A hazard model of the probability of medical school drop-out in the UK

Summary.  From individual level longitudinal data for two entire cohorts of medical students in UK universities, we use multilevel models to analyse the probability that an individual student will drop out of medical school. We find that academic preparedness—both in terms of previous subjects studied and levels of attainment therein—is the major influence on withdrawal by medical students. Additionally, males and more mature students are more likely to withdraw than females or younger students respectively. We find evidence that the factors influencing the decision to transfer course differ from those affecting the decision to drop out for other reasons.     

Using statistical techniques to detect fraud: a test case

In an experiment to test the effectiveness of statistical measures in detecting fraud, three physicians fabricated scores on the Montgomery–Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) for a number of subjects in three sites. The fabricated data were then planted among MADRS data from 18 genuine sites. A statistician blinded as to the identity and quantity of the fabricated data attempted to detect the ‘fraudulent’ data by searching for unusual means and correlations. One of the three fabricated sites was correctly identified, and one genuine site was incorrectly identified as a potential fabrication. In addition, inlying and/or outlying means and correlations found in the genuine data suggested the possibility of using statistical checks for unusual data early in a study so that sites with unusual patterns could be prioritized for monitoring, training and, if necessary, auditing. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

合作与互补：非营利组织的发展及其与政府关系之探讨

本文简要阐述了非营利组织的内涵、产生的原因及其发展过程,并结合中国实际情况分析了非营利组织与政府的关系,认为两者是一种合作与互补的关系,从而得出非营利组织的发展在中国社会转型关键期所具有的重要意义。     

发展先进文化全面提高公民思想道德素质

道德建设包括道德理论和规范的制定、宣传和教育,道德理想和风尚的提倡,道德信仰和行为的培养。道德教育是一项系统工程,它蕴涵在家庭教育、学校教育、职业教育、环境教育及社会大众传媒教育之中。     

GM(1,1)和ARMA组合预测模型及数据结构突变的预测

0引言经济数据在其生成过程中,常常受到外生冲击,而导致数据生成过程(D GP)产生结构突变,并且紧随结构变化之后,很多数据存在一个缓慢增长或下降的非线性调整趋势,亦理论上称之为的上界或下界[1](例如:促销政策变化导致销量变化、新技术的使用导致产量上升、外贸政策变化引起进     

朱熹关于世界的统一性与多样性——“理一分殊说”

"理一"不是实体,是极好致善的"表德",即人类共同的价值标准。"分殊"是万物的个体性、多样性和差异性。理一与分殊的关系不是概念论的一般与个别的关系,是生命论的整体与分体的关系。理一在万物中,在人的心灵中。"理一分殊"说不只是从概念"推下来",而且是从经验"推上去",是经验与观念的统一,分析与综合的统一。人人有真、善、美的价值诉求,但最重要的是理会多样性,立足于分殊而理会理一。理一作为生命的根本法则就是仁,其实现的方法是"忠恕",只有尊重事物的差异性,从中理会一贯的道理,才能实现共同价值。朱子从生命哲学的立场,试图为人类生活建立统一的价值法则,直接讨论人类生存方式这一重大课题,并深入到心灵世界的深处,挖掘共同的生命诉求,坚持多样性是人类存在的基本形态,通过多样性的实践而实现共同价值,有其重要意义。     

Reversed preservation of stochastic orders for random minima and maxima with applications

In this paper, reversed preservation properties of right spread order, total time on test order and increasing convex (concave) order when taking random minima and maxima are developed. In this context, reversed preservation properties of some ageing concepts are investigated under parallel (series) systems which are composed of a random number of i.i.d. components. Some applications in reliability and economics are given.     

一种扩展的功能磁共振BOLD动力学模型研究

结合Friston的BOLD动力学模型与Agnes Aubert建立的脑电生理和代谢藕合模型,提出了一种扩展的BOLD动力学模型。对改进的模型讨论了血液动力学模型血流的非线性特性,把脑的新陈代谢与血动力学模型的血流、血体积关联起来,并对BOLD模型中的输入信号进行研究。得到了能更好地模拟实际生理过程的仿真结果。     

实施用科研加快建设合格本科院校的战略举措

根据从专科转向建设本科院校的实践,本文首先讨论了科研在高校中的作用,接着阐述了科研工作的层次性特点,然后简述了用科研手段来加快由专科向本科转变步伐的可行性,最后就如何实施此项战略举措开展了较深入的探讨。所以,本文可能对于丰富在专科基础上快速建设合格本科院校的理论与实践具有意义。     

高职毕业设计环节存在的问题及对策

毕业设计(论文)是高职教育最后一个教学环节,也是一个十分重要的教学环节,但在目前大多数的高职院校中这一环节的教学还存在一些问题,要想彻底解决这些问题不是一朝一夕的事,但思想重视,措施得当必然可以使突出的矛盾得到缓解。