Spatial variation in risk of disease: a nonparametric binary regression approach

A common problem in environmental epidemiology is the estimation and mapping of spatial variation in disease risk. In this paper we analyse data from the Walsall District Health Authority, UK, concerning the spatial distributions of cancer cases compared with controls sampled from the population register. We formulate the risk estimation problem as a nonparametric binary regression problem and consider two different methods of estimation. The first uses a standard kernel method with a cross-validation criterion for choosing the associated bandwidth parameter. The second uses the framework of the generalized additive model (GAM) which has the advantage that it can allow for additional explanatory variables, but is computationally more demanding. For the Walsall data, we obtain similar results using either the kernel method with controls stratified by age and sex to match the age–sex distribution of the cases or the GAM method with random controls but incorporating age and sex as additional explanatory variables. For cancers of the lung or stomach, the analysis shows highly statistically significant spatial variation in risk. For the less common cancers of the pancreas, the spatial variation in risk is not statistically significant.     

Managing Uncertainty through Profit Sharing Contracts from Medieval Italy to Silicon Valley

Organizational innovation is essential to economic development. But, the way successful societies have organized new ventures has been remarkably similar in both past and present. The commenda organizations of medieval Italy shared many characteristics with modern startups that are financed by venture capital. Profit share contracts; limited liability and periodic reevaluations are cases in point. Agency contracts in both types of ventures are designed to absorb the high uncertainty inherent to these enterprises through risk sharing. Uncertainty prohibits a unique ex ante ranking order of investment projects and prompts investors to look for hidden human capital. Equity finance is better equipped to even out unexpected losses and gains that are inherent to uncertainty than debt finance.     

金融工程中资产收益的连续时间模型评述

总结了在过去30年中金融资产收益连续时间模型的发展及主要成果,讨论了迄今连续时间模型参数估计的主要方法,其中特别讨论了MCMC方法;最后指出了现在和未来该领域研究所面临的主要课题。     

基于MCMC稳态模拟的贝叶斯经验费率厘定信用模型

B黨lmann-Straub model is one of the most famous applications of the Bayesian method for the experience rate making.However,by the traditional B黨lmann-Straub model one cannot get the unbiased posterior estimation of the parameters when there is not sufficient prior information for the structural parameters;What's more,the difficult of computing high dimension numeration limits the application of Bayesian method.This paper introduces the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulaton method based on the Gibbs sampling after analyzing the structure of the B黨lmann-Straub model and sets up the Bayesian credibility model for estimating the predictive risk premium.Also by using the results of the numeration analysis,this paper proves that from this model one can get the posterior distributions of the parameters dynamically and the posterior estimation of the censoring parameters in the situation that exists unknown parameters,as well as improve the precision of the numeration,which can be helpful to find the heterogeneity of the premium.     

现代信用风险度量模型的实证比较与适用性分析

本文通过实证比较分析发现,现代信用风险度量模型对银行贷款的违约率、贷款损失和损失率的预测结果的差异性较大;但信用监测模型和信用风险附加法所预测的经济资本配置比例不仅符合巴塞尔协议对银行贷款经济资本的要求,也略大于实际应该配置的比例,实证表明了它们对度量我国商业银行贷款组合的信用风险具有较好的适用性.此外,本文也充分验证了借款人信用等级的不同,银行贷款经济资本配置的比例会有显著性的差异.     

Toward Improved Communication about Wildland Fire: Mental Models Research to Identify Information Needs for Natural Resource Management

The management of natural- and human-induced wildland fires is an intricate process that must balance two considerations: that of fire as a necessary natural disturbance and that of the risks that fire poses. Reconciling tradeoffs between these risks and benefits is contingent upon informed, directed, and two-way communication between wildland fire managers and stakeholders. In an effort to aid with the design of such a communication effort, this study used mental models research to determine the unique wildland fire information and decision-making needs of stakeholders living at the wildland-urban interface of a fire-prone area. While the analysis revealed many similarities in how stakeholders conceptualized the risks and benefits of wildland fire, many misconceptions and important gaps in understanding on the part of both expert and nonexpert respondents were identified.     

新常态下供销社经营模式的转型与创新研究

随着我国新型四化的深入推进,农村经济建设迈入了新阶段。在新常态下,供销社的迫切任务是加快转型升级,切实提高为农服务能力。因而这就要求我们既要把握好传统业务,又要善用改革和创新的思维开拓新型业务,用业务经营发展促使供销社转型升级。面对我国经济发展新常态,供销社过去长期积累起来的服务“三农”的宝贵经验遇到了很大的挑战,在经营过程中所暴露出的经营方式、手段等方面都存在着很多弊端,进而阻碍了供销社的生存与发展。供销社要想走为农服务的道路,转型与创新势在必行。基于经济发展新常态,分析供销社在发展中存在的突出问题;研究供销社进行转型与创新的必要性;最后归纳总结供销社经营模式的创新途径。     

西方文论研究与翻译视野

近期,国内的西方文论研究开始出现反思趋势,西方文论本身也成为反思对象之一。反思过程中出现了对西方文论的一些误读,原因之一在于部分研究者可能忽略了自身研究奠基于译文之上的事实,将译文直接等同于原文,因而也可以说是翻译视野的缺失。在西方文论研究中引入翻译视野,即意味着基于译本进行的文论研究须与译本拉开一定的距离。翻译视野又包括转换意识、语境意识、差异意识三重内涵。转换意识即意识到译文是语言转换的结果,同时意识到由转换所导致的信息不对称性;语境意识是指意识到西方文论扎根的特定时空的文化形态及理论家的认知形态;差异意识是指对原作与译作所处时空差异的意识。翻译视野促使我们主动去了解西方文论在原语语境中的起源及发展,辩证地探讨其在译语语境中的适用性,有助于我们在西方文论译介热持续上升的今天,真正深入地理解与反思西方文论的内涵,更好地吸取其精华,批判其糟粕,推动中国文学与文化研究的发展,建构中国自己的理论体系。     

新贫困视域下乡村转型的困厄与重构路径

中国社会转型的重要背景之一是全球消费社会的到来。 这使得新穷人现象日渐凸显,并成为影响甚至主导整个社会转型的核心线索。 作为新穷人的典型表现,乡村新贫困既包括在城乡二元结构下,村民难以获得以城市生活方式为参照的社会公认生活水准而引发的结构性贫困,也包括由消费欲望激发的社会心理性贫困。 由此,乡村消费转型表现为如下困境:私人消费中,个体消费认同在地和脱嵌的困境以及家庭消费规范物质化和人伦的两难;集体消费中,消费品“上移冶和“下乡冶的悖论。 为应对这些困境,必须从消费角度,破解“新穷困冶的结构性和文化困境,实行新型城镇化和新农村建设并举。     

An algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation in incomplete block variance component models

In the recovery of interblock information to improve the treatment differences estimates in incomplete block designs, the parameter p is usually unknown. Many authors have worked on the problem of estimating it and of studying its properties together with the properties of the treatment differences estimates. In this paper a numerically efficient algorithm is developed which yields the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of all the parameters in the mixed incomplete block design model (treatment effects, ρ and variance)