证据标准的新思考

民事诉讼证据的认定应设立标准,此在实体法和程序法以及在抑制法官的主观任意性方面皆有重要意义.证据的标准应以实事求是作为总体标准,以高度盖然性优势证据标准作为具体标准.在司法实践中,法官对总体与具体证据标准的综合运用,将有利于其主观能动性的合理发挥,保证对证据采信的准确有效.     

Change point analysis of a Gaussian model

In this paper, the testing and estimation of a single change point in means and variances of a sequence of independent Gaussian normal random variables are studied. The Schwarz Information Criterion, SIC, is used to search for the change point. The unbiased version of the SIC for this change point problem is also derived for the finite sample case. Other properties of the SIC test statistic are given as well. Finally, two examples are given at the end of this paper to illustrate the method proposed, and changes are successfully detected.     

功利主义的当代价值

功利主义的首要特征是:将快乐、安康、福利看成是唯一的善,因此功利主义被视为享乐主义在当代的发展形态,不同阶段有不同的表现形态和相应的主要代表人物,功利主义有其致命弱点,但它的产生也有社会历史意义,它所提供的以整体和未来为导向的思维方式、快乐原则和感受性标准为内容的道德智慧,在当代应用伦理学的理论与实践中具有不可替代的重要作用。     

On Bayes Linear Unbiased Estimator Under the Balanced Loss Function

In this paper, the Bayes linear unbiased estimator (Bayes LUE) is derived under the balanced loss function. Moreover, the superiority of Bayes LUE over ordinary least square estimator is studied under the mean square error matrix criterion and Pitman closeness criterion. Furthermore, we compare Bayes LUE under the balanced loss function with Bayes LUE under the quadratic loss function.     

论翻译标准与文化和意识形态的关系

翻译标准、文化和意识形态是历史的、动态的和民族的;原作者、原文读者、译者和译文读者既有其同质性也有其异质性,所以,翻译永远不可能达到绝对的"对等和忠实",也不存在单一或统一的翻译标准.     

多元互补 动态发展——也论翻译标准

古今中外的翻译标准都是行之有效的标准,但都是属于翻译标准的个性表现.文章从不同的文本类型、不同的翻译目的等因素对翻译标准的影响,说明翻译标准是一种多元、开放的体系.同时认为"文化传真"应作为此系统的总原则.     

一种基于改进的Akaike信息准则的相关关系检测的新方法

本文基于改进的Akaike信息准则(AICC),建立了一种专门适用于小样本随机变星相关关系检测的新方法。这种方法不仅把AICC准则从AR模型推广到ARMA模型,而且增加了自变量的筛选过程,使方法既是最优的又是最简的。通过分析改革以来我国宏观经济变量的相关关系,证明了方法的有效性。     

Time series forecasting with neural networks: a comparative study using the air line data

This case-study fits a variety of neural network (NN) models to the well-known air line data and compares the resulting forecasts with those obtained from the Box–Jenkins and Holt–Winters methods. Many potential problems in fitting NN models were revealed such as the possibility that the fitting routine may not converge or may converge to a local minimum. Moreover it was found that an NN model which fits well may give poor out-of-sample forecasts. Thus we think it is unwise to apply NN models blindly in 'black box' mode as has sometimes been suggested. Rather, the wise analyst needs to use traditional modelling skills to select a good NN model, e.g. to select appropriate lagged variables as the 'inputs'. The Bayesian information criterion is preferred to Akaike's information criterion for comparing different models. Methods of examining the response surface implied by an NN model are examined and compared with the results of alternative nonparametric procedures using generalized additive models and projection pursuit regression. The latter imposes less structure on the model and is arguably easier to understand.     

Analysis of the human sex ratio by using overdispersion models

For study of the human sex ratio, one of the most important data sets was collected in Saxony in the 19th century by Geissler. The data contain the sizes of families, with the sex of all children, at the time of registration of the birth of a child. These data are reanalysed to determine how the probability for each sex changes with family size. Three models for overdispersion are fitted: the beta–binomial model of Skellam, the 'multiplicative' binomial model of Altham and the double-binomial model of Efron. For each distribution, both the probability and the dispersion parameters are allowed to vary simultaneously with family size according to two separate regression equations. A finite mixture model is also fitted. The models are fitted using non-linear Poisson regression. They are compared using direct likelihood methods based on the Akaike information criterion. The multiplicative and beta–binomial models provide similar fits, substantially better than that of the double-binomial model. All models show that both the probability that the child is a boy and the dispersion are greater in larger families. There is also some indication that a point probability mass is needed for families containing children uniquely of one sex.     

水稻幼苗硝酸还原酶与叶绿素和硝态氮的含量及铵态氮吸收的关系

三种蛋白质含量不同的水稻品种,其幼苗的硝酸还原酶的活力不同,叶绿素和硝态氮的含量也不同,凡叶绿素和硝态氮含量高的其硝酸还原酶的活力也高,凡叶绿素和硝态氮含量低的其硝酸还原酶的活力也低,华03的谷粒蛋白质含量高,其幼苗根系对铵态氮的吸收能力也强。上述结果说明,蛋白质含量不同的水稻品种,其生理生化差异在幼苗期已表现对氮的吸收和利用不同。