An adaptive bayebsian solution to the control peoble1 for linear control systems

In this paper, a Bayesian procedure to solve the control problem in Linear Control Systems , when the precision Matrices of the obstsrvaiional and systems errors are unknown, is proposed. Prior information on those matrices is required, A numerical example illustrates the procedure applied to models Which contain bivariate observations and bivariate state vectors.     

川中丘陵区小麦品种绵阳26号的产量构成因素分析

运用相关、通径分析的方法分析了四川省小麦主推品种绵阳 2 6号的产量及其构成因素之间的关系。结果表明 ,绵阳 2 6号小麦品种千粒重的变异不大 ,穗粒数是产量构成的最重要因素 ,合理的有效穗是高产的前提。     

Forecasting the Incidence of Cancer in Regional Victoria,Australia

Loddon Mallee Integrated Cancer Service plays a key role in planning the delivery of cancer services in the Loddon Mallee Region of Victoria, Australia. Forecasting the incidence of cancer is an important part of planning for these services. This article is written from an industry perspective. We describe the context of our work, review the literature on forecasting the incidence of cancer, discuss contemporary approaches, describe our experience with forecasting models, and list issues associated with applying these models. An extensive bibliography illustrates the world-wide interest in this forecasting problem. We hope that it is useful to researchers.     

基于GEM模型的企业集群竞争力评价

针对目前中国企业集群发展中存在竞争力评价方法不完善的问题，在对企业集群特性进行研究的基础上，利用灰色关联评价法对研究企业集群竞争力评价的GEM模型进行了改进和完善，使其在评价企业集群竞争力方面弥补了以往评价过程中的主观性，使评价结果更客观和准确。     

浅析大学生自尊与心理健康的关系

大学生自尊是大学生个体在社会实践过程中获得的一种对自我积极的评价性和情感性体验。通过调查发现,自尊水平高的大学生,无论是总体水平还是具体指标上,其心理健康状况较好。自尊是心理健康的重要标志,自尊水平影响个体的社会适应。自尊对大学生心理健康有着积极的影响。因此高校心理健康教育应采取多种措施提升大学生自尊水平。     

ASYMPTOTIC EFFICIENCY OF THE BLEST‐TYPE TESTS FOR INDEPENDENCE

Blest (2000, Aust. N. Z. J. Stat. 42 , 101–111) proposed a new measure of rank correlation that is sensitive to discrepancies in the small ranks. This paper investigates the efficiency properties of non‐parametric tests for independence based on Blest's correlation coefficient and its modifications. Pitman efficiency comparisons are made with analogous tests existing in the literature. Conditions for Pitman optimality of the Blest‐type tests are established.     

进口对辽宁省经济增长贡献度的实证分析——基于时变参数卡尔曼滤波的估计

为了探寻辽宁对外经济发展的合理模式，从进口与经济增长间的关系入手，选用1985～2007年辽宁省的进口和地区生产总值数据，利用时变参数的分析方法对二者进行相关性分析，得出了进口对辽宁省的经济增长存在促进作用，而且这种作用随时递增的结论。因此，辽宁省应充分发挥进口对经济增长的积极作用，以快速实现辽宁老工业基地的振兴。     

A tutorial on adaptive MCMC

We review adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms (MCMC) as a mean to optimise their performance. Using simple toy examples we review their theoretical underpinnings, and in particular show why adaptive MCMC algorithms might fail when some fundamental properties are not satisfied. This leads to guidelines concerning the design of correct algorithms. We then review criteria and the useful framework of stochastic approximation, which allows one to systematically optimise generally used criteria, but also analyse the properties of adaptive MCMC algorithms. We then propose a series of novel adaptive algorithms which prove to be robust and reliable in practice. These algorithms are applied to artificial and high dimensional scenarios, but also to the classic mine disaster dataset inference problem.     

A response to M. Stone: 'How not to measure the efficiency of public services (and how one might)'

Summary.  This is a response to Stone's criticisms of the Spottiswoode report to the UK Treasury which was responding to the Treasury's request for improved methods to evaluate the efficiency and productivity of the 43 police districts in England and Wales. The Spottiswoode report recommended uses of data envelopment analysis (DEA) and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA), which Stone critiqued en route to proposing an alternative approach. Here we note some of the most serious errors in his criticism and inaccurate portrayals of DEA and SFA. Most of our attention is devoted to DEA, and to Stone's recommended alternative approach without much attention to SFA, partly because of his abbreviated discussion of the latter. In our response we attempt to be constructive as well as critical by showing how Stone's proposed approach can be joined to DEA to expand his proposal beyond limitations in his formulations.     

Nonconglomerative coherent conditional probabilities in statistical inference

Noteworthy connections among conglomerability, countable additivity and coherence are discussed in detail, reaching the conclusion that nonconglomerable conditional probabilities must not be doomed and play a significant role in statistical inference. Extended and updated version of a contributed paper presented at the International Conference on “Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in knowledge-based systems”, IPMU 2004, Perugia, Italy.