Inside two commercially available statistical expert systems

A decade of research into the applications of artificial intelligence in statistics has finally resulted in the appearance of commercially available statistical expert systems. This paper takes a closer look at two of these systems, which are now commercially available on microcomputers, and shows what knowledge they actually contain and how they operate. It is concluded that although the technology and concepts that drive these systems could still benefit from further improvement, the real challenge lies in defining and constructing the statistical knowledge and strategy that should be incorporated and in presenting the results to the user's full advantage.     

In Memoriam: Emeritus Professor Henry Oliver Lancaster, AO FAA 1 February 1913 – 2 December 2001

The death, in Sydney, of Oliver Lancaster marks the end of an era in the histories of the Statistical Society of Australia, which (in its previous existence as the Statistical Society of New South Wales) he helped found in 1947, and of the Australian Journal of Statistics of which he was founding editor (1959–1971). Oliver Lancaster was Foundation Professor of Mathematical Statistics at the University of Sydney (1959–1978), where he spent his life as student and academic. During his academic career, he achieved scholarly distinction in at least four fields: mathematical statistics, medical and public health statistics, the history of medicine and of statistics, and statistical bibliography. With E.J.G. Pitman (1897–1993), M.H. Belz (1897–1975), E.A. Cornish (1909–1973) and P.A.P. Moran (1917–1988) he was part of a cohort of renowned Australian mathematical statisticians who laid the foundation of the glory days of Australian mathematical statistics. This obituary and tribute focuses on some of these aspects, within a broader historical picture.     

转型期中国农村区域消费水平与结构的实证分析

农村消费市场低迷是制约我国经济发展的主要因素。运用主成分聚类方法及Panel Data数据模型,结合1994—2003年的时序截面数据,对我国农村区域消费水平与结构的差异进行静态与动态分析。     

基于用户技术接受模型的政府数据开放平台研究 ——以深圳政府数据开放平台为例

从用户使用视角出发,基于用户技术接受模型,以深圳市政府数据开放平台为例,设计14个观察指标,研究政府开放数据的有用性和易用性。深圳市政府数据开放平台具有开放有序、回应及时和激励正向三大特色,同时存在创设数据场景不丰富、获取数据资源途径单一、利用成果数量少及质量不高、平台用户评价不积极及参与度低等不足。据此,提出以用户需求为导向、提升用户数字素养、构建政府部门的激励约束机制和跨部门跨层级的协同机制等政策建议。     

投资者信心和中国宏观经济波动——基于MIDAS混频模型

将投资者信心指数引入MIDAS混频模型之中,可以考察新冠疫情背景下投资者信心对于中国宏观经济波动的影响。基于投资者信心指数和“三驾马车”对我国季度GDP增长率进行预测,通过实证发现:引入投资者信心指数的MIDAS混频模型在预测精准度方面和基准模型进行比较,预测精准度高于未加入投资者信心的模型,均方根残差比值更小;在多元MIDAS混频模型之中,加入投资者信心指数的回归模型对我国GDP的实时预报和短期预测结果更加稳定,可为决策者提供更加精确的参考区间;宏观经济的波动对投资者信心指数变化反应,和投资、消费和进出口相比是最灵敏的。这为定量追踪宏观经济波动提供了一个新的视角。     

品牌延伸:资产价值转移与理论模型创建

本文通过对品牌延伸(Brand Extension)的研究综述和实证研究,提出决定品牌延伸的三大因子,并在此基础上构成品牌资产价值(Brand Asset Value),进而研究其在品牌延伸过程中的价值转移,从而构成了评估品牌延伸成败的标准,最终将各种因子和评估标准进行整合,提出了品牌延伸的理论模型。     

冲突视角下运输订单商业竞争战略研究

运用图模型理论研究冲突视角下中欧班列运营过程中运输订单商业竞争战略,构建“渝新欧”班列运营商、“苏满欧”班列运营商和昆山IT企业之间的商业竞争冲突模型。利用TOPSIS法评估班列的运输效率,确定决策者偏好,通过计算均衡解获得符合各决策者利益的理性对策。借助灵敏度分析研究决策者偏好改变对模型冲突结果的影响。研究表明:在竞争中,运输效率较低的一方可以通过降低价格弥补自身劣势而获得订单;运输效率较高的一方只有通过降价才能获得订单。该研究为班列运营商提供利益冲突中的商业竞争战略,能为顾客企业选择高效合理的运输线路提供有效的战略决策,同时亦能为宏观调控者规范市场、提高市场运输效率提供有效的政策启示。     

边疆民族地区小学教师校本培训评估

借鉴柯氏四级评估法的评价指标,运用问卷调查法和访谈法实地调研了边疆民族地区小学教师及学校管理者,从参训教师及学校管理者的不同视角对校本培训的反应层、学习层、行为层、结果层四个层级来评价培训的实施成效。评估结果显示,边疆民族地区小学教师校本培训的改进方向是确定教师培训需求、优化培训内容以及维持受训教师行为水平。     

Testing Inference in Inflated Beta Regressions under Model Misspecification

We consider testing inference in inflated beta regressions subject to model misspecification. In particular, quasi-z tests based on sandwich covariance matrix estimators are described and their finite sample behavior is investigated via Monte Carlo simulations. The numerical evidence shows that quasi-z testing inference can be considerably more accurate than inference made through the usual z tests, especially when there is model misspecification. Interval estimation is also considered. We also present an empirical application that uses real (not simulated) data.     

休谟与启蒙运动——基于《人性论》引言的思想史考察

当前对休谟的研究常把他和启蒙运动相隔裂.通过对休谟代表性著作《人性论》引言的分析,可以发现他和法国启蒙思想家共享认识世界的“力学模式”和实验方法,都试图将当时在英格兰兴起的“自然哲学”应用于人类境况,都致力于用对人类生活有用的经验研究所产生的新理论代替传统形而上学.同时,休谟对经验主义方法自身的局限有着更为健全的认识,主张在经验和可观察现象范围内的实验方法.这一认识在我们反思启蒙时极富价值.