我国企业建立农产品可追溯系统的成本分析及定价策略研究-基于A企业调研数据的分析

文章以实地调研获得的信息和数据为基础,首次明确分析我国实企业实施可追溯系统需要增加的成本,并以A企业为例,就其实施可追溯某产品具体定价进行了测算,结合笔者在调研中得到的消费者愿意为可追溯产品的支付意愿,为我国实施可追溯系统企业的定价提供相应对策和建议。研究显示,实施可追溯系统的企业产品成本不会大幅提高,企业对可追溯产品的高价策略通常是一种营销策略的选择。消费者对可追溯产品的支付意愿表明,可追溯产品的定价不适合盲目定高价,要充分考虑产品目标人群的收入水平及支付意愿。同时加强对消费者进行风险教育以及可追溯产品知识的普及,对可追溯产品的价格接受会起到重要作用。     

我国公民之法治信仰

在对法治信仰作出理论探讨的基础上，就我国公民法治信仰进行了历史考查与现实定位，并以全新的视角，提出了推动公民法治信仰的形成，巩固和提高的思路。     

话语标记语的动态性和主观性研究——兼谈认知参照视点视角下的话语标记语的认知机制

话语标记语是一个复杂的语用现象。本文首先从话语的动态性和话语的主观性两个方面对话语标记语的语用作用进行了分析。话语标记语是话语理解过程中的一种明示导向标记,对构建话语语境、理解说话者的话语意图起着重要作用。然后,以认知参照点为视角,分析了话语标记语存在的理据。认知参照点理论对话语标记语的认知机制有较强的解释力,为分析话语标记语提供了一个新的理论框架。     

消费需求、消费热点与经济增长关系分析

“过剩经济”时代的到来,使得社会经济的主要问题由供给不足型转变为需求约束型,消费需求不足成了经济增长的最大障碍,为了刺激消费需求,必须发展消费经济,培育消费热点,转变社会消费观念,提高消费者素质。只有这样,才能实现消费需求、消费热点与经济增长之间的良性循环。     

论余光中的散文观

余光中重诗轻文,把散文视作诗的附庸。他心目中的现代散文是"讲究弹性、密度和质料的一种新散文"。这对于抑制过于随便、松散乃至轻浮的散文有所裨益,但也有明显的偏颇,即未能把握散文美的特质———自然。诗笔可用于散文,但失去了节制,便适得其反。他的散文创作意在实践以诗为文的理念,其成就,说明以诗为文作为一种艺术追求无可非议;其局限,说明散文中的诗质应有所节制。余光中后来对散文美有所认识,提出了"本位散文"的概念,但因为重诗轻文的理念未能根本改变,故而所作"本位散文"成就十分有限。     

A Bayesian analysis of a change in the parameters of autoregressive time series

In this article, we consider a Bayesian analysis of a possible change in the parameters of autoregressive time series of known order p, AR(p). An unconditional Bayesian test based on highest posterior density (HPD) credible sets is determined. The test is useful to detect a change in any one of the parameters separately. Using the Gibbs sampler algorithm, we approximate the posterior densities of the change point and other parameters to calculate the p-values that define our test.     

Phase I monitoring and change point estimation of autocorrelated poisson regression profiles

The objective of this paper is to study the Phase I monitoring and change point estimation of autocorrelated Poisson profiles where the response values within each profile are autocorrelated. Two charts, the SLRT and the Hotelling's T², are proposed along with an algorithm for parameter estimation. The detecting power of the proposed charts is compared using simulations in terms of the signal probability criterion. The performance of the SLRT method in estimating the change point in the regression parameters is also evaluated. Moreover, a real data example is presented to illustrate the application of the methods.     

城市发展路径研究的主要观点

自20世纪80年代以来，与整个国家快速现代化的进程相一致，我国城市呈现出加速发展的趋势。为了推进我国城市沿着科学的方向快速、稳步、健康地发展，学者们从不同的视角对中国城市发展的路径提出了各自不同的观点。文章对有代表性的观点进行了梳理，并简短地陈述了从中得到的启示。     

Influence measure for the L1 regression

Because outliers and leverage observations unduly affect the least squares regression, the identification of influential observations is considered an important and integrai part of the analysis. However, very few techniques have been developed for the residual analysis and diagnostics for the minimum sum of absolute errors, L₁ regression. Although the L₁ regression is more resistant to the outliers than the least squares regression, it appears that outliers (leverage) in the predictor variables may affect it. In this paper, our objective is to develop an influence measure for the L₁ regression based on the likelihood displacement function. We illustrate the proposed influence measure with examples.     

Has the Lewis Turning Point Arrived in China?—Theoretical Analysis and International Experience

各国农业劳动力占总劳动力的比重随着各国人均GDP增长呈现先加速下降而后减 速下降的趋势, 分界点就是刘易斯转折点。跨国平行数据的回归结果表明, 刘易斯转 折点在人均GDP为3,000-4,000美元 (购买力平价2000年国际美元) 之间出现。中国的 人均GDP超越了这一水平, 但农业劳动力比重远高于该经济发展水平下的世界平均水 平, 这很可能意味着中国的农业劳动力转移仍有较大潜力。

关键词: 刘易斯转折点 劳动力转移 跨国平行数据

Using World Bank cross-country panel data to estimate the economic development level that corresponds to the Lewis turning point, we find that as GDP per capita increases, the share of rural labor in the total labor force tends to decrease first at an accelerated rate and then, after passing the Lewis turning point, at a reduced rate. Regression analysis of cross- country panel data shows that the Lewis turning point is reached when GDP per capita reaches somewhere between US$3,000 and US$4,000 dollars (PPP, constant international US dollars for the year 2000). GDP per capita in China has exceeded this level, but the proportion of rural labor in the total labor force remains much higher than the average for countries at the same level of economic development. This may imply that there is still considerable potential for rural labor transfer in China.