The Conversational Model and Child and Family Counselling: Treating Chronic Complex Trauma in a Systemic Framework

Child and Family Counselling Teams in NSW Community Health Services are expected to provide therapeutic services to children who have experienced complex trauma. However, parental trauma is often overlooked or referred elsewhere. A systemic perspective informed by attachment theory and trauma theory provides the basis for addressing parental trauma in Child and Family Counselling Teams, thereby improving parenting. The Conversational Model is an evidence‐based intervention for chronic complex trauma. The foundations of the Conversational Model and its brief component, Short Term Intensive Psychodynamic Psychotherapy, are outlined and a case study is given to illustrate the usefulness of the intervention in Child and Family Counselling. Highlighted is the importance of addressing systemic trauma through parenting to improve attachment quality, family relationships, and children's function.     

Exploring how the social model of disability can be re-invigorated: in response to Mike Oliver

In his 2013 article in Disability & Society, Oliver recommended that the social model should either be replaced or re-invigorated. I argue here that the social model’s current emphasis reflects the social conditions in which it was introduced, and that the model’s impact on disabled people’s lives would increase if its emphasis was to more accurately reflect the current social conditions in the geographical regions in which it is applied. In order to help foster its re-invigoration, I ask five questions for discussion on the way forward for the social model. I identified my questions through examining published writing on the scope of the social model and on the model’s relationship with other models of disability.     

Model selection criteria in beta regression with varying dispersion

We address the issue of model selection in beta regressions with varying dispersion. The model consists of two submodels, namely: for the mean and for the dispersion. Our focus is on the selection of the covariates for each submodel. Our Monte Carlo evidence reveals that the joint selection of covariates for the two submodels is not accurate in finite samples. We introduce two new model selection criteria that explicitly account for varying dispersion and propose a fast two step model selection scheme which is considerably more accurate and is computationally less costly than usual joint model selection. Monte Carlo evidence is presented and discussed. We also present the results of an empirical application.     

Indigenous Micro-Ethnicity and Principles of Identification in Southeast Borneo

This article explores the nature of indigenous ethnicity in Borneo and its historical transformation. The principal focus is on Dayak ethnicity beneath the level of generic Dayak identity. Through examples from interior southeast Borneo, I describe a historically dominant pattern of identification with small and localised groups and the emergence of larger ethnic categories. Like elsewhere in Borneo, a condition of pervasive micro-ethnic differentiation was endemic, while larger categories were generally unimportant and mostly evolved only recently. I assess the importance of different underlying principles of collective identification for this pattern—culture, descent, kinship, locality and politics—and examine the importance of state influence for the subsequent development of larger categories. I propose that ethnicity in Borneo, as in most places, is fundamentally political. I discuss how this applies to both past and present forms, and relates to a distinctive significance of locality for collective identification.     

Assessing state substance abuse prevention infrastructure through the lens of CSAP's Strategic Prevention Framework

Although the organizational structures and operating procedures of state substance abuse prevention systems vary substantially across states, there is scant empirical research regarding approaches for rigorous assessment of system attributes and which attributes are most conducive to overall effectiveness. As one component of the national cross-site evaluation of the SPF State Incentive Grant Program (SPF SIG), an instrument was developed to assess state substance abuse prevention system infrastructure in order to measure infrastructure change and examine the role of state infrastructure in achieving prevention-related outcomes. In this paper we describe the development of this instrument and summarize findings from its baseline administration. As expected, states and territories were found to vary substantially with respect seven key characteristics, or domains, of state prevention infrastructure. Across the six domains that were assessed using numeric ratings, states scored highest on data systems and lowest on strategic planning. Positive intercorrelations were observed among these domains, indicating that states with high capacity on one domain generally have relatively high capacity on other domains as well. The findings also suggest that state prevention infrastructure development is linked to both funding from state government and the presence of a state interagency coordinating body with decision-making authority. The methodology and baseline findings presented will be used to inform the ongoing national cross-site evaluation of the SPF SIG and may provide useful information to guide further research on state substance abuse prevention infrastructure.     

气候变化政治对海湾国家的影响

海湾地区气候炎热,淡水资源缺乏。长期以来,海湾国家主要依靠能源出口获取大量资金,借此修建海水淡化工厂等各种设施以适应和改善气候环境的影响。近年来,国际社会在应对全球变暖问题的协调合作中,已形成一种处理全球气候变化的政治。气候变化政治要求各国减少能源消耗和降低二氧化碳排放量以缓解全球变暖趋势,从而对海湾国家以能源出口收益来维护生存环境和社会稳定的基本经济模式构成冲击。面对气候变化政治带来的冲击,海湾国家目前的权宜选择只能是继续扩大能源出口,并尽量拖延实施气候变化协议来进行应对。然而,这种做法虽可以暂时保持海湾国家改善环境的努力和维护其经济政治结构稳定,但却难以消除全球气候变化政治今后长期推动能源结构调整和节能减排所带来的压力。     

人口迁移与流动对我国各地区经济影响的实证分析

在对近十年来我国人口迁移和流动的时空演变格局进行初步考察的基础上,文章利用面板数据的变系数模型分别实证考察了人口迁移和流动对我国各地区(省域)经济的影响。结果发现:(1)我国各地区间人口迁移相对平稳,而人口流动在2000年以后呈现出持续快速增长的态势,且空间流向极不均衡;(2)人口的迁移和流动对中国整体经济来说是一个帕累托改进;(3)户籍制度对于发达地区起到了人才沙漏的作用;(4)对于中部的绝大部分地区以及西部的一些人口输出大省,伴随人口迁出而引起的人力资本流失对当地经济的负面影响开始凸显出来,人口流出虽然基本出现一个正面影响,但对本地经济发展的贡献并不如我们预想的那么明显。     

社会融合中的性别差异:流动人口工作搜寻时间的实证分析

文章以扩展传统的流动人口社会融合的静态研究视角,使用国家人口计生委2010年上半年流动人口动态监测调查数据,从男女农村流动人口工作搜寻时间的角度进一步比较农村流动人口融入流入地劳动力市场过程的性别差异及影响因素。文章采用持续时间模型,通过研究农村流动人口在流入地城市找工作所花费时间的影响因素,发现虽然在给定时间内,女性流动人口在流入地找到工作所花费的时间比男性要短,但女性找到高收入工作的概率要低于男性,而接受低收入工作的概率要大于男性,从而导致性别区隔的流动人口社会融入模式。     

水电工程移民收入测算模型构建及其应用研究

移民安置的目标已不再仅仅是按照水库蓄水的要求如期将淹没区居民和有关企、事业单位迁出库区,而且还要特别关注移民生产生活水平的恢复与提高。本文在构建水电工程移民收入测算理论模型以及第一手调查数据资料的基础上,建立符合实际经济社会发展状况的西南地区水电工程移民收入的测算模型,研究成果可以在西南地区水电工程移民收入的测算中推广。收入测算的结果也可以为移民政策的调整、改革及完善提供依据。     

城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金支付能力预测研究

随着人口老龄化进程的加剧。我国城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金收支出现了巨大缺口并呈现逐步扩大的趋势,导致基金支付能力持续下降。本文应用社会保障精算方法与技术,以社会养老保险现行政策为导向。引入2005年颁布的《国务院关于完善企业职工基本养老保险制度的决定》中新养老金计发办法的经济参数。构建城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金收入与基金支出测算模型,其中以2006年新政策实施年为时间界限。分别构建“老人”、2006年前退休的“中人”（“老中人”）、2006年后退休的“中人”（“新中人”）、“新人”四类群体的基本养老保险基金支出洲算模型。从而推导出城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金支付能力预测精算模型。以期对养老保险基金失衡风险和支竹能力危机进行及时预测。并为社会养老保险政策调整和制度完善提供量化依据。