A simple procedure for the selection of significant effects

Summary.  Given a large number of test statistics, a small proportion of which represent departures from the relevant null hypothesis, a simple rule is given for choosing those statistics that are indicative of departure. It is based on fitting by moments a mixture model to the set of test statistics and then deriving an estimated likelihood ratio. Simulation suggests that the procedure has good properties when the departure from an overall null hypothesis is not too small.     

Statistical Analyses and Modelling of the Mixing Process of Euro Coins in Germany and Europe

This paper reports on the mixing of Euro coins from different countries of origin in Europe, which started on 1 January 2002. There is an interesting conclusion: that the mobility of small and large denominations is different. The long‐term behaviour of the mixing process is studied using a simple deterministic model and data from Germany, France and the Netherlands. The analysis leads to predictions about the future progress of the mixing process.     

中国就业市场中的性别歧视——对公众认知率的研究

调查结果表明:女性更关注工作过程中的性别歧视和职业隔离的性别歧视现象,女性仅对应聘过程中的性别歧视现象如女性的相貌、身高等要求、外来打工妹的应聘两个问题的认知率高于男性;女性对性骚扰性别歧视认知率与男性没有显著差异;公众对各种性别歧视现象的总体认知水平不高.     

《上博馆藏楚竹书·诗论》在《诗》学批评史上意义三题

上博<诗论>的发现,对整个先秦<诗>学批评的产生具有重大意义一、在从孔门<诗>教到<毛诗序>的流传过程中,上博<诗论>具有承上启下的作用;二、上博<诗论>对后世<诗>评具有指导性;三、上博<诗论>在文学批评史上有着深远意义.     

论中国艺术表演团体改革的实现途径--兼论中国文化体制改革的特殊性

中国文化事业体制改革的目标和道路要受到行业内部特殊矛盾运动形态的制约。以艺术表演团体改革为例透视文化事业单位改革与政府策略选择之间的关系,可以为决策者提供一种有关中国文化事业体制改革过程和特点的具象把握。在整个社会由计划经济体制向社会主义市场经济体制转轨时期,艺术表演团体固有的政治-伦理角色、市场-经营角色、艺术-行业角色三重身份和伦理性目标、政治性目标、经济效益目标、审美价值目标等多重目标之间相互矛盾、相互依存和对立统一,共同构成了艺术表演团体内部复杂的矛盾运动。而正是这种矛盾特殊性构成各级政府在推进艺术表演团体改革过程中的策略选择基础。     

关于人民币汇率问题的几点思考

人民币汇率不存在被严重低估的问题 ,升值没有客观必然性。目前人民币升值面临巨大压力 ,其主要原因在于我国不合理的外部均衡结构。人民币在未来也不会很快呈现出不断升值的变化趋势 ,中长期内的汇率变动趋势尚有待于观察 ,贬值压力同样不可低估。维持人民币汇率较长时期的稳定 ,延缓升值进程的发生 ,具有非常重要的战略意义     

The analysis of incomplete data using stochastic covariates

In the development of many diseases there are often associated random variables which continuously reflect the progress of a subject towards the final expression of the disease (failure). At any given time these processes, which we call stochastic covariates, may provide information about the current hazard and the remaining time to failure. Likewise, in situations when the specific times of key prior events are not known, such as the time of onset of an occult tumour or the time of infection with HIV-1, it may be possible to identify a stochastic covariate which reveals, indirectly, when the event of interest occurred. The analysis of carcinogenicity trials which involve occult tumours is usually based on the time of death or sacrifice and an indicator of tumour presence for each animal in the experiment. However, the size of an occult tumour observed at the endpoint represents data concerning tumour development which may convey additional information concerning both the tumour incidence rate and the rate of death to which tumour-bearing animals are subject. We develop a stochastic model for tumour growth and suggest different ways in which the effect of this growth on the hazard of failure might be modelled. Using a combined model for tumour growth and additive competing risks of death, we show that if this tumour size information is used, assumptions concerning tumour lethality, the context of observation or multiple sacrifice times are no longer necessary in order to estimate the tumour incidence rate. Parametric estimation based on the method of maximum likelihood is outlined and is applied to simulated data from the combined model. The results of this limited study confirm that use of the stochastic covariate tumour size results in more precise estimation of the incidence rate for occult tumours.     

隆线溞(Daphnia carinata king)的呼吸代谢测定

本文用Winkler法测定隆线溞(Caphnia carinata king)不同龄期个体的耗氧量及二幼龄个体在不同温度下的耗氧量。测得幼龄与成龄两阶段,其耗氧量分别以4.88×10~(-2)与1.695×10~(-1)的速率随体重增加而增大,耗氧率则分别随体重的增加而逐渐降低;在常温下,隆线溞耗氧量Y与温度X呈Y=3.69×10~(-3)×1.07~x的指数函数关系,由此得到,17℃—19℃是隆线搔生长速率快而耗氧量较小的最适人工培养温度。     

加强管理提高毕业设计(论文)质量

为提高学生毕业设计 (论文 )质量 ,在管理方面采取了一系列措施 :完善管理制度 ,注重质量控制 ,重视选题质量 ,加强教师指导 ,严格答辩要求 ,科学评定成绩 ,评选优秀设计 (论文 )。     

沈从文创作心理三部曲

沈从文家世的衰落和在社会(主要是在北京)遭到的拒绝使他产生了自卑心理,在摆脱自卑的重负和与城市搏斗的过程中,他形成了“乡下人”的审美立场,构建了城乡异趣的文学世界,从而使自己获得了自尊,达到了生命中的“高峰体验”,进而达到超越自卑的境界,成了“自我实现的人”。在心理的迁移过程中,沈从文的创作呈现了三部曲:感伤/回忆—嘲讽/抒情—白描/写实。在此基础上,《边城》意蕴、《长河》残卷也有了新的阐释。