A robust ranking method extending ELECTRE III to hierarchy of interacting criteria,imprecise weights and stochastic analysis

A great majority of methods designed for Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding (MCDA) assume that all assessment criteria are considered at the same level, however, decision problems encountered in practice often impose a hierarchical structure of criteria. The hierarchy helps to decompose complex decision problems into smaller and manageable subtasks, and thus, it is very attractive for computational efficiency and explanatory purposes. To handle the hierarchy of criteria in MCDA, a methodology called Multiple Criteria Hierarchy Process (MCHP), has been recently proposed. MCHP permits to consider preference relations with respect to a subset of criteria at any level of the hierarchy. Here, we propose to apply MCHP to the ELECTRE III ranking method adapted to handle three types of interaction effects between criteria: mutual-weakening, mutual-strengthening and antagonistic effect. We also involve in MCHP an imprecise elicitation of criteria weights, generalizing a technique called the SRF method. In order to explore the plurality of rankings obtained by the ELECTRE III method for possible sets of criteria weights, we apply the Stochastic Multiobjective Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) that permits to draw robust conclusions in terms of rankings and preference relations at each level of the hierarchy of criteria. The novelty of the whole methodology consists of a joint consideration of hierarchical assessments of alternatives performances on interacting criteria, imprecise criteria weights, and robust analysis of ranking recommendations resulting from ELECTRE III. An example regarding the multiple criteria ranking of some European universities will show how to apply the proposed methodology on a decision problem.     

Is prenatal sex selection associated with lower female child mortality?

I examine whether prenatal sex selection has substituted postnatal excess female mortality by analysing the dynamics of child sex ratios between 1980 and 2015 using country-level life table data. I decompose changes in child sex ratios into a ‘fertility’ component attributable to prenatal sex selection and a ‘mortality’ component attributable to sex differentials in postnatal survival. Although reductions in numbers of excess female deaths have accompanied increases in missing female births in all countries experiencing the emergence of prenatal sex selection, relative excess female mortality has persisted in some countries but not others. In South Korea, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, mortality reductions favouring girls accompanied increases in prenatal sex selection. In India, excess female mortality was much higher and largely stable as prenatal sex selection emerged, but slight reductions were seen in the 2000s. In China, although absolute measures showed reductions, relative excess female mortality persisted as prenatal sex selection increased.     

企业技术效率的影响分析

 本文以上海市166家大中型企业五年的面板数据为研究对象,设定两种不同的生产函数和两种误差分布,利用随机前沿方法分别进行了技术效率的估计。我们发现不同测算方法的结果差异不大,且对企业的评价具有一致性。结果表明上海市工业企业的技术效率整体水平不高。通过研究影响企业技术效率的外生性因素,发现企业的所有制结构、规模、R&D经费支出与R&D人员投入、资本密集程度和企业的垄断程度等因素都对上海市工业企业的技术效率水平具有显著影响。基于研究结果,我们给出了提高企业技术效率的一些建议。     

中国能源消耗减物质化分析

1980-2004年中国能源消耗(生活消耗除外)出现了较大波动,本文运用完全分解模型研究了能源消耗的减物质化过程。结果表明,1980-2004年累计节能量为80790万吨标准煤,同时受国家宏观调控政策的影响,1980-2001年中国能源消耗减物质化处于波动之中,节能缺口幅度大致在1.0之内频繁波动(绝对值),2001年以后中国能源消耗减物质化出现了剧变,节能缺口急剧下降,实际节能率远远低于潜在节能率,能源供应出现了紧张局面。     

Dominance and Efficiency in Multicriteria Decision under Uncertainty

This paper proposes several concepts of efficient solutions for multicriteria decision problems under uncertainty. We show how alternative notions of efficiency may be grounded on different decision contexts, depending on what is known about the Decision Maker's (DM) preference structure and probabilistic anticipations. We define efficient sets arising naturally from polar decision contexts. We investigate these sets from the points of view of their relative inclusions and point out some particular subsets which may be especially relevant to some decision situations.     

酒精在人体血液中含量及分解时间的数学模型

本文以一类关于药物例如酒精在人体内的分解速度问题,建立数学模型并给出了求解过程和结果,依此模型解决了酒精在人体内的分解时间问题。此模型可以推广到药物在人体内的分解时间和含量问题。     

噪声背景下提取调制信息的改进奇异值分解技术

在介绍现有奇异值分离技术基本原理及其在故障诊断中的应用的基础上，研究了利用信号时间序列重构的吸引子轨迹矩阵奇异值分布特征与信号特征的关系，引入自相关函数定量计算重构矩阵的延时步长，改进了现有算法，使得吸引子轨迹矩阵的重构更加合理。研究表明该方法能在强噪声背景下提取出所需的调制信号，并成功用于齿轮箱调制故障信号的提取。     

Income Satisfaction Inequality and its Causes

In this paper, the concept of Income Satisfaction Inequality is operationalized on the basis of individual responses to an Income Satisfaction question posed in the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). Income satisfaction is the subjective analogue of the objective income concept. The paper introduces a method to decompose Income Satisfaction Inequality according to the contributions from variables such as income, education, and the number of children. Given the panel structure of the data, inequality may be attributed partly to permanent individual circumstances and partly to transitory changes. The paper shows that by far the largest part of the satisfaction inequality has to be ascribed to unobserved heterogeneity. Distinguishing between a structural and an unexplained part of inequality we find that income explains the largest part of structural Income Satisfaction Inequality together with household membership; for non-working individuals, the age distribution is very relevant as well.     

Inequality measurement and the time structure of household income in Israel

The aim of this paper is to empirically evaluate the effect of the length of the accounting period on indices of inequality of household income in Israel. There are three main findings: (1) The analysis of the impact of the accounting period on the Gini index of inequality can be done in a way which is identical to analyzing the effect of the accounting period on the coefficient of variation; (2) changing the accounting period from one to three months decreases, on average, the Gini index of inequality by about 1.7%. Furthermore, the Gini index calculated from a three-month accounting period was 3.9%–4.1% higher than the index based on a 12-month period. The change in the accounting period from 12 months to three months accounts for 27% to 37% of the increase in inequality in the last two decades, depending on the type of income considered. (3) The above relationship is stable over the years but is sensitive to the definition of income.     

A cohort analysis of female labor participation rates in the U.S. and Japan

Aggregate data of female labor participation rates in U.S. and Japan, classified by period and by age, are decomposed into age, period, and cohort effects using innovative Bayesian cohort models that were developed to overcome the identification problem in cohort analysis. The main findings are that in both countries, age effects are the largest and period effects are the smallest; in both countries, age effects are roughly consistent with life-cycle movements expected by labor economics, but the negative effects of marriage and/or childbearing on women?’s labor supply in Japan are much larger than those observed in the U.S.; and in both countries, upward movements of cohort effects during 1930s–1960s were found. However, cohort effects are larger for the U.S. than for Japan. All the cohort results are roughly consistent with the marriage squeeze hypothesis and the Easterlin hypothesis.