用科学发展观指导我国对外经贸发展的战略思考

科学发展观和"五个统筹"的发展战略思想,是中共中央<关于完善社会主义市场经济体制若干问题的决定>中首次提出来的一个创新的理论观点."用科学发展观指导我国对外经贸发展战略的思考"这个命题,从三个侧面阐述统筹国内发展和对外开放是落实科学发展观的重要内容;统筹国内发展与对外开放的重大战略意义;统筹国内发展与对外开放是掌握对外开放主动权,全面提高对外开放水平的一项重大战略任务.为此,必须正确处理几个重要的经济关系:1)国内需求与国外需求的关系;2)用好内资与有效利用外资的关系;3)开发利用国内资源和国外资源的关系;4)"引进来"与"走出去"的关系;5)扩大对外开放与维护国家经济安全的关系.     

劳动力选择性转移对农业生产的影响——基于甘肃省1990～2008年时间序列数据的实证分析

就农村劳动力还处于人力资本初始积累的特定阶段而言,劳动力的选择性转移对农业生产的影响是极为有限的。然而随着选择性转移的持续推进,随着现代农业技术对人力资本敏感程度的不断提高,劳动力选择性转移对农业生产的制约作用将进一步凸显。这一假说可以为基于甘肃1990～2008年时间序列数据的实证分析所支持。     

高校基建、修缮工程监督的难点与对策

文章针对高校基建、修缮工程监督管理的现状,就高校基建、修缮工程监督管理的难点进行了分析,并提出了解决的对策,以最大限度地提高资金的使用效益。     

动态维修成本下的非周期预防性维修决策模型

为了制定更符合生产实际的设备预防性维修计划,将役龄回退因子和故障率递增因子相结合,根据设备的故障率及其可靠性来确定设备的维修间隔期,分析设备生命周期内的动态维修成本。维修成本包括非预期故障小修费用、预防性维修费用、设备停机造成的费用、设备预防性更换的费用,以这些成本最小化为目标,以设备有效度及设备可靠度为约束条件,建立非周期预防性维修决策模型并给出求解步骤,据此得到最优的预防性维修计划。     

Specificity of Performance Feedback in a Professional Service Delivery Setting

Although feedback is one of the most widely used intervention strategies, data on the specificity of effects has been sparse. The current study examined the effects of individualized public feedback on maintenance of client charts by therapists in a clinic setting. Four types of charting errors were tracked throughout the study. In Phase 1, feedback on two types of charting errors was provided and withdrawn in an ABA fashion. Phase II was a systematic replication of Phase I, using a second group of therapists, in which feedback was provided on the other two types of charting errors in an AB fashion. Results showed that feedback affected only those errors on which it was provided, thus supporting a specificity view of feedback effects. It is suggested that target behaviors be carefully selected and that generalization of feedback effects be assessed and not assumed.     

Tourist number prediction of historic buildings by singular spectrum analysis

A wooden historic building located in Tibet, China, experienced structural damage when subjected to tourists visit. This kind of ancient building attends to too many visitors every day because heritage sites never fail to attract tourists. There should be a balance between accepting the visitors and the protection of historic buildings considering the importance of the cultural relics. In this paper, the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is used for forecasting the number of tourist for the building management to exercise maintenance measures to the structure. The analyzed results can be used to control the tourist flow to avoid excessive pedestrian loading on the structure. The relationship between the measured acceleration from the structure and the tourist number is firstly studied. The root-mean-square (RMS) value of the measured acceleration in the passage route of the tourist is selected for forecasting future tourist number. The forecasting results from different methods are compared. The SSA is found slightly outperforms the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), the X-11-ARIMA model and the cubic spline extrapolation in terms of the RMS error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error for long-term prediction, whereas the opposite is observed for short-term forecasting.     

北极环境问题研究综述

在全球气候变化中,北极环境变化最为明显,并开始影响全球生态系统。北极环境研究及维护日益引起国内外学术界的关注,有价值的研究成果大量涌现并呈现出三大特点:在研究角度上,多集中于海洋环境法制建设;在研究内容上,面上研究较多纵深挖掘甚少;研究针对性不强,强调理论而缺少可行性考虑;从研究方法上看,重视定性研究缺乏定量研究。未来的研究仍具有较大拓展空间,应在北极环境技术、数据交流、考察等多方面进行深入的研究并结合我国具体实际进行针对性的政策探究。采用综合定性与定量的研究方法。     

The alert-delay competing risks model for maintenance analysis

The paper considers the modelling of the dependency between corrective maintenance and condition-based preventive maintenance of complex repairable systems. A new model of dependent competing risks is proposed, called the alert-delay (AD) model. This model has different properties from that of the delay-time, repair-alert and proportional warning constant inspection models and happens to fit some data sets which could not be fitted by the previous models. The main features of the AD model are derived: probabilistic properties and statistical analysis. Simulation results and an application to real data are presented.     

铁路养护便携式智能综合测量仪的实现

采用低功耗89C55型CPU与少量外围芯片、宽温型背光点阵式液晶显示器、高精度传感器结构智能铁道测试仪。其操作方式由液晶汉字提示，测量数据由仪器自动检测纪录，故障自动提示并声音报警。作为铁轨直线段和小曲率半径线段的综合测量仪器，可测量两条轨道的内侧宽度、两条轨道的高度差和测量记录点的定点距离。经过大量现场测量试验，其全部性能基本达到设计指标要求。     

论高校网络运维体系建设

在高校网络建设初期，网络运维体系建设容易被忽略。随着各种网络信息系统的发展，网络运维体系的重要性也逐步在校园网络管理的实践中体现出来，如何建立一套适合高校网络管理的运维体系，已经成为各个高校不断探索研究的目标。