Foot-and-Mouth Disease Entrance Assessment Model Through Air Passenger Violations

This article aims to construct a risk model for the prediction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) entrance caused by passengers who illegally carry meat products of cloven-hoofed animals through international airports into a country. The risk that meat contaminated with the FMD virus is formulated as the probabilities of FMD factor events (the prevalence of FMD), the commodity factor event (the transportation, storage, and distribution (TSD) factor event), and the passenger event. Data used for analysis were records of illegal meat product carriers from areas A and B intercepted at an international airport in Taiwan. A risk model was proposed to simulate the probability distributions in disease prevalence, probability of FMD virus existing in the meat products after meat processing, and estimation of survival of virus and time period for TSD. The probability of the passenger event was hypothesized with the odds of intercepted passengers and estimated via logistic regression. The results showed that the odds of passengers being intercepted by beagles were higher than those intercepted by Customs. By conducting Monte Carlo simulations, the probability of FMD virus risk caused by FMD factors from area A was 149 times lower than that from area B. The probability of FMD virus risk caused by the passenger event from area A was four times lower than the corresponding probability from area B. The model provides a contribution to FMD prevention and can be a reference for developing models of other diseases.     

几种岭参数选择方法的比较

比较了不同的几种岭参数选择方法的应用效果，结果表明，几种方法中没有一种方法被认为是优于其它的方法。但在均方误差准则下．几种岭参数选择方法所获得的估计都改进了设计阵呈病态时的最小二乘估计。     

Inference on Causal Effects in a Generalized Regression Kink Design

We consider nonparametric identification and estimation in a nonseparable model where a continuous regressor of interest is a known, deterministic, but kinked function of an observed assignment variable. We characterize a broad class of models in which a sharp “Regression Kink Design” (RKD or RK Design) identifies a readily interpretable treatment‐on‐the‐treated parameter (Florens, Heckman, Meghir, and Vytlacil (2008)). We also introduce a “fuzzy regression kink design” generalization that allows for omitted variables in the assignment rule, noncompliance, and certain types of measurement errors in the observed values of the assignment variable and the policy variable. Our identifying assumptions give rise to testable restrictions on the distributions of the assignment variable and predetermined covariates around the kink point, similar to the restrictions delivered by Lee (2008) for the regression discontinuity design. Using a kink in the unemployment benefit formula, we apply a fuzzy RKD to empirically estimate the effect of benefit rates on unemployment durations in Austria.     

Semiparametric regression methods for temporal processes subject to multiple sources of censoring

Process regression methodology is underdeveloped relative to the frequency with which pertinent data arise. In this article, the response-190 is a binary indicator process representing the joint event of being alive and remaining in a specific state. The process is indexed by time (e.g., time since diagnosis) and observed continuously. Data of this sort occur frequently in the study of chronic disease. A general area of application involves a recurrent event with non-negligible duration (e.g., hospitalization and associated length of hospital stay) and subject to a terminating event (e.g., death). We propose a semiparametric multiplicative model for the process version of the probability of being alive and in the (transient) state of interest. Under the proposed methods, the regression parameter is estimated through a procedure that does not require estimating the baseline probability. Unlike the majority of process regression methods, the proposed methods accommodate multiple sources of censoring. In particular, we derive a computationally convenient variant of inverse probability of censoring weighting based on the additive hazards model. We show that the regression parameter estimator is asymptotically normal, and that the baseline probability function estimator converges to a Gaussian process. Simulations demonstrate that our estimators have good finite sample performance. We apply our method to national end-stage liver disease data. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 48: 222–237; 2020 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

Modal non‐linear regression in the presence of Laplace measurement error

In this paper, we propose a robust estimation procedure for a class of non‐linear regression models when the covariates are contaminated with Laplace measurement error, aiming at constructing an estimation procedure for the regression parameters which are less affected by the possible outliers, and heavy‐tailed underlying distribution, as well as reducing the bias introduced by the measurement error. Starting with the modal regression procedure developed for the measurement error‐free case, a non‐trivial modification is made so that the modified version can effectively correct the potential bias caused by measurement error. Large sample properties of the proposed estimate, such as the convergence rate and the asymptotic normality, are thoroughly investigated. A simulation study and real data application are conducted to illustrate the satisfying finite sample performance of the proposed estimation procedure.     

Bayesian inference for zero-and-one-inflated geometric distribution regression model using Pólya-Gamma latent variables

Abstract

In the fields of internet financial transactions and reliability engineering, there could be more zero and one observations simultaneously. In this paper, considering that it is beyond the range where the conventional model can fit, zero-and-one-inflated geometric distribution regression model is proposed. Ingeniously introducing Pólya-Gamma latent variables in the Bayesian inference, posterior sampling with high-dimensional parameters is converted to latent variables sampling and posterior sampling with lower-dimensional parameters, respectively. Circumventing the need for Metropolis-Hastings sampling, the sample with higher sampling efficiency is obtained. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the proposed estimation for various sample sizes. Finally, a doctoral dissertation data set is analyzed to illustrate the practicability of the proposed method, research shows that zero-and-one-inflated geometric distribution regression model using Pólya-Gamma latent variables can achieve better fitting results.     

Penalized proportion estimation for non parametric mixture of regressions

Abstract

In this article, we propose a penalized local log-likelihood method to locally select the number of components in non parametric finite mixture of regression models via proportion shrinkage method. Mean functions and variance functions are estimated simultaneously. We show that the number of components can be estimated consistently, and further establish asymptotic normality of functional estimates. We use a modified EM algorithm to estimate the unknown functions. Simulations are conducted to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method. We illustrate our method via an empirical analysis of the housing price index data of United States.     

公司治理对会计信息披露质量影响 ——基于我国生物医药业上市公司的实证研究

会计信息披露是企业向信息使用者揭示和反映企业价值运动,高质量的信息披露可以降低信息不对称程度,使投资者能更正确地做出判断.以生物医药业上市公司为例,采用Logistic回归分析方法,系统研究公司治理与会计信息的披露质量之间的关系,发现公司治理中的董事会规模、独立董事比例和监事会规模的提高会使得会计信息披露质量得到提高,董事会会议次数与会计信息披露质量显著负相关.