网络社区发现算法在流动表建模中的设计与应用

代际流动表可以统计子代与其父代社会地位配对数据的交互频数,反映了社会资源占有的优劣势在父子两代人之间的比较。对财富、阶级、特权等社会基本特征演变的实证考察,均依赖于代际流动表的量化分析。对数线性模型是流动表建模分析的基本工具,通过对列联表单元格频数进行拟合,可以识别流动表行分类与列分类之间的强弱交互效应,刻画父子社会地位间的交互结构。本文利用复杂网络社区发现算法分析父子社会地位的关联结构,针对简约对数线性模型拟合精度不够的问题,提出一种新的建模思路：利用社区发现算法对简约对数线性模型的残差列联表进行关联关系挖掘,将发现的社区效应作为附加参数约束引入原对数线性模型,以改善数据的拟合情况。由于该方法只在原简约对数线性模型中增加了一个参数约束,因此仍可以保证建模结果的简洁性及理论意义,同时社区效应补充了原对数线性模型对经验数据结构的解读。论文用此方法对来源于中国综合社会调查数据的经验代际职业流动表进行建模分析,较好地解释了子代职业阶层与父代职业阶层间的关联模式。     

Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

Parenting a child with Autism Spectrum disorder: parental work context

This research contributes to the literature on work-related factors for parents raising a child with a disability. Specifically, we used questionnaire methodology to compare two parent families raising a child with Autism Spectrum (AS) with similar families raising ‘typical’ children. Our findings suggested that parents raising a child with AS self-report higher parenting stress and more mental health symptomatology, as well as lower overall job satisfaction, less satisfaction with supervisors and less workplace contentment. In addition, our findings suggested that parents raising a child with a disability self-report similarly to parents raising ‘typical’ children with respect to work interest, commitment and quality, as well as time missed. In conclusion, our results appear to suggested that despite increased parental stress related to parenting a child with AS, with respect to several work-related factors, there are more similarities than differences among these parenting groups.     

快速傅里叶变换在导热逆问题中的应用

本文用通过快速傅里叶变换来进行逆拉氏变换的方法解决导热逆问题。众所周知,内点温度的测量误差往往导致导热逆问题计算的不稳定。作者用频谱分析的概念解决了这一困难。文中提出了测量温度时固体内点不同位置、内点温度的测量误差以及数值计算可采用的时间步长之间的关系。计算实例表明,本文所提供的方法对于瞬变现象的研究有很大的实用价值。     

甜菜碱与羧甲基纤维素钠相互作用的研究

本文通过表面张力法和粘度法研究了十四烷基甜菜碱(C_(14)BE)与羧甲基纤维素钠(CMC-Na)的相互作用,并通过紫外吸收光谱法对其作用机理进行了探讨。发现在pH=2时,两者由于静电吸引作用而形成复合物,pH=7时无复合物生成,但对彼此的性质仍有影响。外加盐促进了两者间氢键的形成,使pH=7的情况下也产生了复合物。     

从2003年的BCEIA会看我国光谱仪器的水平和差距

本文论述了我国光谱仪器的制造水平,与2003年BCEIA参展的美国、日本等国家的光谱仪器相比,尚存在较大的差距。同时也肯定了国产的优秀仪器,并指出我国发展光谱仪器的方向。     

关于幂p.n.p.矩阵的谱性质

本文讨论了幂p,n,p矩阵的谱性质,并给出了其特征值界的一些估计式。     

Why Aggregate Long Memory Time Series?

This article shows that, for large samples, temporally aggregating a true long memory time series (in order to get an improved estimator) may make little or no sense, as the practitioner can get virtually the same estimates as those from the aggregated series by choosing the appropriate bandwidths on the original one, provided some fairly general conditions apply. Besides, the practitioner has a wider choice of bandwidths than she has of aggregating levels. However, these results apply only to two specific and commonly used estimators, and do not apply to the aggregation procedure undertaken to compute the realized volatility. Also, aggregating a time series in order to test true versus spurious long memory (as in Ohanissian et al., 2008) is a relevant issue, particularly regarding stochastic and/or realized volatility, as many nonlinear processes display spurious long memory where the above result does not apply.     

改革开放以来我国货币供给周期波动特征

 货币供给的周期波动是国民经济发展过程中的必然现象,其周期波动的测定与分析是制定货币政策的基础。首先对我国M0、M1和M2三层次货币供给的时间序列进行HP滤波与平稳化,然后利用现代谱分析方法对我国货币供应的周期波动特征进行了测定与分析,结果显示：改革开放以来我国M0和M1供给均存在季节波动、3年、6个月和4个月左右的周期波动;M2存在10年、4年以及3年左右的周期波动;所有层次货币供应的变动幅度与长期趋势间存在线性关系。     

Memory properties and aggregation of spatial autoregressive models

A random field displays long (resp. short) memory when its covariance function is absolutely non-summable (resp. summable), or alternatively when its spectral density (spectrum) is unbounded (resp. bounded) at some frequencies. Drawing on the spectrum approach, this paper characterizes both short and long memory features in the spatial autoregressive model. The data generating process is presented as a sequence of spatial autoregressive micro-relationships. The study elaborates the exact conditions under which short and long memories emerge for micro-relationships and for the aggregated field as well. To study the spectrum of the aggregated field, we develop a new general concept referred to as the ‘root order of a function’. This concept might be usefully applied in studying the convergence of some special integrals. We illustrate our findings with simulation experiments and an empirical application based on Gross Domestic Product data for 100 countries spanning over 1960–2004.