社会转型与人际关系结构的变化--由情感型人际关系结构向理性型人际关系结构的转化

人们结成一定的人际关系结构是由人的需要决定的 ,而人的需要又可以简单地分为情感需要和理性需要 ,与此相应 ,人际关系结构可以分为情感型人际关系和理性型人际关系。在中国长期的传统社会里 ,由于受传统社会结构的影响 ,人际关系结构明显表现为以情感为核心 ,重情不重理是传统中国人行为的普遍逻辑。但是 ,当前我国正处于社会转型时期 ,社会结构正发生着急剧的变化 ,人际交往中理性成分日益增加 ,人际关系结构表现出由情感型人际关系结构向理性型人际关系结构变化的趋势 ,我们必须对此有着清醒的认识。     

潜在顾客与现实顾客的比较分析

市场是某种货物或服务的所有现实购买和潜在购买，因此，市场竞争的实质是对潜在顾客与现实顾客的争夺。将潜在顾客与现实顾客作以比较分析，具有十分重要的意义；而如何反潜在顾客转化为现实顾客，是现代企业进一步把市场做大的核心问题。本指出了潜在顾客与现实顾客对于现代企业生存与发展的重要影响，分析了导致潜在顾客产生与存在的原因，重点讨论了把潜在顾客转化为现实顾客的策略与关键环节，以期对处于激烈的市场竞争旋涡之中的企业能有所裨益。     

一类二阶变系数微分方程的解

通过变量变换 ,将变系数线性常微分方程化为常系数线性常微分方程 ,再利用常数变易法给出了一类二阶变系数非齐线性微分方程的通解。     

An individual measure of relative survival

Summary.  Relative survival techniques are used to compare survival experience in a study cohort with that expected if background population rates apply. The techniques are especially useful when cause-specific death information is not accurate or not available as they provide a measure of excess mortality in a group of patients with a certain disease. Whereas these methods are based on group comparisons, we present here a transformation approach which instead gives for each individual an outcome measure relative to the appropriate background population. The new outcome measure is easily interpreted and can be analysed by using standard survival analysis techniques. It provides additional information on relative survival and gives new options in regression analysis. For example, one can estimate the proportion of patients who survived longer than a given percentile of the respective general population or compare survival experience of individuals while accounting for the population differences. The regression models for the new outcome measure are different from existing models, thus providing new possibilities in analysing relative survival data. One distinctive feature of our approach is that we adjust for expected survival before modelling. The paper is motivated by a study into the survival of patients after acute myocardial infarction.     

On Block Updating in Markov Random Field Models for Disease Mapping

Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) models are commonly used to model spatial correlation in disease mapping applications. For Bayesian inference by MCMC, so far mainly single-site updating algorithms have been considered. However, convergence and mixing properties of such algorithms can be extremely poor due to strong dependencies of parameters in the posterior distribution. In this paper, we propose various block sampling algorithms in order to improve the MCMC performance. The methodology is rather general, allows for non-standard full conditionals, and can be applied in a modular fashion in a large number of different scenarios. For illustration we consider three different applications: two formulations for spatial modelling of a single disease (with and without additional unstructured parameters respectively), and one formulation for the joint analysis of two diseases. The results indicate that the largest benefits are obtained if parameters and the corresponding hyperparameter are updated jointly in one large block. Implementation of such block algorithms is relatively easy using methods for fast sampling of Gaussian Markov random fields ( Rue, 2001 ). By comparison, Monte Carlo estimates based on single-site updating can be rather misleading, even for very long runs. Our results may have wider relevance for efficient MCMC simulation in hierarchical models with Markov random field components.     

Nonparametric smoothing in the analysis of air pollution and respiratory illness

While most of epidemiology is observational, rather than experimental, the culture of epidemiology is still derived from agricultural experiments, rather than other observational fields, such as astronomy or economics. The mismatch is made greater as focus has turned to continue risk factors, multifactorial outcomes, and outcomes with large variation unexplainable by available risk factors. The analysis of such data is often viewed as hypothesis testing with statistical control replacing randomization. However, such approaches often test restricted forms of the hypothesis being investigated, such as the hypothesis of a linear association, when there is no prior empirical or theoretical reason to believe that if an association exists, it is linear. In combination with the large nonstochastic sources of error in such observational studies, this suggests the more flexible alternative of exploring the association. Conclusions on the possible causal nature of any discovered association will rest on the coherence and consistency of multiple studies. Nonparametric smoothing in general, and generalized additive models in particular, represent an attractive approach to such problems. This is illustrated using data examining the relationship between particulate air pollution and daily mortality in Birmingham, Alabama; between particulate air pollution, ozone, and SO₂ and daily hospital admissions for respiratory illness in Philadelphia; and between ozone and particulate air pollution and coughing episodes in children in six eastern U.S. cities. The results indicate that airborne particles and ozone are associated with adverse health outcomes at very low concentrations, and that there are likely no thresholds for these relationships.     

社区建设中的政府职能转变

中国城市社区建设是在政府主导和推动下进行的 ,政府培育社区与转变自身职能同步进行构成这种建设的显著特征。本文结合西安市新城社区建设的实际情况 ,分析了政府在社区建设中的主导作用及其依据 ;提出了目前政府转变职能及推进社区建设方面存在的问题 ,给出相应的解决建议 ;对政府与社区职责的划分及社区的行政化问题作了简要探讨     

由社会主体到自然主体——论宋代文人投身自然的几种表现形式

宋代文人投身自然 ,实质上是一种由社会主体向自然主体的角色转换 ,这种角色转换表现为 4个层面 :在行为上诗酒山林、随遇皆乐 ;在心理上“安于冲旷、不与众驱”;在思想上“无愧于中、无责于外”;在感情上“不以物喜、不以己悲”。这四个层面归结到一点 ,则是抒写山水 ,营造“心灵屋宇”。文人们在这些“心灵屋宇”中流泄的是真挚的情感 ,人生的顿悟和孤芳自赏的高洁品格     

浅谈函数与方程

本文辩证地讨论了函数与方程二者之间的联系与区别；函数思想与方程思想的相互渗透与转化。从而给我们提供了用方程思想解函数问题和用函数思想解方程问题的方便。     

试析19世纪末20世纪初德国外交政策转变的经济动因

19世纪末20世纪初,统一后的德国无论从经济发展还是社会变化都已发展为一个现代意义上的工业化国家,作为上层建筑的基础,它也必然会促使德国外交政策的转变。