Threshold Estimation for Stochastic Processes with Small Noise

Consider a process satisfying a stochastic differential equation with unknown drift parameter, and suppose that discrete observations are given. It is known that a simple least squares estimator (LSE) can be consistent but numerically unstable in the sense of large standard deviations under finite samples when the noise process has jumps. We propose a filter to cut large shocks from data and construct the same LSE from data selected by the filter. The proposed estimator can be asymptotically equivalent to the usual LSE, whose asymptotic distribution strongly depends on the noise process. However, in numerical study, it looked asymptotically normal in an example where filter was chosen suitably, and the noise was a Lévy process. We will try to justify this phenomenon mathematically, under certain restricted assumptions.     

Some alternative bivariate Kumaraswamy models

In this article we discuss various strategies for constructing bivariate Kumaraswamy distributions. As alternatives to the Nadarajah et al. (2011) bivariate model, four different models are introduced utilizing a conditional specification approach, a conditional survival function approach, and an Arnold–Ng bivariate beta distribution construction approach. Distributional properties for such bivariate distributions are investigated. Parameter estimation strategies for the models are discussed, as are the consequences of fitting two of the models to a particular data set involving the proportion of foggy days at two different airports in Colombia.     

中国"十五"计划经济发展速度的引证

论证"十五"计划经济发展速度的前提是要正确分析和判断经济发展趋势、经济现象与经济规律的吻合程度,经济运行的工作质量和寻求解决问题的途径和办法。影响国内生产总值增长速度的因素有全社会固定资产投资总额、社会消费品零售总额、价格指数、进出口总额、实际利用外资、财政收入、居民储蓄和城镇居民人均可支配收入及农民人均纯收入八项。固定资产投资、消费品零售总额、进出口总额是经济增长可持续发展的关键因素,必须重视价格指数的正面影响,关注资本的投入量和资本的使用效率,关注财政投资对宏观调控能力的影响,增加城镇中低收入居民的可支配收入和增加农民收入是启动消费市场带动经济全面回升的重要步骤。     

Intention to emigrate in transition countries: the case of Albania

We analyse the profile of potential emigrants from Albania using data from the Central and Eastern Europe Eurobarometer in 1992. Respondents were asked to rate on a four-point scale the likelihood that they would go to live in Western Europe. Our results show that intention to emigrate is correlated positively with males, education and certain occupations, and negatively with age. There is little relation between emigration and income. Those who support the introduction of a free market in Albania are also more likely to emigrate than those who do not. Received: 24 August 1998/Accepted: 17 April 2000     

Ecosystem resilience, specialized adaptation and population decline: A modern Malthusian theory

The purpose of this article is to construct a theoretical framework characterizing the interactions among economic development, ecosystem equilibrium and possible population decline, and to discuss the population dynamics in the very long run. In our framework, economic activities bridge population and environment. On the one hand, human beings reform the environment through economic activities; on the other hand, economic activities decrease environmental resilience and increase the possibility of an environmental change in a discontinuous and irreversible pattern, as described in Arrow et al. (1995). Furthermore, a highly developed economy also causes over-specialization of human adaptation, which tends to exaggerate the impact of an environmental change on human population size. Received: 19 January 1999/Accepted: 3 July 1999     

A two phases queueing system with Bernoulli vacation schedule under multiple vacation policy

This paper deals with a single server Poisson arrival queue with two phases of heterogeneous service along with a Bernoulli schedule vacation model, where after two successive phases service the server either goes for a vacation with probability p (0≤p≤1) or may continue to serve the next unit, if any, with probability q(=1−p). Further the concept of multiple vacation policy is also introduced here. We obtained the queue size distributions at a departure epoch and at a random epoch, Laplace Stieltjes Transform of the waiting time distribution and busy period distribution along with some mean performance measures. Finally we discuss some statistical inference related issues.     

The cost of children: May the collective approach to household behavior help?

The collective approach to household consumption behavior tries to infer from variables supposed to affect the general bargaining position of household members information on the allocation of consumptions goods and tasks among them. This paper investigates the extension of previous work to the case where children may be considered as a public consumption good by the two adult members of a household. The main question being asked is whether it is possible to retrieve from the aggregate consumption behaviour of the household and the relative earnings of the parents information on the allocation of goods between them and children. This alternative approach to the estimation of the ‘cost of children’ is contrasted with the conventional approach based on a ‘unitary’ representation of and demographic separability assumptions on household consumption behaviour. Received: 29 August 1997/Accepted: 26 November 1998     

Mr.J.F.McLennan's Study of Polyandry

John F.McLennan is well known for introducing the terms of “exogamy” and “en-dogamy” in Primitive Marriage:An Inquiry into the Origins of the Form of Capture in Marriage Ceremo-nies(1865) .In this book...