratic response surfaces is presented in this paper, the primary goal of which is to seek the estimated optimum operating conditions inside a spherical region of experimentation during the stage of process optimization. The computational algorithm is developed based upon the trust-region methods in nonlinear optimization and guarantees the resulting operating conditions to be globally optimal without any priori assumption on the structure of response functions. Under a particular condition termed the "hard case" arising from the trust region literature, the conventional ridge analysis procedure fails to provide a set of acceptable optimum operating settings, yet the proposed algorithm has the capability of locating a pair of non-unique global solutions achieved on an identical estimated response value. Two illustrative examples taken from the response surface methodology (RSM) literature are given to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the method addressed in the paper.     

The performance of subset response surface designs for estimating third order terms

Response surface designs are widely used in industries like chemicals, foods, pharmaceuticals, bioprocessing, agrochemicals, biology, biomedicine, agriculture and medicine. One of the major objectives of these designs is to study the functional relationship between one or more responses and a number of quantitative input factors. However, biological materials have more run to run variation than in many other experiments, leading to the conclusion that smaller response surface designs are inappropriate. Thus designs to be used in these research areas should have greater replication. Gilmour (2006) introduced a wide class of designs called “subset designs” which are useful in situations in which run to run variation is high. These designs allow the experimenter to fit the second order response surface model. However, there are situations in which the second order model representation proves to be inadequate and unrealistic due to the presence of lack of fit caused by third or higher order terms in the true response surface model. In such situations it becomes necessary for the experimenter to estimate these higher order terms. In this study, the properties of subset designs, in the context of the third order response surface model, are explored.     

基于生态范式的南京青奥会主题标语翻译

以南京青奥会主题标语的翻译为例，对主题标语提出时的生态环境作出了全新的阐释；同时以生态范式下的多维转换为原则，对主题标语的翻译进行了深入探讨。     

Efficient sampling on the simplex with a self-adjusting logit transform proposal

A vector of k positive coordinates lies in the k-dimensional simplex when the sum of all coordinates in the vector is constrained to equal 1. Sampling distributions efficiently on the simplex can be difficult because of this constraint. This paper introduces a transformed logit-scale proposal for Markov Chain Monte Carlo that naturally adjusts step size based on the position in the simplex. This enables efficient sampling on the simplex even when the simplex is high dimensional and/or includes coordinates of differing orders of magnitude. Implementation of this method is shown with the SALTSampler R package and comparisons are made to other simpler sampling schemes to illustrate the improvement in performance this method provides. A simulation of a typical calibration problem also demonstrates the utility of this method.