On hysteretic vector autoregressive model with applications

This paper proposes a new hysteretic vector autoregressive (HVAR) model in which the regime switching may be delayed when the hysteresis variable lies in a hysteresis zone. We integrate an adapted multivariate Student-t distribution from amending the scale mixtures of normal distributions. This HVAR model allows for a higher degree of flexibility in the degrees of freedom for each time series. We use the proposed model to test for a causal relationship between any two target time series. Using posterior odds ratios, we overcome the limitations of the classical approach to multiple testing. Both simulated and real examples herein help illustrate the suggested methods. We apply the proposed HVAR model to investigate the causal relationship between the quarterly growth rates of gross domestic product of United Kingdom and United States. Moreover, we check the pairwise lagged dependence of daily PM2.5 levels in three districts of Taipei.     

A new estimator of Kullback–Leibler information and its application in goodness of fit tests*

We propose here a general statistic for the goodness of fit test of statistical distributions. The proposed statistic is constructed based on an estimate of Kullback–Leibler information. The proposed test is consistent and the limiting distribution of the test statistic is derived. Then, the established results are used to introduce goodness of fit tests for the normal, exponential, Laplace and Weibull distributions. A simulation study is carried out for examining the power of the proposed test and to compare it with those of some existing procedures. Finally, some illustrative examples are presented and analysed, and concluding comments are made.     

Parametrizing the Kepler exoplanet period-radius distribution with the bivariate normal inverse Gaussian distribution

This paper presents a simple and robust method for obtaining a comprehensive understanding of the joint period and radius distribution in Kepler exoplanets. The proposed method is based on particle swarm optimization and bivariate Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution. Furthermore, in the construction of the probability density function, this study selects planet-host stars with the GK-type. The injecting approach is also employed to solve the survey completeness of sample. The resulting occurrence rate of Earth analogs is 0.025 with a 95% bootstrap confidence interval between 0.023 and 0.032.     

我国供给侧结构性改革研究

推进供给侧结构性改革是我国为适应经济发展新阶段所提出的创新举措,一方面是转变经济发展方式,跨越"中等收入陷阱"的主动选择,另一方面是全面深化改革,全面建成小康社会的必然要求。"十三五"时期是经济结构调整的关键时期,当前中国经济面临的主要矛盾由需求侧转向供给侧,面临体制性、结构性矛盾,必须减少无效供给,增加有效供给,增强经济发展动力,为经济持续健康发展创造条件。     

新常态视角下高校社会服务功能拓展研究

高校社会服务功能拓展是经济"新常态"背景下的应有之义和必然选择。强化高校社会服务的职能观,以社会需求为导向培养应用型人才,面向社会领域主动开展科学研究,构建高校科学研究转化机制,建立高校社会服务的激励与评价机制,是高校社会服务主动适应和服务"新常态"的重要举措。     

Household gambling expenditures and the Irish recession

This article examines the determinants of household gambling expenditures in Ireland and the effects of the recession on these expenditures using a large micro data-set, the Irish Household Budget Survey (HBS). Two gambling expenditures are examined, bookmaker tote betting and spending on the national lottery. Households with an older and a less educated head of household participate in and spend more on both forms of gambling while the presence of children in the households tends to reduce participation and spending in gambling. There is also evidence to suggest that households with an unemployed head of household have a higher likelihood of participation in gambling. The recession has affected the two forms of gambling in different ways. Lottery expenditures appear resilient to the effects of the recession. This is demonstrated in the estimated expenditure elasticities in particular. Bookmaker/tote expenditures have changed from a necessity to a luxury good, while lottery expenditures have increased in their necessity status. This can be explained by the fact that playing the lottery requires less time, knowledge and risk and has potentially greater benefits attached to it in comparison to bookmaker/tote betting. During a recession these factors become much more prevalent.     

“智慧教育+”环境下高校教育教学方法的探索与实践——以工科基础课教育教学为例

在“智慧教育+”的教育教学环境下,教学仍然存在着传统固有的缺陷,使得学生的学习达不到预期效果。文章以学生发展为中心,注重课程建设的创新与实践,通过构建研究型教学新方法,打造立体化的教学资源与高阶性的教学内容,注重多元化教学手段、数字化教学应用等方面的教育教学探索,从教育教学的“理论、实践、资源”三个维度持续提升学习效果。研究通过构建“研学实践”育人的教学方法,丰富课程内涵,实现了价值引领和能力培养的融合,探索出了符合地方高校实际需求的一种新型的教育教学方法。     

浅议普及图书检索知识的方法和途径

通过分析读者检索面临的问题及图书馆检索教育的不足,论述了检索知识普及的重要性与必要性,提出了对读者进行普及检索教育的方法与途径。     

解读治理腐败的手段

治理手段是否合理、妥当,是决定治理腐败成功与否的重要因素。治理腐败手段的本质特征,在于它充分体现了治理腐败活动的主体性和客观性、合目的性和规律性的统一。领导力量、法规与制度以及组织机构等,是构成治理腐败综合手段的三种基本手段。不同性质的基本手段之间的组合,会形成消极的、超常规的、积极的等三种不同类型的治理手段。要有效地治理腐败,必须采取积极的综合治理手段。     

新课改背景下数学师范生专业技能培养的探究

介绍新课改对数学教师的新要求,设想数学师范生专业技能的结构,并对数学师范生专业技能的培养原则及其措施进行了探究.