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31.
中国产业结构变动与就业水平的实证研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
文章运用时间序列和计量模型研究了中国产业结构与就业水平之间的发展关系.首先运用格兰杰因果检验分析了第一、二、三次产业的产值与其就业之间的因果影响关系,继而从产值与就业两个角度定量分析了第一、二、三次产业各自对总就业水平的贡献,得出结论:第一产业和第三产业是劳动力就业的决定因素,而第二产业不是就业的决定因素;从产值角度来看,第三产业对劳动力就业的贡献最大,从就业角度来看,第一产业的就业对总体就业水平的贡献最高,其次是第三产业,而第二产业的就业对总体就业水平的贡献最小.最后根据研究结论提出相应的建议措施. 相似文献
32.
金琦 《武汉科技大学学报(社会科学版)》2006,8(2):41-45
合伙律师事务所是一个复杂且特殊的组织,其管理水平超过对企业的管理水平,因此更需要创新管理,以真正实现现代化、国际化、规模化和品牌化。本文从比较我国合伙律师事务所管理模式的发展阶段着手,分析了不同阶段和不同管理模式的优缺点;继而提出构建杠铃管理的新模式,对合伙律师事务所进行有效管理,即重点抓好品牌管理和人本管理,结合贝克.麦肯思律师事务所的成功管理经验进行实证分析。 相似文献
33.
Chong Gu 《Revue canadienne de statistique》2004,32(4):347-358
The author proposes some simple diagnostics for assessing the necessity of selected terms in smoothing spline ANOVA models. The elimination of practically insignificant terms generally enhances the interpretability of the estimates and sometimes may also have inferential implications. The diagnostics are derived from Kullback‐Leibler geometry and are illustrated in the settings of regression, probability density estimation, and hazard rate estimation. 相似文献
34.
The authors propose graphical and numerical methods for checking the adequacy of the logistic regression model for matched case‐control data. Their approach is based on the cumulative sum of residuals over the covariate or linear predictor. Under the assumed model, the cumulative residual process converges weakly to a centered Gaussian limit whose distribution can be approximated via computer simulation. The observed cumulative residual pattern can then be compared both visually and analytically to a certain number of simulated realizations of the approximate limiting process under the null hypothesis. The proposed techniques allow one to check the functional form of each covariate, the logistic link function as well as the overall model adequacy. The authors assess the performance of the proposed methods through simulation studies and illustrate them using data from a cardiovascular study. 相似文献
35.
It is well known that the unimodal maximum likelihood estimator of a density is consistent everywhere but at the mode. The authors review various ways to solve this problem and propose a new estimator that is concave over an interval containing the mode; this interval may be chosen by the user or through an algorithm. The authors show how to implement their solution and compare it to other approaches through simulations. They show that the new estimator is consistent everywhere and determine its rate of convergence in the Hellinger metric. 相似文献
36.
Jason P. Fine David V. Glidden Kristine E. Lee 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2003,65(1):317-329
Summary. We propose a simple estimation procedure for a proportional hazards frailty regression model for clustered survival data in which the dependence is generated by a positive stable distribution. Inferences for the frailty parameter can be obtained by using output from Cox regression analyses. The computational burden is substantially less than that of the other approaches to estimation. The large sample behaviour of the estimator is studied and simulations show that the approximations are appropriate for use with realistic sample sizes. The methods are motivated by studies of familial associations in the natural history of diseases. Their practical utility is illustrated with sib pair data from Beaver Dam, Wisconsin. 相似文献
37.
Valentine Genon-Catalot Thierry Jeantheau Catherine Laredo 《Scandinavian Journal of Statistics》2003,30(2):297-316
ABSTRACT. This paper develops a new contrast process for parametric inference of general hidden Markov models, when the hidden chain has a non-compact state space. This contrast is based on the conditional likelihood approach, often used for ARCH-type models. We prove the strong consistency of the conditional likelihood estimators under appropriate conditions. The method is applied to the Kalman filter (for which this contrast and the exact likelihood lead to asymptotically equivalent estimators) and to the discretely observed stochastic volatility models. 相似文献
38.
A Sparse Implementation of the Average Information Algorithm for Factor Analytic and Reduced Rank Variance Models 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Robin Thompson Brian Cullis Alison Smith Arthur Gilmour 《Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics》2003,45(4):445-459
Factor analytic variance models have been widely considered for the analysis of multivariate data particularly in the psychometrics area. Recently Smith, Cullis & Thompson (2001) have considered their use in the analysis of multi‐environment data arising from plant improvement programs. For these data, the size of the problem and the complexity of the variance models chosen to account for spatial heterogeneity within trials implies that standard algorithms for fitting factor analytic models can be computationally expensive. This paper presents a sparse implementation of the average information algorithm (Gilmour, Thompson & Cullis, 1995) for fitting factor analytic and reduced rank variance models. 相似文献
39.
杨利军 《西南交通大学学报(社会科学版)》2008,9(4):94-100
在加德纳的多元化智能理论指导下,从学生个性发展、教材层面、教师授课角度、学生语言接受能力等方面对外语戏剧节对学生的影响进行观察性描述,通过抽样调查,可以得出结论:外语戏剧节对英语专业学生的间接影响主要体现在提高学习自信心、增强学习动机上;戏剧节对英语专业学生的直接影响,更多表现在对班级文化和身份的积极建塑上. 相似文献
40.
刘澄 《湖南大学学报(社会科学版)》2003,17(1):35-39
应用平稳性检验、协整性检验与因果检验,分析货币政策对经济政策与物价变动的影响,以此检验货币政策的有效性。实证结果表明,金融变量与经济增长、物价变动之间存在着长期稳定的因果关系,特别是80年代以来推行的市场经济改革,增强了中央银行选择货币供应量作为中介指标的可操作性,中央银行可通过控制货币供给总量来影响宏观经济活动,达到间接调控的目的。 相似文献