Improving coverage accuracy of nonparametric prediction intervals

Methods are suggested for improving the coverage accuracy of intervals for predicting future values of a random variable drawn from a sampled distribution. It is shown that properties of solutions to such problems may be quite unexpected. For example, the bootstrap and the jackknife perform very poorly when used to calibrate coverage, although the jackknife estimator of the true coverage is virtually unbiased. A version of the smoothed bootstrap can be employed for successful calibration, however. Interpolation among adjacent order statistics can also be an effective way of calibrating, although even there the results are unexpected. In particular, whereas the coverage error can be reduced from O ( n ^-1) to orders O ( n ^-2) and O ( n ^-3) (where n denotes the sample size) by interpolating among two and three order statistics respectively, the next two orders of reduction require interpolation among five and eight order statistics respectively.     

现代企业制度与企业家队伍

认为现代企业制度是市场经济体制的基础。在市场经济条件下 ,我国国有企业要走出困境必须从根本上改变原有的企业制度。而现代企业制度的建立 ,需要有一支锐意进取富有创造力的企业家队伍。因此 ,要把建立现代企业制度和企业家队伍建设有机结合起来。要立足于建立现代企业制度树立选择企业家的新观念 ,通过市场竞争机制形成符合市场经济运行的企业家评价标准 ,不断提高企业家自身的素质 ,发挥企业家的作用 ,使企业家真正成为市场经济的主角。     

Generalized sequential ranks and tests of randomness

Generalized sequential ranks are defined and are proved to be independent and uniformly distributed under the hypothesis of randomness. By comparison with a Spear-MAsr-type statistic it is shown that in certain cases the test based on the sum of all sequential ranks is an asymptotically optimum test for trend against logistic regression. The test is equivalent to tests proposed by Jonckheere and Terpstra and has a high efficiency when compared with the optimal parametric test for normal regression alternatives.     

略论蜀汉政权的选举制度

三国时期,刘备建立的蜀汉政权国祚最短,故在制度创新方面,建树不多。关于蜀国的政治和经济制度,陈寿《三国志》记载粗略,其他文献亦语焉未祥,这对于还原蜀汉政权的制度建设,造成相当大的困难。以下就蜀汉政权制度建设中的选举制度及其特点进行讨论,指出蜀汉政权并未实行如曹魏、孙吴所使用的较成熟的九品官人法之深层原因。     

浅谈独立学院班团干部队伍的建设与培养

班委员会与团支部作为最基层的学生组织，既是联系师生的桥梁和纽带，又是辅导员、班主任开展学生思想政治工作和管理工作的助手。对于独立学院的学生管理工作来说更是如此，因此建设一支高素质的班团干部队伍，既是独立学院学生工作的一项重要内容，又是以点带面做好学生工作的有效方法之一。同时，班团干部在学生中起着指导和潜移默化的影响作用，所以干部素质的高低直接影响到班风、学风与考风的好坏。而班团干部素质的提高主要依靠辅导员在学生工作实践中的指导、培养和建设。     

All Forecasters Are Equal

From an analysis of the track records of U.S. economic forecasters, Stekler (1987) concluded that “all forecasters are not equal” (p. 158). This article shows that his result is based on an incorrectly defined test statistic. When a more appropriate test is conducted, the figures suggest that accuracy rankings are not significantly different from those that might be expected as a result of sampling error in a population of equally accurate forecasters.     

加强重点学科建设提高合并院校整体办学水平——北华大学重点学科建设的成效与体会

本文通过抓重点学科建设所取得的成效，阐述了地方合并院校以重点学科建设为龙头，以主动为地方经济社会发展服务为办学宗旨，全面推进学校各项事业发展，探索出了一条提升地方合并院校整体办学实力与水平之路。     

Rank-based test procedures for interaction in the two-way layout with one observation per cell

New aligned-rank test procedures for the composite null hypothesis of no interaction effects (without placing restrictions on the two main effects) against appropriate composite general alternatives are developed for the standard two-way layout with a single observation per cell. Relative power performances of the two new aligned-rank procedures and existing tests due to Tukey (1949) and to de Kroon & van der Laan (1981) are examined via Monte Carlo simulation. Extensive power studies conducted on the 5 × 6 and 5 × 9 two-way layouts with one observation per cell show superior performance of the new procedures for a variety of interaction effects. Simulated critical values for the new procedures are provided in settings where the number of levels for each of the factors is between 3 and 9, inclusive.     

睡虎地秦简“都官”新解

云梦睡虎地秦简之中关于"都官"的简文达14处之多,而在所知的秦朝时期的史料并没有关于"都官"的记载。秦简中的"都官"并不是中央京师诸卿部门直接下派的部属机构,而是中央政府直接统属。不仅京师有"都官",地方基层政权也有"都官",但二者是有区别的:地方"都官"秩级虽然不高,但可以与"县"共同行使经济管理的职权;在京师的"都官"秩级有别,职权也不尽相同。     

A monte carlo study of the f test and three tests based on ranks of treatment effects in randomized block designs

The F test is compared with three procedures based on ranks for testing treatment effects in the randomized complete block, fixed effects, model with one observation per cell.