文明冲突中的中国文明与人口--亨廷顿的文明冲突论及人口要素

"9.11"恐怖事件发生以后,美国著名学者塞缪尔·亨廷顿"文明冲突"的观点再次引起了国际社会和各国学者的广泛关注.亨廷顿关于文明、文化冲突的分析范式是值得我们认真关注的一个视角.在此视角下,本文讨论了文明冲突的本质以及中国文明的特质和作用;讨论了人口要素与文明兴衰之间的关系;本文最后指出,中国需要重新审视中国人口发展的长远战略.     

Changing Demographic Characteristics and the Family Status of Chinese Women

The model developed in this paper extends Bongaarts's nuclear family model into a general one that accounts for both nuclear and three-generation families, and which is expected to be more widely applicable. In the paper a simulation and comparison of two cohorts of women who are assumed to live out their lives under demographic conditions of China in 1950–70 and 1981 is presented. The status distribution and expected years spent in different parities, marital statuses, being the child of surviving parent(s), being a parent of living children, and having responsibility for both elderly parent(s) and young children etc. are given. The consequences of the dramatic demographic changes are clearly demonstrated.     

试论曹操的儒家思想

试论曹操的儒家思想王云林曹操是东汉末年杰出的政治家、军事家和文学家。而作为一个多才多家的曹操，对其思想的研究者大都认为曹操是法家杰出的代表人物，也即认为其思想倾向属于法家。笔者认为，曹操的基本思想是儒家，这是贯穿于曹操思想中的主旋律，这种看法是比较切...     

《九章算术》汉代文通史料研究

《九章算术》汉代文通史料研究王子今汉代是中国交通史进程中最重要的历史时期之一。两汉时期交通建设达到新的水平，交通对于社会政治经济文化发展的作用受到空前的重视，交通运输的生产形式为此后二千年交通事业的进步奠定了基本格局。《九章算术》是成书于汉代的我国现...     

范缜是社旗县人

范缜是社旗县人惠国钟，杜道德范镇，字子真，我国古代著名的朴素唯物主义思想家，生于南北朝时期约宋文帝（刘义隆）二十二年至梁武帝（肖衍）天监十四年（４５０—５１５），出身寒微，少时好学，博通经术。先后仕齐、梁，任尚书殿中郎、尚书左丞等职。对于这位历史地位...     

The effect of categorisation on testing for an exponential scale shift

A consequence of the fact that observations of random variables are discrete, is that the usual continuous models are inappropriate. Observations have an induced multinomial distribution where the cell probabilities depend on the form of the unobservable continuous distribution. We discuss one particular case: testing for the scale parameter of an exponential distribution. Sizes, powers and asymptotic relative efficiencies are used to assess the effect of categorisation. There are many parameters and we have not given a complete assessment. However our discussion gives a guide to the approach that may be adopted in similar cases. In the case we discuss, we give a preferred procedure that appears to be more convenient and less objectionable than its obvious competitors.     

On the application of improved symplectic integrators in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

We explore the construction of new symplectic numerical integration schemes to be used in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and study their efficiency. Integration schemes from Blanes et al., and a new scheme are considered as candidates to the commonly used leapfrog method. All integration schemes are tested within the framework of the No-U-Turn sampler (NUTS), both for a logistic regression model and a student t-model. The results show that the leapfrog method is inferior to all the new methods both in terms of asymptotic expected acceptance probability for a model problem and the efficient sample size per computing time for the realistic models.     

Sample size algorithm for randomized response model with dichotomized response

The sample size calculation plays an important role in many areas, particularly for applications in the biomedical and social sciences. Large-sample size is wasting of time and resources. Small-sample provides unreliable answer. In the literature, the aim of sample size calculation is to either detecting the difference among groups statistically or assessing the precision of estimate. Other than these two main goals of sample size determination, the objective of this article is to provide the sample size formulae for randomized/nonrandomized response models such that the estimates of sensitive probabilities falling inside the normal interval [0, 1] are guaranteed under a certain confidence. The sample size algorithm is introduced because of no closed form solution for sample size. A higher confidence probability, a greater sample size should be included into the study. Vice versa, larger sample sizes generally lead to increase the chance of the estimated probability falling in [0, 1]. An example is given to illustrate the use of the proposed algorithm.     

Testing for panel cointegration in an error-correction framework with an application to the Fisher hypothesis

In this article, three innovative panel error-correction model (PECM) tests are proposed. These tests are based on the multivariate versions of the Wald (W), likelihood ratio (LR), and Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests. Using Monte Carlo simulations, the size and power of the tests are investigated when the error terms exhibit both cross-sectional dependence and independence. We find that the LM test is the best option when the error terms follow independent white-noise processes. However, in the more empirically relevant case of cross-sectional dependence, we conclude that the W test is the optimal choice. In contrast to previous studies, our method is general and does not rely on the strict assumption that a common factor causes the cross-sectional dependency. In an empirical application, our method is also demonstrated in terms of the Fisher effect—a hypothesis about the existence of which there is still no clear consensus. Based on our sample of the five Nordic countries we utilize our powerful test and discover evidence which, in contrast to most previous research, confirms the Fisher effect.     

温室效应:人口要负多大责任?

由于各国经济利益不一致,气候变化谈判博弈艰难。在这种形势下,人口控制对减少温室气体排放的意义,近来被国际社会部分人士及中国政府重新提及,值得关注。自1972年世界环境大会以来,发达国家对世界人口问题的看法发生过180度的转变,否认发展中国家人口快速增长对经济的不利作用,否认人口与环境问题相关的观点,渐成西方学术界主流,由学术界蔓延到西方政府,并深刻影响着发展中国家许多学者的认识。文章论述了人口规模对温室气体排放的影响,试分析了上述西方主流观点在研究方法上存在的问题。目前,中国正进入快速工业化阶段,对庞大人口不断放大的经济、资源、环境影响,本文认为必须有极为清醒的认识。