The role of macroeconomic policies in the global crisis

This paper argues that the lack of timely and decisive policy action to correct domestic and external imbalances contributed crucially to the build-up of financial excesses that led to the financial crisis and the Great Recession. We focus on 2002–2007 and perform a number of counterfactual simulations to investigate two central elements of the story, namely: (a) an over-expansionary US monetary policy and the absence of effective macro-prudential supervision, which permitted a prolonged expansion of debt-financed consumer spending and (b) the choice by China and other emerging countries to pursue an export-led growth strategy supported by pegging their currencies to the US dollar, in conjunction with sluggish domestic demand in major advanced economies characterized by low potential output growth. The results of the simulations lend support to the view that if substantial, globally coordinated demand rebalancing had been undertaken early on, the macroeconomic and financial imbalances would not have accumulated to the extent that they did and the financial turmoil might have had less drastic global consequences.     

中国道路的世界意义

为了从世界史的视角实事求是地诠释中国道路的全过程,运用历史还原法,用中国话语体系论证了中国道路依次经过的邦国联盟、封建制、郡县制、社会主义4个阶段。研究认为,中国道路是具有自身特点和规律的自然历史过程,在中国道路中没有奴隶制阶段和资本主义阶段;世界各国可以根据本国国情独立自主地选择自己的发展道路;中国“互利共赢、共同发展”的理念有助于世界各国的发展,中国能够成为世界人民值得信赖的朋友;中国强有力地抵制资本主义世界体系的打压,为全世界人民反抗不公正不平等的世界体系树立了榜样。     

相门出相——试论史浩对史弥远之影响

四明史氏为南宋历史上罕有的宰相世家,史浩、史弥远、史嵩之先后为相,尤其是史弥远,执掌朝政更长达26年,令史氏家族显赫一时。史弥远早年虽曾一度师从理学中人,但对理学思想的接受较为有限,他在政治上深受其父史浩影响,他参与政变、对外主和以及用人方式等方面,无不或直接或间接的在效仿乃父。     

Pair‐copula constructions for non‐Gaussian DAG models

We propose a new type of multivariate statistical model that permits non‐Gaussian distributions as well as the inclusion of conditional independence assumptions specified by a directed acyclic graph. These models feature a specific factorisation of the likelihood that is based on pair‐copula constructions and hence involves only univariate distributions and bivariate copulas, of which some may be conditional. We demonstrate maximum‐likelihood estimation of the parameters of such models and compare them to various competing models from the literature. A simulation study investigates the effects of model misspecification and highlights the need for non‐Gaussian conditional independence models. The proposed methods are finally applied to modeling financial return data. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 86–109; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Approximate jackknife empirical likelihood method for estimating equations

It is known that the profile empirical likelihood method based on estimating equations is computationally intensive when the number of nuisance parameters is large. Recently, Li, Peng, & Qi (2011) proposed a jackknife empirical likelihood method for constructing confidence regions for the parameters of interest by estimating the nuisance parameters separately. However, when the estimators for the nuisance parameters have no explicit formula, the computation of the jackknife empirical likelihood method is still intensive. In this paper, an approximate jackknife empirical likelihood method is proposed to reduce the computation in the jackknife empirical likelihood method when the nuisance parameters cannot be estimated explicitly. A simulation study confirms the advantage of the new method. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 110–123; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Restricted maximum likelihood estimation of joint mean‐covariance models

The class of joint mean‐covariance models uses the modified Cholesky decomposition of the within subject covariance matrix in order to arrive to an unconstrained, statistically meaningful reparameterisation. The new parameterisation of the covariance matrix has two sets of parameters that separately describe the variances and correlations. Thus, with the mean or regression parameters, these models have three sets of distinct parameters. In order to alleviate the problem of inefficient estimation and downward bias in the variance estimates, inherent in the maximum likelihood estimation procedure, the usual REML estimation procedure adjusts for the degrees of freedom lost due to the estimation of the mean parameters. Because of the parameterisation of the joint mean covariance models, it is possible to adapt the usual REML procedure in order to estimate the variance (correlation) parameters by taking into account the degrees of freedom lost by the estimation of both the mean and correlation (variance) parameters. To this end, here we propose adjustments to the estimation procedures based on the modified and adjusted profile likelihoods. The methods are illustrated by an application to a real data set and simulation studies. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 225–242; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

A generalized Fleming and Harrington's class of tests for interval‐censored data

The class $G^{\rho,\lambda }$ of weighted log‐rank tests proposed by Fleming & Harrington [Fleming & Harrington (1991) Counting Processes and Survival Analysis, Wiley, New York] has been widely used in survival analysis and is nowadays, unquestionably, the established method to compare, nonparametrically, k different survival functions based on right‐censored survival data. This paper extends the $G^{\rho,\lambda }$ class to interval‐censored data. First we introduce a new general class of rank based tests, then we show the analogy to the above proposal of Fleming & Harrington. The asymptotic behaviour of the proposed tests is derived using an observed Fisher information approach and a permutation approach. Aiming to make this family of tests interpretable and useful for practitioners, we explain how to interpret different choices of weights and we apply it to data from a cohort of intravenous drug users at risk for HIV infection. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 501–516; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Designing Logistic Information Platform to Fostering Development Trend in China Automobile Manufacturing Group

The logistics resource in China's automobile group can't be optimized and allocated because of the "information island" problem in the group's logistics information platform in the whole group. In addition, it is the development trend of China's automobile group LIN to build a logistics e - market in the range of the group.     

Crisis communication online: How medium,crisis type and emotions affected public reactions in the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster

Social media play in today's societies a fundamental role for the negotiation and dynamics of crises. However, classical crisis communication theories neglect the role of the medium and focus mainly on the interplay between crisis type and crisis communication strategy. Building on the recently developed “networked crisis communication model” we contrast effects of medium (Facebook vs. Twitter vs. online newspaper) and crisis type (intentional vs. victim) in an online experiment. Using the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster as crisis scenario, we show that medium effects are stronger than the effects of crisis type. Crisis communication via social media resulted in a higher reputation and less secondary crisis reactions such as boycotting the company than crisis communication in the newspaper. However, secondary crisis communication, e.g. talking about the crisis communication, was higher in the newspaper condition than in the social media conditions because people consider traditional media as more credible. We also found higher levels of anger in the intentional crisis condition than in the victim crisis condition. Anger in turn was related to reputation, secondary crisis communication and secondary crisis reaction. The results stress the need for more complex models of crisis communication.     

区域经济结构调整与高等教育互动发展探析——以广州市为例

广州高等教育的发展一方面促进了广州经济发展和结构调整,但另一方面,随着广州区域经济发展内涵的改变,其对地方高校的发展也提出了更深层次的要求.文章从分析人才结构性和供需规格的现状出发,认为市属高校与区域经济发展之间存在诸如学科设置与经济发展贴近度不强、人才供给轻型化等矛盾.针对于此,当前市属高校的发展要注重具有内涵的特色建设,学科的发展应贴近经济发展的要求,要为地方经济发展提供强大的人才保障和智力支持.