内生规则、官方规则与社会秩序

近年来对法制本土资源、民间法的研究已呈红火之势,然而,对其中的一些基本问题却仍然没有较为清晰的认识,如民间法的构成、民间法与国家法的关系以及民间法、国家法与社会秩序之间的关系等问题就存在这样或那样的误解。本文拟从一个生活中的实例出发,力图对民间法研究中的这些基本论题,特别是后一问题作一些引玉之分析。     

Agreements About Extra-Dyadic Sex in Gay Men's Relationships: Exploring Differences in Relationship Quality by Agreement Type and Rule-Breaking Behavior

Research comparing the quality of monogamous and non-monogamous (“open”) relationships among gay men has produced mixed findings. In addition, little is known about the consequences of breaking the rules of relationship agreements about extra-dyadic sex. Results from a survey of 229 gay men in romantic relationships showed that open relationships were less passionate, but no less intimate or committed, than monogamous or “threesome-only” relationships. However, men who broke rules reported lower relationship quality overall, regardless of the relationship agreement. Thus, it is less the nature of the agreement itself than adhering to the conditions of it that influences relationship quality.     

Australian and New Zealand Indigenous mothers’ report respect for smoking bans in homes

BackgroundThere is limited data about the reasons behind residential rules to reduce environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure or the establishment or enforcement of such rules in Indigenous populations.AimWe aimed to gain an understanding of smokefree rules around Australian and New Zealand (NZ) Indigenous infants.MethodThis was a qualitative study nested within a randomised controlled trial that aimed to test the efficacy of a family-centred tobacco control programme about environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) to improve the respiratory health of Indigenous infants in Australia and New Zealand. Qualitative semi-structured interviews were conducted with 26 Indigenous mothers of infants in Australia (n = 7) and NZ (n = 19). We asked about the presence of smokefree rules, who set the rules, how the rules were set and enforced, and presence of smokefree rules in participants’ wider social circle. Interviews were audiotaped, transcribed, and inductively analysed to identify key themes.FindingsSixty-nine percent of mothers had partners, 77% smoked and all reported some presence of smokefree rules for house and car. Three main themes were identified: strategies to minimise exposure to ETS, establishing smokefree rules in homes and cars, and, adherence and enforcement of smokefree rules. Several strategies were identified to limit children's exposure to ETS, including rules to limit exposure to third-hand smoke. Mothers extended their smokefree rules to apply to other people's houses or cars, and reported that their family and social circles also had smokefree rules. The main reason for having smokefree rules was for the health of their children. Rules were most commonly set by the mother, often jointly with their partner. Few mothers reported challenges or problems with other people adhering to the smokefree rules.ConclusionWomen tried very hard to, and believed that they were effective in, protecting their children from the harmful effects of ETS exposure. In this context, health professionals need to emphasise smoking cessation in parents, so that children are maximally protected from ETS exposure.     

反腐败视域下监察机关证据补查的三种模式

随着纪检监察体制改革的持续深入,中国监察机关的证据补查体系逐渐呈现出退回重新调查、退回补充调查和直接补充证据三种模式。监察机关审理阶段证据补查的三种模式各有其形成的原因及运行机制,也都有独立存续的空间。退回重新调查模式和退回补充调查模式在监督制约监察机关调查权和保障案件质量方面具有一定的积极作用,但是两者容易引发内部机构之间的矛盾,进而导致案件办理效率降低。直接补充证据模式有助于提高案件的办理效率和促进内部和谐,但却模糊了监察机关内部机构之间的职责边界,容易引发制约不足而配合有余的风险。未来应当秉持法治意识、程序意识和证据意识,在保障内部监督制约和案件办理效率的基础上,严格依法适用监察机关证据补查的三种模式。     

Choosing an electoral rule: Values and self-interest in the lab

We study the choice of multi-person bargaining protocols in the context of politics. In politics, citizens are increasingly involved in the design of democratic rules, for instance via referendums. If they support the rule that best serves their self-interest, the outcome inevitably advantages the largest group. In this paper, we challenge this pessimistic view with an original lab experiment, in which 252 subjects participated. In the first stage, these subjects experience elections under plurality and approval voting. In the second stage, they decide which rule they want to use for extra elections. We find that egalitarian values that subjects hold outside of the lab shape their choice of electoral rule in the second stage when a rule led to a fairer distribution of payoffs compared to the other one in the first stage. The implication is that people have consistent ‘value-driven preferences’ for decision rules.     

商周妇女称谓及婚姻制度浅探

殷商甲骨文与金文以“帚”字加女子的国族名或国族姓称呼已婚成年女性,而周代文献和金文则多以国族名加国族姓呼之。凡诸候嫁女,同、异姓诸侯均可以其女媵之。有些诸侯国间保持着长期多代的互通婚姻关系以结成稳固的姻亲同盟。     

On the improvement of one-sided S control charts

The most common charting procedure used for monitoring the variance of the distribution of a quality characteristic is the S control chart. As a Shewhart-type control chart, it is relatively insensitive in the quick detection of small and moderate shifts in process variance. The performance of the S chart can be improved by supplementing it with runs rules or by varying the sample size and the sampling interval. In this work, we introduce and study one-sided adaptive S control charts, supplemented or not with one powerful runs rule, for detecting increases or decreases in process variation. The properties of the proposed control schemes are obtained by using a Markov chain approach. Furthermore, a practical guidance for the choice of the most suitable control scheme is also provided.     

Some aspects of probability forecasting

The problems of assessing, comparing and combining probability forecasts for a binary events sequence are considered. A Gaussian threshold model (analytically of closed form) is introduced which allows generation of different probability forecast sequences valid for the same events. Chi - squared type test statistics, and also a marginal-conditional method are proposed for the assessment problem, and an asymptotic normality result is given. A graphical method is developed for the comparison problem, based upon decomposing arbitrary proper scoring rules into certain elementary scoring functions. The special role of the logarithmic scoring rule is examined in the context of Neyman - Pearson theory.     

Decomposing the predictive performance of the moving average trading rule of technical analysis: the contribution of linear and non-linear dependencies in stock returns

The main purpose of this work is to decompose the predictive performance of the moving average (MA) trading rule and find out the portion that could be attributed to the possible exploitation of linear and non-linear dependencies in stock returns. Data from the General Index of the Athens Stock Exchange, from the Standard and Poor-500 Index of the New York Stock Exchange and from the Austrian Traded Index of the Vienna Stock Exchange are filtered by linear filters so as the resulting simulated ‘returns’ exhibit no serial correlation. Applying MA trading rules to both the original and the simulated indices and using a new statistical testing procedure that takes into account the sensitivity of the performance of the trading rule as a function of the length of the MA it is found that the predictive performance of the trading rule is clearly weakened when applied to the simulated indices indicating that a substantial part of the rule's predictive performance is due to the exploitation of linear dependencies in stock returns. This weakening is uneven; in general the shorter the MA length the more pronounced the attenuation.