Small sample performance of large sample tests for tobit versus p -tobit

Large sample tests for the standard To bit model versus the ^p -Tobit model by Deaton and Irish (1984) are studied. The normalized one-tailed score test by Deaton and Irish (1984) is shown to be a version of Neyman's C(α) test that is valid for the non-standard problem of the null hypothesis lying on the boundary of the parameter space. Then, this paper reports the results of Monte Carlo experiments designed to study the small sample performance of large sample tests for the standard Tobit specification versus the ^p -Tobit specification.     

Testing for Bivariate Extreme Dependence Using Kendall's Process

Abstract. New tests for the hypothesis of bivariate extreme‐value dependence are proposed. All test statistics that are investigated are continuous functionals of either Kendall's process or its version with estimated parameters. The procedures considered are based on linear combinations of moments and on Cramér–von Mises distances. A suitably adapted version of the multiplier central limit theorem for Kendall's process enables the computation of asymptotically valid p‐values. The power of the tests is evaluated for small, moderate and large sample sizes, as well as asymptotically, under local alternatives. An illustration with a real data set is presented.     

基于投入产出法的北京民航社会经济效益研究

根据投入产出法建立了衡量航空运输业对社会经济影响程度的模型,在2007年北京市投入产出表的基础上,分别从直接经济贡献、后向波及效益、前向波及效益、消费波及效益四方面测算了航空运输业对北京市社会经济的贡献,得出结论:航空运输业对北京市社会经济具有显著贡献。     

基于社会核算矩阵的厦门市产出与居民收入乘数分析

 内容提要：基于厦门市2002年投入产出表及其它相关数据,笔者构建了厦门市2002年的宏观社会核算矩阵,并对居民账户进行了细分。在此基础上,利用基于社会核算矩阵的SAM乘数模型,本文考察了各类产业在外生冲击下的产出效应和居民收入效应,并分析了外生冲击及转移支付对居民收入分配结构的影响。结果显示,产出乘数和居民收入乘数较高的行业分别是那些与其它行业具有较高关联度的行业和对社会就业带动作用较大的劳动密集型行业;厦门市当前经济的结构和转移分配都有利于改善当前居民收入差距过大的现状,但前者的效应不大。     

Estimation and testing stationarity for double-autoregressive models

Summary.  The paper considers the double-autoregressive model y _t  =  φ y _{t −1}+ ɛ _t with ɛ _t  =     . Consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimated parameters are proved under the condition E  ln | φ  +√ α η _t |<0, which includes the cases with | φ |=1 or | φ |>1 as well as     . It is well known that all kinds of estimators of φ in these cases are not normal when ɛ _t are independent and identically distributed. Our result is novel and surprising. Two tests are proposed for testing stationarity of the model and their asymptotic distributions are shown to be a function of bivariate Brownian motions. Critical values of the tests are tabulated and some simulation results are reported. An application to the US 90-day treasury bill rate series is given.     

现代物流业的发展对经济结构优化的作用机理与实证研究——以山东省为例

目前山东省已进入经济结构转型的关键时期,发展现代物流业对于带动山东产业升级,促进经济结构转型具有重要作用。本文运用相关理论阐述了现代物流业优化三次产业的机理,利用山东省相关统计数据,运用产业乘数方法对山东省1990-2010年现代物流业优化经济结构的情况进行实证分析,进而提出了相关的结论和建议。     

电子支付工具发展与货币乘数时效性分析

电子支付工具的普及与发展改变了人们的生活,同时对传统金融理论带来了极大的挑战.文章在推导电子支付体系下货币乘数公式的基础上,选取中国电子支付工具的相关样本数据建立计量经济模型,对电子支付工具与货币乘数的相关性进行了统计检验.实证结果表明,电子支付工具扩大了货币乘数,且缩短了货币乘数实现的时滞.为此,央行通过控制基础货币从而控制流动性的货币政策时效性将会加强,对此应有充分的估计.     

关于经济学中乘数数值计算问题的研究

研究了乘数计算的理论前提条件、计算乘数数值的联立方程模型的识别、乘数计算选择变量的依据以及正确理解乘数数值的含义 ,指出了必须正确使用乘数数值来制定和分析国家政策。     

ON OPTIMIZING MULTI-LEVEL DESIGNS: POWER UNDER BUDGET CONSTRAINTS

This paper derives a procedure for efficiently allocating the number of units in multi‐level designs given prespecified power levels. The derivation of the procedure is based on a constrained optimization problem that maximizes a general form of a ratio of expected mean squares subject to a budget constraint. The procedure makes use of variance component estimates to optimize designs during the budget formulating stages. The method provides more general closed form solutions than other currently available formulae. As such, the proposed procedure allows for the determination of the optimal numbers of units for studies that involve more complex designs. A method is also described for optimizing designs when variance component estimates are not available. Case studies are provided to demonstrate the method.     

Wallis乘积的两个应用

本文给出了Wallis乘积的两个应用,一个是对积分∫π/2 0sinnxdx上下界进行估计;另一个是对Pn=(1 1/1)(1 1/3)...(1 1/2n-1)估计值的改进,估计精度达到(√π)/4 1(/√n) (√π)/8 1/n3/2 o(1/n3/2).