Particle methods for maximum likelihood estimation in latent variable models

Standard methods for maximum likelihood parameter estimation in latent variable models rely on the Expectation-Maximization algorithm and its Monte Carlo variants. Our approach is different and motivated by similar considerations to simulated annealing; that is we build a sequence of artificial distributions whose support concentrates itself on the set of maximum likelihood estimates. We sample from these distributions using a sequential Monte Carlo approach. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance for several applications of the proposed approach.     

监护概念与性质辨析

监护制度是一项古老的法律制度,具有十分旺盛的生命力。我国的监护制度采广义监护理念,它具体包括了父母对未成年子女的监护、父母以外的人对未成年子女的监护和对成年精神病人的监护人三种类型。从性质上看,监护是法律赋予特定主体享有监护权利和承担监护义务的一种特殊职责,它兼具私法和公法双重色彩。实行监护职权（权利）与责任（义务）的统一与一致,有利于维护被监护人的利益,有助于监护制度作用的充分发挥。     

企业经营绩效的数据包络模型及评价方法研究

企业经营的本质在于维护股东权益,创造企业最高价值。企业价值高低则是根据企业长期经营绩效而定。而企业提升经营绩效与企业价值的关键在于企业经营者能够根据外部环境变动来重新整合分配企业内部资源。因此以效率观点为切入点,引入数据包络分析(DEA)评价方法对企业经营绩效进行综合评价,提出了基于DEA的绩效评价内容,分析了其评价框架与步骤,为企业绩效评估问题提供了一条新的思路。     

我国香蕉产业组织模式绩效的实证分析——基于多变量随机系数累加多层统计模型

目前，组织模式绩效的研究已成了热点问题。然而多数的研究不是应用产业经济学的市场绩效理论就是对不同组织模式的某种均值的比较。对适合组织模式绩效研究的多层统计模型在香蕉产业组织模式绩效研究上的应用却未见报道。本文就是要把适合香蕉产业组织模式绩效研究的随机系数累加多层统计模型应用到我国香蕉产业组织模式绩效的实证分析。     

Does the European Union (EU) need a propaganda watchdog like the US Institute of Propaganda Analysis to strengthen its democratic civil society and free markets?

This article¹ addresses a paradox in the public communications of liberal democracies and suggests an easement of the social tensions created by it. Communication by public relations (PR) is an unavoidable consequence of such democracies, yet PR produces communicative inequalities, which offend the egalitarian and libertarian ethos of their civil societies and freely accessed markets. PR in this way renders itself into weak propaganda: historically and currently more available to principals rather than to subalterns. This is a conclusion most PR academics and practitioners reject. The former also distance themselves from persuasion and in their attachment to communicative symmetry they have ironically weakened the role of ethics in PR production. We seek to restore propaganda, persuasion and ethics to the centre of PR thinking. Our restoration begins with the establishment of propaganda detectors and regulators in the EU. We call them institutes for propaganda analysis after the example of the American Institute for Propaganda Analysis 1937–1942. These whistleblowers will measure the flows of PR propaganda amongst organisations and groups in the political economy and civil society; and counter-intuitively, will provide PR resource subsidies for those wanting to be heard in public via a PR ‘voice’ but who lack the capacity to produce it. In this way, a minimal communicative equality of PR production capacity will be created and European citizens and consumers given a more level playing field of information sources. PR propaganda is constitutive of liberal democracy, their civil societies and of capitalist markets but it needs reformation in the interests of equality of communication resources. This is a worthy and legitimate public policy goal to work towards.     

Bayesian Inference in Cointegrated I (2) Systems: A Generalization of the Triangular Model

This paper generalizes the cointegrating model of Phillips (1991) to allow for I (0), I (1) and I (2) processes. The model has a simple form that permits a wider range of I (2) processes than are usually considered, including a more flexible form of polynomial cointegration. Further, the specification relaxes restrictions identified by Phillips (1991) on the I (1) and I (2) cointegrating vectors and restrictions on how the stochastic trends enter the system. To date there has been little work on Bayesian I (2) analysis and so this paper attempts to address this gap in the literature. A method of Bayesian inference in potentially I (2) processes is presented with application to Australian money demand using a Jeffreys prior and a shrinkage prior.     

我国交通运输动员潜力评价

建立我国交通运输动员潜力区域竞争力的评价原则，选取12个交通运输动员潜力指标，采用因子分析和层次聚类分析的方法，评价我国交通运输动员潜力的区域竞争力。把我国31个省市的交通运输动员潜力的区域竞争力分为五类，其中第一类为城市公共交通业和航空运输业职工人数动员潜力较大型，第二类为铁路运输动员潜力较大型，第三类为水运和管道运输业职工人数动员潜力较大型，第四类为公路和水运客运动员潜力较大型，第五类为整体交通运输动员潜力较大型。最后对因子分析和层次聚类分析的结果进行评价并得出结论。     

On the analysis of long-term experiments

Summary.  Long-term experiments are commonly used tools in agronomy, soil science and other disciplines for comparing the effects of different treatment regimes over an extended length of time. Periodic measurements, typically annual, are taken on experimental units and are often analysed by using customary tools and models for repeated measures. These models contain nothing that accounts for the random environmental variations that typically affect all experimental units simultaneously and can alter treatment effects. This added variability can dominate that from all other sources and can adversely influence the results of a statistical analysis and interfere with its interpretation. The effect that this has on the standard repeated measures analysis is quantified by using an alternative model that allows for random variations over time. This model, however, is not useful for analysis because the random effects are confounded with fixed effects that are already in the repeated measures model. Possible solutions are reviewed and recommendations are made for improving statistical analysis and interpretation in the presence of these extra random variations.     

外币折算损益对会计报表影响分析

本文通过对外币折算损益产生的原因及其分类的分析，采用国际上和我国现行会计核算制度程序对外币折算损益处理的不同特点，分类型分析了外币折算损益对会计报表产生的影响     

论中国语境中的非政府公共组织

非政府公共组织在我国兴起的背景与西方大不相同,中国非政府公共组织产生的前提是计划经济管理体制和高度集权的政治管理体制的失灵,而不是西方意义的市场失灵和政府失灵的产物;是国家和社会关系重构的过程,而不是两者之间领域划分的过程。基于理性经济人假设的公共选择理论不能解释我国非政府公共组织产生的动力问题,目前我们需要从制度建设、政府的合作模式构建、公共文化培育等方面促进非政府公共组织的发展。