Central tendency bias in belief elicitation

We conduct an experiment in which subjects participate in a first-price auction against an automaton that bids randomly in a given range. The subjects first place a bid in the auction. They are then given an incentivized elicitation of their beliefs of the opponent’s bid. Despite having been told that the bid of the opponent is drawn from a uniform distribution, we find that a majority of subjects report beliefs that have a peak in the interior of the range. This result is robust across seven different experimental treatments. While not expected at the outset, these single-peaked beliefs have precedence in the experimental psychology judgments literature. Our results suggest that an elicitation of probability beliefs can result in responses that are more concentrated than the objectively known or induced truth. We provide indicative evidence that such individual belief reports can be rationalized by well-defined subjective beliefs that differ from the objective truth. Our findings offer an explanation for the conservatism and overprecision biases in Bayesian updating. Finally, our findings suggest that probabilistic forecasts of uncertain events might have less variance than the actual events.     

An omnibus two-sample test for ranked-set sampling data

We develop an omnibus two-sample test for ranked-set sampling (RSS) data. The test statistic is the conditional probability of seeing the observed sequence of ranks in the combined sample, given the observed sequences within the separate samples. We compare the test to existing tests under perfect rankings, finding that it can outperform existing tests in terms of power, particularly when the set size is large. The test does not maintain its level under imperfect rankings. However, one can create a permutation version of the test that is comparable in power to the basic test under perfect rankings and also maintains its level under imperfect rankings. Both tests extend naturally to judgment post-stratification, unbalanced RSS, and even RSS with multiple set sizes. Interestingly, the tests have no simple random sampling analog.     

How much is too much: Does the size of income support transfers affect labor supply?

Cash transfer programs pursue mainly protective objectives, but can also impact rural livelihoods by inducing investments in productive activities and changing household labor allocation. We adopt a continuous treatment approach to quantify how households’ labor supply responds to transfer size. We find a shift from paid labor to own farm labor and find that the transfer size is well within a level that would have disincentive effects on time spent on own farm activities. The switch from paid to own farm labor occurs at lower levels of transfers for labor-constrained households, and at higher levels for non-labor constrained households.     

Identifying Systemically Important Banks: A temporal approach for macroprudential policies

Contrary to the general belief, systemic risk does not only regard the risk posed by balance sheet relationships and interdependencies among institutions. It also features a temporal dimension related to the inappropriate responses of financial market participants to changes in risk over time. This paper proposes a method to simultaneously address the cross-sectional and the time dimension in which systemic risk materializes. The method is based on the TOPHITS algorithm. It provides three scores, namely borrowing, lending and time scores: the first two represent the systemic importance of the borrowing and the lending activity associated with each financial institution,while the third represents an empirical Early Warning Signal of the financial crisis. Our findings reveal that the identification of the time score as an indicator for an incoming market distress could be relevant to design macro prudential policies.     

Inflation projections for monetary policy decision making

Many central banks set inflation targets over the medium term and inflation projections are a key input for monetary policy decision making. In this paper, we present the procedures used by the Spanish Central Bank staff to project consumer price inflation. We also provide some illustrations of their policy uses, such as fan charts, deflation probabilities and the monitoring of inflation targets.     

关于Feigenbaum型泛函方程的C^1解

利用Schauder不动点定理、自同胚和紧凸子集的相关性质研究Feigenbaum型泛函方程的连续可微解的存在性和唯一性.     

《寻金者》中自然和空间意象的生态隐喻

西方现代文明语境下物质主义导致的内心空虚和对人类永恒精神家园的追寻,是法国生态作家勒克莱齐奥始终关注的主题。他在小说《寻金者》中通过“寻金”主题的双重隐喻,表达了作家一贯对西方现代文明和物质主义的批判;对自然元素和空间意象的诗意描绘,以及对异域土著文明生态价值的关注,赋予了作家笔下的想象空间以神话般的象征色彩和深刻的生态隐喻意义,表达了作家非西方中心主义的文明观和对人类真正宝藏——人与自然和谐家园的追求。     

基于DEA模型的中国航运上市公司经营绩效评价

航运业作为国民经济重要的基础性和服务性行业,是实现国际贸易的重要保障,在促进国民经济发展中具有不可替代的作用。运用DEA模型中的C2R模型对中国2007—2010年在上海和深圳交易所上市的12家航运公司进行技术有效性和规模收益分析,评价这些公司的经营绩效,从而为航运上市公司提高经营管理效率提供决策依据,也为投资者理性投资提供参考依据。     

基于C／S和B／S混合模式的多媒体电子阅览室管理系统设计

高职院校多媒体电子阅览室是用户获取信息和学习的重要场所,如何能进一步完善和发展它需要有效的管理系统和具有更高素质的管理队伍。从网络化、一体化、多元化的理念出发,采用三层C/S和B/S两种混合模式,在用户管理,资源管理,安全管理三个方面展开论述,为现代多媒体电子阅览室提出了方便实用、安全有效的管理系统设计方案,以供大家探讨。     

基于Delphi/Access的C/S系统设计

C/S系统采用Access作后台数据库,具有性能稳定、数据交换迅速、数据安全、维护方便等特点,可视化编程语言Delphi具有丰富的编程环境、友好的界面、高速的编译器、强大的数据库开发功能,文章介绍了基于Delphi/Access的C/S系统软、硬件设计方法和技术。