农民工的城市融入:财政压力—政策响应模型的构建

福利是影响农民工在城市融入程度的重要因素。财政压力—政策响应模型的基本思路是:福利政策效应取决于财政压力、政策响应能力,而政策响应能力主要受筹资能力和政策协调性的影响。对农民工福利政策相关要素进行分析即形成明晰的福利清单。从政府对农民工福利供给的责任看,流入地政府是农民工福利供给的主要承担者,中央政府和流出地政府在农民工福利供给中也要承担必要的财政责任。     

Design and analysis of mixture experiments with process variable

A mixture experiment is an experiment in which the response is assumed to depend on the relative proportions of the ingredients present in the mixture and not on the total amount of the mixture. In such experiment process, variables do not form any portion of the mixture but the levels changed could affect the blending properties of the ingredients. Sometimes, the mixture experiments are costly and the experiments are to be conducted in less number of runs. Here, a general method for construction of efficient mixture experiments in a minimum number of runs by the method for projection of efficient response surface design onto the constrained region is obtained. The efficient designs with a less number of runs have been constructed for 3rd, 4th, and 5th component of mixture experiments with one process variable.     

The use of simple reparameterizations to improve the efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation for multilevel models with applications to discrete time survival models

Summary.  We consider the application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation methods to random-effects models and in particular the family of discrete time survival models. Survival models can be used in many situations in the medical and social sciences and we illustrate their use through two examples that differ in terms of both substantive area and data structure. A multilevel discrete time survival analysis involves expanding the data set so that the model can be cast as a standard multilevel binary response model. For such models it has been shown that MCMC methods have advantages in terms of reducing estimate bias. However, the data expansion results in very large data sets for which MCMC estimation is often slow and can produce chains that exhibit poor mixing. Any way of improving the mixing will result in both speeding up the methods and more confidence in the estimates that are produced. The MCMC methodological literature is full of alternative algorithms designed to improve mixing of chains and we describe three reparameterization techniques that are easy to implement in available software. We consider two examples of multilevel survival analysis: incidence of mastitis in dairy cattle and contraceptive use dynamics in Indonesia. For each application we show where the reparameterization techniques can be used and assess their performance.     

中国传媒产业面临的三种转型

中国传媒产业正面临三种转型:其一,产业重心,正经历着从以核心产品的打造为重心向着以形式产品和延伸产品的打造为重心的转型;其二,营销哲学,从“售卖”到“分享”的转型;其三,报网互动,从传统报业向数字报业的转型。2007年中国传媒业的现实发展取决于这三方面的转型是否成功、有效。     

CORRECTING FOR KURTOSIS IN DENSITY ESTIMATION

Using a global window width kernel estimator to estimate an approximately symmetric probability density with high kurtosis usually leads to poor estimation because good estimation of the peak of the distribution leads to unsatisfactory estimation of the tails and vice versa. The technique proposed corrects for kurtosis via a transformation of the data before using a global window width kernel estimator. The transformation depends on a “generalised smoothing parameter” consisting of two real-valued parameters and a window width parameter which can be selected either by a simple graphical method or, for a completely data-driven implementation, by minimising an estimate of mean integrated squared error. Examples of real and simulated data demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach, which appears suitable for a wide range of symmetric, unimodal densities. Its performance is similar to ordinary kernel estimation in situations where the latter is effective, e.g. Gaussian densities. For densities like the Cauchy where ordinary kernel estimation is not satisfactory, our methodology offers a substantial improvement.     

On group divisible response surface (GDRS) designs

In this paper some experimental situations are identified corresponding to which suitable response surface designs do not exist. A class of response surface designs is introduced to cope with these situations. Their analysis with and without blocking and methods of construction is discussed.     

A new response-adaptive design for continuous treatment responses for phase III clinical trials

A new response-adaptive design, applicable for general class of continuous response distributions, is proposed. The allocation design is studied both theoretically and numerically and compared with some existing procedures. The applicability of the proposed procedure is also illustrated using real life data sets.     

《太上感应篇》:宗教文本与社会互动的典范

以道教理念为核心，《太上感应篇》融汇了佛教和儒学的若干内容，大约成于北宋仁、徽二宗之际。其形成当与中国宗教思想的运动和平民的社会化密切相关。《太上感应篇》既是一套伦理系统，也是一套解释系统，还是一套仪式系统，在中国社会近代化的过程中具有非同一般的影响。从一个纯粹的道教修仙文本转写成为一部化俗济世的善书，再演变成为一本全面的道德和社会手册，《太上感应篇》为我们揭示了宗教文本与社会的复杂的纠结关系──宗教文本的转写来自于社会的吁求，而一经转写，它又反而成为了社会再造的依据。     

The Complexity of Evidence-Based Practice: A Case Study

In this article, the author addresses areas of complexity within evidence-based social work practice that she has encountered in her work with clients. The author offers an in-depth case study from her practice that involves the assessment and treatment of a client with a complicated diagnostic presentation. Clinical choices are discussed using a biopsychosocial framework that highlights the importance of attending to the client's specific needs as the author select interventions based on the best available research.     

Improving response to an establishment survey through the use of web-push data collection methods

ABSTRACT

The web-push method has been shown to increase web response rates in general public surveys. Response rates from two waves of the Emergency Medical Services for Children Program’s Performance Measures Survey, a state-administered establishment survey, were compared to determine if the second wave's revised, centralized implementation strategy improved response rates and consistency across states. The centralized strategy included the web-push design; a carefully timed contacts; and a three-month timeline. The results of the centralized web-push method included a higher overall response rate for a three-month period (81.0% compared to 56.6%) as well as greater consistency in results across states.