Theoretic and empirical data-inclusive process characterization

Summary.  In process characterization the quality of information that is obtained depends directly on the quality of process model. The current quality revolution is now providing a strong stimulus for rethinking and re-evaluating many statistical ideas. Among these are the role of theoretic knowledge and data in statistical inference and some issues in theoretic–empirical modelling. With this concern the paper takes a broad, pragmatic view of statistical inference to include all aspects of model formulation. The estimation of model parameters traditionally assumes that a model has a prespecified known form and takes no account of possible uncertainty regarding model structure. But in practice model structural uncertainty is a fact of life and is likely to be more serious than other sources of uncertainty which have received far more attention. This is true whether the model is specified on subject-matter grounds or when a model is formulated, fitted and checked on the same data set in an iterative interactive way. For that reason novel modelling techniques have been fashioned for reducing model uncertainty. Using available knowledge for theoretic model elaboration the techniques that have been created approximate the exact unknown process model concurrently by accessible theoretic and polynomial empirical functions. The paper examines the effects of uncertainty for hybrid theoretic–empirical models and, for reducing uncertainty, additive and multiplicative methods of model formulation are fashioned. Such modelling techniques have been successfully applied to perfect a steady flow model for an air gauge sensor. Validation of the models elaborated has revealed that the multiplicative modelling approach allows us to attain a satisfactory model with small discrepancy from empirical evidence.     

中国传统文学观的现代余绪

中国传统文学观主要有杂文学观和纯文学观，这两种文学观在西方现代文学观的强烈冲击下，仍然得以延续。阮元的纯文学观、章太炎的杂文学观、刘师培的纯文学观与杂文学观都与传统的杂文学观和纯文学观密不可分，可谓传统文学观的现代余绪。     

转变观念推进高校思想政治理论课教学改革

在新的历史条件和背景下，高校思想政治教育工作面临着挑战和机遇。我们应进一步转变思想观念，切实推进高校思想政治理论课教学改革，不断提高其针对性、实效性和吸引力、感染力，努力使思想政治理论课成为深受学生欢迎、受益终身的重要课程。     

Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks using dynamic discretization

We consider approximate inference in hybrid Bayesian Networks (BNs) and present a new iterative algorithm that efficiently combines dynamic discretization with robust propagation algorithms on junction trees. Our approach offers a significant extension to Bayesian Network theory and practice by offering a flexible way of modeling continuous nodes in BNs conditioned on complex configurations of evidence and intermixed with discrete nodes as both parents and children of continuous nodes. Our algorithm is implemented in a commercial Bayesian Network software package, AgenaRisk, which allows model construction and testing to be carried out easily. The results from the empirical trials clearly show how our software can deal effectively with different type of hybrid models containing elements of expert judgment as well as statistical inference. In particular, we show how the rapid convergence of the algorithm towards zones of high probability density, make robust inference analysis possible even in situations where, due to the lack of information in both prior and data, robust sampling becomes unfeasible.     

论价值与正义

正义是人类社会的永恒价值追求，其主要问题是社会的基本结构，其本质目的就是利益的合理划分。文章旨在运用价值作为分析评判社会制度规约下的社会合作之利益划分正义与否的标准和依据。     

A Comparison of the Performance of Phase II Simple Linear Profile Control Charts when Parameters are Estimated

The standard deviation of the average run length (SDARL) is an important performance metric in studying the performance of control charts with estimated in-control parameters. Only a few studies in the literature, however, have considered this measure when evaluating control chart performance. The current study aims at comparing the in-control performance of three phase II simple linear profile monitoring approaches; namely, those of Kang and Albin (2000), Kim et al. (2003), and Mahmoud et al. (2010). The comparison is performed under the assumption of estimated parameters using the SDARL metric. In general, the simulation results of the current study show that the method of Kim et al. (2003) has better overall statistical performance than the competing methods in terms of SDARL values. Some of the recommended approaches based solely on the usual average run length properties can have poor SDARL performance.     

自然哲学与近代物理学之辨

亚里士多德的自然哲学著作和近代物理学都是physics,但却是两种有根本区别的研究。自然哲学是哲学的一个分支,不是近代意义上的“科学”。自然哲学较多依赖于一般的经验与观察,而近代科学更多依赖于借助仪器进行的观察和通过实验产生的事实。自然哲学的目的是理解基本事物一现象的所以然,主要通过对自然概念的梳理来理解自然现象;近代意义上的物理学则以建构技术性概念来说明自然现象。自然哲学以形而上学为原理,而物理学则最终要抛弃形而上学。要读懂自然哲学著作,读者需要有良好的思考训练,但无须任何特殊学科的技术准备和专门的数学训练。自然哲学每个体系更多地展现出某个哲学家首创的总体解释,而不在于为这一学科的知识积累作出贡献。     

Bad news indeed for Ryff’s six-factor model of well-being

Springer and Hauser (An Assessment of the Construct Validity of Ryff’s Scales of Psychological Well-Being: Method, Mode, and Measurement Effects. 2006. Social Science Research 35) tested one key aspect of the validity of Ryff’s six-factor model of psychological well-being (RPWB), namely, whether there is substantial independent variation among the six factors. In several large and heterogeneous samples, under a variety of model specifications, and using various sets of RPWB items, we found very high factor correlations among the dimensions of well-being, especially personal growth, purpose in life, self-acceptance, and environmental mastery. That is, the six-factor model makes theoretical claims that do not yield large or consistent empirical distinctions when standard measures and instrumentation are used. Where Ryff and Singer’s comment (Best News Yet on the Six-Factor Model of Well-Being. 2006. Social Science Research 35) refers directly to that analysis, their methodological discussion is most often irrelevant or incorrect. Their text largely ignores and fails to challenge our strong empirical findings about the factorial structure of well-being. In this response, we reinforce these findings and their implications for the (in)validity of the six-factor well-being model as implemented by Ryff. We also explain why Ryff and Singer’s lengthy review of studies that show differential relationships of RPWB factors with other variables should be interpreted with far greater caution than Ryff and Singer recognize. We offer recommendations for analyzing RPWB items in surveys that have already been conducted, but we also emphasize the need for a thorough rethinking of the measurement and dimensionality of psychological well-being.     

角色理论：一个亟待拓展的哲学空间

角色理论是一个丰富的哲学概念群,是个亟待拓展的哲学空间,开发角色理论的方法论功能,应当是哲学的使命。角色理论蕴含着重要的社会规范意义和丰富的方法论意义。增强人们的角色意识,有利于规范人们的社会行为,促进健康的社会氛围的培育和发展;丰富的中国特色社会主义实践,亟需用具有时代特征的历史唯物主义概念和语言来描述和解读,角色理论所倡导的一系列概念应当能够有所贡献。