Three Fertility Compromises and Two Transitions

Demographers and those concerned with population policy are increasingly focusing on the steep fertility declines that occurred in developed countries from the 1960s and the consequent widespread below-replacement fertility levels. The decline has been termed the Second Demographic Transition. This paper argues that the recent demographic change can best be understood and analyzed if we broaden the concept to include the first demographic transition, and the three demographically more settled periods preceding, separating, and following the two fertility transitions. These more settled periods or “compromises” are examined to ascertain their nature and so to help predict the likely developments in the present or third compromise. It is argued that the third compromise has now extended for 20 years with little movement in fertility rates or other socioeconomic behavior which has been said to be associated with the second transition, and that this provides sufficient evidence for analysis. The approach has two key aspects. First, it is confined in Europe to countries that distinctly experienced the full five demographic periods, namely northwestern and central Europe. Second, the analysis gains strength by including non-European countries that progressed through all five stages, namely the English-speaking countries of overseas European settlement: USA, United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand.     

Replacement Migration: A Questionable Tactic for Delaying the Inevitable Effects of Fertility Transition

This article critiques a recent U.N. Population Division report, Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations? The report explores the use of increased immigration to bolster future population size and change age distribution patterns in a group of developed countries. Fertility rate declines and lengthening life expectancies associated with demographic transition inevitably yield an aging population and a falling potential support ratio (PSR), a situation which some demographers and economists view with alarm. As the U.N. report itself suggests, replacement migration can only temporarily delay population aging and decline. These issues are ultimately better addressed through changes in retirement policy. Population projections should be used only with great caution in designing long-term demographic policy. In particular, some assumptions used to make the U.N. projections are questionable, and even minor changes in those assumptions would yield substantially different policy conclusions. Replacement migration also raises difficult environmental questions by moving large numbers of people from low to high per-capita consumption nations. Modest population decline, particularly in more developed countries, may have significant local and global environmental and climate policy benefits.

     

对生育观转变的标志的反思

生育观及其转变有确定的内涵,生育观的转变是一个由量变到质变的动态过程,它包括：生育动机的转变,生育主体范围的转变,生育观转变方式的转变和生育文化环境的转变四个子过程的转变。上述四要素的转变相辅相成,相互制约,其转变形成的四个临界点共同构成了判断生育观转变的综合尺度。以上述单一要素在量变阶段某一个时点发生的转变作为生育观转变的标志,是有失客观、理性的;生育行为方式的转变,仅部分程度上反应生育动机的转变,它具有表面性和不稳定性。笔者建议把它作为判断生育观转变的辅助参数,而非标志来使用。     

Learning basic employability competence: a challenge for the active labour insertion of adolescents in residential care in their transition to adulthood

The teaching of basic employability competence from a very early age is of preventive value in the transition of young people in residential care to adulthood. The present research relates employability competence (finding and holding down a job and gaining promotion in the labour market) with positive career outcomes and employment opportunities. In this study, conceptual methods for understanding employability are analysed and some existing international studies of employability skills are reviewed, although all of these are deemed partial approaches to the needs of children and young people in residential care. Our proposal, the IARS (Infancia y Adolescencia en Riesgo Social [Children and Young People at Social Risk]) Employability Competence Framework, developed by means of a collaborative and integrated approach with experts, provides a complete picture of how employability competences are important for preparing young people in residential care not only for active labour insertion but also in terms of their comprehensive development. A selection of a cluster of eight employability competences (self-organisation, decision-making and problem-solving, teamwork, communication, perseverance, professional project development, flexibility and responsibility) and their components are presented, as well as its educational implications within children's homes.     

Integration's challenges and opportunities in the Wealthy West

A demographic transition to greater ethno-racial diversity, the product in part of large-scale immigration over decades, will create challenges and opportunities for Western societies in coming decades. In this paper, based on our study of the USA and four Western European countries, we sift evidence from the first decade of the twenty-first century to look for clues about the possible consequences of the transition for the integration of the second generation, specifically, the children of low-status immigrants. We find unmet challenges when it comes to educational attainment and early labour-market position. That is, although on average the second generation advances beyond its parents, in each society it lags well behind its agemates from the native majority. Yet we also find, using data from the USA, that segments of the second generation are experiencing social mobility into the upper tiers of the occupational hierarchy and socially integrating with members of the majority group, arguably expanding the societal mainstream. This paradoxical picture, we argue, captures crucial dynamics that will affect the near future in the wealthy West.     

《山月记》及《人虎传》中对唐前虎的变身谈要素的继承

为查明中岛敦的短篇小说《山月记》以及其所依据中国唐代的传奇小说《人虎传》两文学作品受到前代文学怎样的影响,首先从宋朝初期编纂的《太平御览》入手,按时间顺序进行纵向考察。其次在对《山月记》和《人虎传》进行比较的基础上,阐明在两作品中对于唐前虎的变身谈中的要素的继承情况。从变身原因和变身前后的状态来看,唐代传奇小说《人虎传》在很大程度上受到了东晋以后的虎变身谈的影响。中岛敦的《山月记》中虽然可见《人虎传》对其的直接影响,但从变身原因及变身前后状态的角度来看,其受到中国唐前虎的变身谈的影响很小。     

中国经济转轨中高等教育变革的特征

中国是转轨国家,中国大学的改革具有独特的演进逻辑。大学应提供国家创新体系中的知识内核,发展出相应的大学文化和大学追求,并发挥人才培养、知识创造和研究开发基地的职能。消费需求、国际竞争压力、相关支持产业是中国高等教育改革的驱动力,而投资严重不足、产出结构欠佳和高级要素缺乏是中国高等教育改革的障碍。     

转型路径与经济增长——中俄经济转型与经济增长比较研究

本文通过构造一个带管理资本学习过程的经济增长模型来分析俄罗斯及中国的特定经济转型路径、模式及绩效比较.分析表明转型模式虽然对转型初期的增长有所影响,但并不是转型绩效最基本的决定因素.不同模式并不存在非此即彼、此优彼劣的必然关系,而且.两个国家还都在继续转型过程中,持续的经济增长和福利改善还需改革的进一步深化.     

论转型期弱势群体政治参与与社会公正

转型期弱势群体政治参与问题的根本原因在于弱势群体政治参与权利的贫困,即在政府主导的各种价值分配中以及与此有关的各种公共政策制定中,弱势群体的愿望和利益得不到及时、有效、真实的反映,与其他社会群体相比,弱势群体处于政治参与权利不平等的地位。社会公正的实质是社会主体权利的平等性,而转型期弱势群体在政治参与权利上的不平等违背了社会公正原则,所以解决好弱势群体政治参与问题是促进社会公正的必然要求。     

“大调解”机制构建之反思

近年来,“大调解”作为一种新的纠纷解决机制日渐兴起。转型时期社会矛盾纠纷的特征以及现行人民调解制度的有效性危机是“大调解”机制建设的基本背景。同传统的纠纷解决机制相比,“大调解”机制在当前转型时期优势明显,但是也存在一系列不容忽视的内在紧张,如合理性与合法性的紧张,运作的行政化,性质与功能的定位有待进一步澄清等等。长远来看,培育社会本身的矛盾化解能力,提升社会自治程度依然是“大调解”机制建设的努力方向。