A robust ranking method extending ELECTRE III to hierarchy of interacting criteria,imprecise weights and stochastic analysis

A great majority of methods designed for Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding (MCDA) assume that all assessment criteria are considered at the same level, however, decision problems encountered in practice often impose a hierarchical structure of criteria. The hierarchy helps to decompose complex decision problems into smaller and manageable subtasks, and thus, it is very attractive for computational efficiency and explanatory purposes. To handle the hierarchy of criteria in MCDA, a methodology called Multiple Criteria Hierarchy Process (MCHP), has been recently proposed. MCHP permits to consider preference relations with respect to a subset of criteria at any level of the hierarchy. Here, we propose to apply MCHP to the ELECTRE III ranking method adapted to handle three types of interaction effects between criteria: mutual-weakening, mutual-strengthening and antagonistic effect. We also involve in MCHP an imprecise elicitation of criteria weights, generalizing a technique called the SRF method. In order to explore the plurality of rankings obtained by the ELECTRE III method for possible sets of criteria weights, we apply the Stochastic Multiobjective Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) that permits to draw robust conclusions in terms of rankings and preference relations at each level of the hierarchy of criteria. The novelty of the whole methodology consists of a joint consideration of hierarchical assessments of alternatives performances on interacting criteria, imprecise criteria weights, and robust analysis of ranking recommendations resulting from ELECTRE III. An example regarding the multiple criteria ranking of some European universities will show how to apply the proposed methodology on a decision problem.     

论中国扩大消费需求的供给侧支撑

以消费供给来促进消费需求的上扬有着深厚的理论与实践基础,仅从需求侧探求消费需求的增长无法对现实问题给出全面解释,秉承需求侧与供给侧对接的理念才能共同拉动经济进步,从根本上推动消费需求的上涨。中国目前的消费供给面临着有效供给的不足,主要体现在高质量供给不足、高端消费供给不足、个性化消费供给不足三个方面。要提振中国消费需求,需要重视供给侧的重要作用,从提升产品质量、提高消费层次、增加个性化供给等方面进行努力。     

Stochastic Bounds with a Low Rank Decomposition

We investigate how we can bound a discrete time Markov chain (DTMC) by a stochastic matrix with a low rank decomposition. In the first part of the article, we show the links with previous results for matrices with a decomposition of size 1 or 2. Then we show how the complexity of the analysis for steady-state and transient distributions can be simplified when we take into account the decomposition. Finally, we show how we can obtain a monotone stochastic upper bound with a low rank decomposition.     

基于城市特征分析模型的智慧城市建设需求分析——以新乡市为例

如何在智慧城市建设过程中确定建设需求一直是智慧城市建设的重点与难点,本文通过构建城市特征分析模型,提出从城市特征出发进行比较分析确定智慧城市建设需求的方法。在完成城市特征分析模型的构建后,本文运用这一模型对新乡市智慧城市建设需求进行了分析并给出了相应的解决方案,展现了这一模型的使用方法。     

河北省生源地助学贷款需求、供给与还款分析——以河北农业大学为例

：生源地助学贷款具有承贷主体多元化、放款形式多样化、贷款管理属地化等优势，作为国家助学贷款的有益补充具有广阔的发展前景。根据对河北农业大学生源地助学贷款在校生和毕业生的问卷调查和数据分析，在需求和供给方面存在着供给量不足、供给形式单一等问题；在还款方面，存在着还款期限短、违约率较高等问题。针对上述问题，应通过加大政策扶持力度、建立风险基金和信用体系等措施来解决，以促进河北省生源地助学贷款的健康发展。     

Weighted Stochastic Restricted Estimation in Linear Measurement Error Models

This article discusses the consistent estimation of the parameters in a linear measurement error model when stochastic linear restrictions on regression coefficients are available. We propose some methodologies to obtain the consistent estimation when either the covariance matrix of the measurement errors or the reliability matrix of independent variables is known. Their finite- and large-sample properties are derived with not necessarily normal errors. A Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to study the the finite properties of the estimators.     

LOG-PERIODOGRAM ESTIMATION OF LONG MEMORY VOLATILITY DEPENDENCIES WITH CONDITIONALLY HEAVY TAILED RETURNS

ABSTRACT

Many recent papers have used semiparametric methods, especially the log-periodogram regression, to detect and estimate long memory in the volatility of asset returns. In these papers, the volatility is proxied by measures such as squared, log-squared, and absolute returns. While the evidence for the existence of long memory is strong using any of these measures, the actual long memory parameter estimates can be sensitive to which measure is used. In Monte-Carlo simulations, I find that if the data is conditionally leptokurtic, the log-periodogram regression estimator using squared returns has a large downward bias, which is avoided by using other volatility measures. In United States stock return data, I find that squared returns give much lower estimates of the long memory parameter than the alternative volatility measures, which is consistent with the simulation results. I conclude that researchers should avoid using the squared returns in the semiparametric estimation of long memory volatility dependencies.     

The elasticity of labor demand and the minimum wage

We show that, contrary to widespread belief, low-pay workers do not generally prefer that the minimum wage rate be increased until the labor demand is unitary elastic. Rather, there exists a critical value of elasticity of labor demand so that increases in the minimum wage rate make low-pay workers better off for higher elasticities, but worse off for lower elasticities. This critical value decreases with unemployment benefits and increases with workers’ risk aversion. We also show that in some countries the benefits for long-term unemployed are so low that workers would probably prefer that the minimum wage rate be decreased. I thank the anonymous referees for helpful suggestions.     

A Framework for Time Varying Parameter Regression Modeling

A framework for time varying parameter regression models is developed and employed in modeling and forecasting price expectations, using the Livingston data. Alternative model formulations, which include various choices for both the stochastic processes generating the varying parameters and the sets of explanatory variables, are examined and compared by using this framework. These models, some of which have appeared elsewhere and some of which are new, are estimated and used to assess the expectations formation process.     

铁路货运站营销分析系统的规划与设计

基于对铁路货运站市场营销策略的分析,采用结构化设计和PowerBuilder 6.5程序设计的方法,对铁路货运站营销分析系统进行了规划与设计.该系统是在进行货运市场份额调查的基础上,建立货主信息库,通过实施客户经理制,对货运市场进行需求分析.为计算机辅助铁路市场营销决策的研究开拓了新的天地.