企业短视行为对知识失业的影响——基于北京市用人市场的调查分析

本文从市场经济的角度探求知识失业的深层次原因,通过对北京市用人市场进行问卷调查分析,发现市场经济条件下企业的短视行为是导致知识失业的重要原因之一,并提出意见和建议。     

劳动力缺失背景下新型农村养老保险需求及其影响因素研究

新型农村养老保险试点工作的全面开展、制度优化完善必须充分考虑农村现实状况和农民实际需求,本文以劳动力缺失、老龄化加剧、家庭养老功能弱化为背景,对陕西省西安市10个涉农区县开展实地调查,通过问卷设计与数据收集,获取1156个有效样本,综合运用描述性统计、相关分析和二分类、多分类逻辑回归分析方法,从参保意愿和支付能力的二维视角实证研究新型农村养老保险需求及其影响因素,结果表明：养老风险意识、新农保政策了解程度、新农保政策效果和缴费原则认可程度、耕地面积、期望养老金额是新农保参保意愿的显著影响因素,而表征经济状况的农民家庭年总收入、年基本支出与新农保支付能力之间具有显著的因果关系。     

产业结构调整背景下河北省高等院校人才培养与产业需求对接拟合研究

高校人才培养对河北省产业结构进行供给侧结构性调整至关重要。将高校人才培养结构与产业需求结构对接起来,以实现培养的人才满足人才市场的结构需求。文章对河北省人才培养和产业需求拟合及偏离情况进行基本分析,结果显示：七大产业毕业生人才供不应求、三大部门高校毕业生人才供过于求、卫生部门和农业部门人才供求基本拟合对接。并提出了河北省优化调整高校专业结构的路径选择。     

物流专业英语的学习需求分析及启示

需求分析是一种评估研究范畴,可以为改进物流专业英语教学提供依据。本研究中需求分析的抽样调查结果显示,物流专业英语教学中学习者非常关注和强调专业英语的实用性和应用性,而这恰恰是当前物流专业英语教学的"短板"。由此得出改进"语言输入"、重视"语言输出"、优化"评估手段"等改进物流专业英语教学的思路和启示。     

通过深化体制改革建立扩大内需的长效机制

我国内需不足的根本原因是深层次的体制问题,具体表现在不合理的收入分配体制,政府公共服务支出占政府总支出的比重较低,国有企业借助行政垄断地位挤压中小企业的生存空间．也增加了居民的生活成本,城乡一体化改革进展缓慢。必须通过深化经济体制改革,加快推进收入分配体制改革,加快公共财政体制建设,逐步完善基本公共服务体系,鼓励扩大民间投资,深化国有企业体制改革,加快推进城乡一体化改革。     

社会主义荣辱观教育对青年教育的诉求

荣辱观是中国道德体系的核心和基础.在社会转型期,随着青年社会作用和地位的凸显,他们既需要社会主义荣辱观的引导,又对荣辱观深入人心起着积极的示范效应;青年教育通过时积极价值观的选择,对消极价值观的遏制及其灵活多变的途径应成为有效进行荣辱观教育的必然诉求.     

USING AN UNCERTAINTY MODEL TO ASSESS SALES RESPONSE TO ADVERTISING*

Implications of a probabilistic “random walk” model of incremental sales response to advertising are developed for various timing patterns of advertising expenditures. Maximum likelihood procedures for assessing advertising effectiveness and for estimating a decay (forgetting) rate are developed and applied to artificial data of known configuration and are used to assess the impact over time of a brochure program on mail-order sales. Results are also compared to those from alternative models involving various lag patterns in advertising effects.     

国家能力、出口复杂度与经济增长波动 ——来自178个国家面板数据的经验证据

作为生产产品所需要的不可交易的投入品集合,国家能力的增加不但有利于经济产出的增长,而且能够增强经济体系中供给和需求的稳定性,进而有利于降低经济产出的波动性;出口复杂度的高低可以反映一国能力的多少,因而出口复杂度的提高可以降低供给波动、需求波动和产出波动.对1998—2017年178个样本国家的分析发现:出口复杂度的提高...     

An oracle-based algorithm for robust planning of production routing problems in closed-loop supply chains of beverage glass bottles

The demand for glass bottles is exhibiting an upward trend over time. The manufacturing of glass bottles is costlier in terms of time and resources and is associated with a higher level of heat generation and environmental pollution compared to recycling processes. In response to the aforementioned challenges, companies that use glass bottles need to implement strategies to manage their reverse supply chains in conjunction with their traditional supply chains, as the economic and environmental benefits of returned products are unquestionable. Closed-loop supply chains (CLSCs) integrate forward and reverse flows of products and information. This integration helps companies to have a broader view of the whole chain. Despite these advantages, managing CLSCs can be challenging as they are exposed to many uncertainties regarding supply and demand processes, travel times, and quantity/quality of returned products.In this study, we consider the production planning, inventory management, and vehicle routing decisions of a CLSC of beverage glass bottles. We propose an MILP model and rely on a multi-stage adjustable robust optimization (ARO) formulation to deal with the randomness in both the demand for filled bottles and the requests for pickups of empty bottles. We develop an exact oracle-based algorithm to solve the ARO problem and propose a heuristic search algorithm to reduce the solution time. Our numerical experiments not only show the incompetency of the customary method, namely the affine decision rule approach, but also illustrate how our algorithms can solve the small-size problems and significantly improve the quality of the obtained solution for large problems. Furthermore, our numerical results show that robust plans tend to be sparse, meaning the routes are chosen so that empty bottles are transported to production sites in such a way that fewer new bottles need to be ordered. Thus, robust planning makes the CLSCs more environmentally friendly.     

The Role of Behavioral Responses in the Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Air Travel Targets

U.S. airports and airliners are prime terrorist targets. Not only do the facilities and equipment represent high‐value assets, but the fear and dread that is spread by such attacks can have tremendous effects on the U.S. economy. This article presents the methodology, data, and estimates of the macroeconomic impacts stemming from behavioral responses to a simulated terrorist attack on a U.S. airport and on a domestic airliner. The analysis is based on risk‐perception surveys of these two scenarios. The responses relate to reduced demand for airline travel, shifts to other modes, spending on nontravel items, and savings of potential travel expenditures by U.S. resident passengers considering flying domestic routes. We translate these responses to individual spending categories and feed these direct impact results into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy to ascertain the indirect and total impacts on both the airline industry and the economy as a whole. Overall, the estimated impacts on GDP of both types of attacks exceed $10B. We find that the behavioral economic impacts are almost an order of magnitude higher than the ordinary business interruption impacts for the airliner attack and nearly two orders of magnitude higher for the airport attack. The results are robust to sensitivity tests on the travel behavior of U.S. residents in response to terrorism.