An LM-type test for idiosyncratic unit roots in the exact factor model with integrated factors

We consider an exact factor model with integrated factors and propose an LM-type test for unit roots in the idiosyncratic component. We show that, for a fixed number of panel individuals (N) and when the number of time points (T) tends to infinity, the limiting distribution of the LM-type statistic is a weighted sum of independent Chi-square variables with one degree of freedom, and when T tends to infinity followed by N tending to infinity, the limiting distribution is standard normal. The results should contribute to the challenging task of deriving likelihood-based unit-root tests in dynamic factor models.     

Micro-simulation of households: a new tool to assess the impact on society of food safety policies

Public concerns about the risk from food hazards have spread in recent years, boosted by a number of well-publicized food scares. As a result, food safety issues are high on the policy agenda in Europe and elsewhere, and a range of policies have been developed to deal with them. The paper illustrates and makes a case for the use of micro-simulation models as support for better economic assessment of food policies. When households deal with food safety issues they can show heterogeneous behaviors, and micro-simulation can provide a useful tool to take into account this heterogeneity. However, to the author's knowledge, no attempt to use micro-simulation in the analysis of food safety policies has taken place so far. After an illustration of the way economists evaluate food safety policies, micro-simulation methodologies are introduced, stressing their potentiality for the assessment of food safety policies.     

国家利益拓展的倍增器——学习胡锦涛同志关于军事科技创新的最新论述

军事科技创新是国家利益拓展的重要技术基础，具有倍增器的作用。适应世界军事发展趋势的需要和我国国家利益发展的新要求，我们必须注重发挥军事科技创新在国家军事实力、国家科技实力、国家经济实力、国家战略能力等领域的倍增作用。其关键途径在于贯彻胡锦涛主席提出的构建军民兼容的国防科技创新体制和机制。     

边际消费倾向对财政政策效果的影响

边际消费倾向是影响财政政策效果大小的因素之一 ,分析边际消费倾向的提高究竟在什么情况下使财政政策的效果大或小 ,指出在利率不变、预期利润率提高和投资对利率不敏感的条件下 ,边际消费倾向的提高使财政政策的效果大 ,在利率提高、预期利润率降低和投资对利率的敏感度很大时 ,边际消费倾向的提高使财政政策的效果小。     

彩色电视机自动本振频率微调电路

首先通过AFT方框图介绍本振频率微调的信号流程 ,然后结合TA76 0 7AP内部的AFT电路分析自动本振频率微调的工作原理     

积极财政政策与制度约束——一种交易费用的解释

积极财政政策实施一段时间以来 ,效果还不是非常明显 ,其中一个原因就是存在着改革进程中制度结构变迁的非均衡 ,由于这种非均衡 ,经济系统内的交易费用呈现波动的态势 ,而本轮经济周期的谷地恰与交易费用的向上波动相逢 ,于是导致了以刺激需求为目的的积极财政政策的效应被部分抵消 ;同时传统文化习惯的相对稳定性也在一定程度上削弱了财政启动经济的作用。这提示我们 ,改革的各项措施的协调配合是非常重要的 ,而且改革的步伐也应该适当加快     

Equivalence of two tests in varying coefficient partially linear errors in variable model with missing responses

This paper considers two tests on varying coefficient partially linear errors-in-variables models (VCPLM-EV) with missing responses under the linear constraint. The restricted estimator for the parametric component is derived and proven to share asymptotically normal distribution. In order to test the linear constraint, two statistics based on the profile Lagrange multiplier method and the corrected residual sum of squares method respectively, are proposed. It is of interest to obtain that the magnitudes of the two statistics are equal exactly and follow the asymptotical chi-square distribution. This reveals a new type of Wilk’s phenomenon in VCPLM-EV models with missing response. Finally, some numerical examples are carried out to illustrate relevant performances.     

货币政策区域效应乘数模型及在中国的应用

文章建立了基于宏观经济学经典理论的区域货币乘数模型和区域货币政策乘数模型,从理论上推导得出了货币政策区域效应的影响因素,并结合中国现实分析了中国基础货币区域投放差异、区域货币乘数差异、区域货币政策乘数差异。分析结果表明,在区域货币乘数和区域货币政策乘数的双重差异下,统一的货币政策对中国东部发达地区经济的影响效果将显著大于中西部欠发达地区。这些结论对中国货币政策制定和宏观经济调控具有重要意义。     

ECM模型短期动态系数与协整模型长期均衡系数不一致性研究

研究了ECM模型中短期动态系数和协整模型中长期均衡系数之间的不一致性。根据协整理论,因变量的变化可以分解为基本面的变化和暂时性的噪声成分,短期动态系数由此产生。然而变量的差分减小了基本面的影响,同时提升了噪声对真实经济关系的扭曲。短期动态系数的推导过程进一步表明,噪声是造成短期动态系数小于长期均衡系数的原因。因变量变化越大,噪声的影响越小。国内外铜期货市场整合检验的实证结果与理论分析的预测相一致,实证结果同时显示,误差修正项的引入对短期动态系数的估计没有显著影响;当因变量变化巨大时,短期动态系数接近于长期均衡系数。     

Volterra乘子的存在性

本文给出Volterra乘子存在的必要条件,两个充分条件及相应的存在区域.