A response to M. Stone: 'How not to measure the efficiency of public services (and how one might)'

Summary.  This is a response to Stone's criticisms of the Spottiswoode report to the UK Treasury which was responding to the Treasury's request for improved methods to evaluate the efficiency and productivity of the 43 police districts in England and Wales. The Spottiswoode report recommended uses of data envelopment analysis (DEA) and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA), which Stone critiqued en route to proposing an alternative approach. Here we note some of the most serious errors in his criticism and inaccurate portrayals of DEA and SFA. Most of our attention is devoted to DEA, and to Stone's recommended alternative approach without much attention to SFA, partly because of his abbreviated discussion of the latter. In our response we attempt to be constructive as well as critical by showing how Stone's proposed approach can be joined to DEA to expand his proposal beyond limitations in his formulations.     

有效供给：义务教育发展的新走向

在我国基本普及义务教育之后，扩大有效供给应成为义务教育发展的新目标。义务教育有效供给具备数量充足、质量均衡、促进公平和提高效率等四个主要特征。义务教育有效供给理论的提出，对促进我国义务教育均衡发展具有积极意义；有效供给的形成依赖于政府的科学规划策略、综合利用多种教育资源以及增强社会各界对教育发展的监督。     

公共需求的传递和满足机制研究

政府职能的实现过程就是政府满足公共需求的过程。在公共需求的传递和满足过程中,公共需求由公众传递给其在议会的代理人——议员,再传递给政府,最后由政府以提供公共产品的形式予以满足。但在这一过程中,由于公众、议员(议会)、政府(官僚)所拥有的利益目标不完全相同,而各方都寻求其自身利益的最大化,在这种多重委托——代理关系下,造成公共需求在传递和满足过程中受到扭曲。其中,同质性公共需求与异质性公共需求在传递和满足过程中所受扭曲程度及影响因素各有不同。     

Nonconglomerative coherent conditional probabilities in statistical inference

Noteworthy connections among conglomerability, countable additivity and coherence are discussed in detail, reaching the conclusion that nonconglomerable conditional probabilities must not be doomed and play a significant role in statistical inference. Extended and updated version of a contributed paper presented at the International Conference on “Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in knowledge-based systems”, IPMU 2004, Perugia, Italy.     

现代教育技术条件下的教师角色定位与技能需求

针对现代多媒体技术环境,提出教师的角色应由传统的知识传授者与灌输者转变为学生学习的促进者、课程研发者、学生的学术顾问等角色上来。同时,对现代教育技术条件下教师应掌握的职业技能与能力结构进行了简要描述。     

从农民的视角看中国农业科技的供求、 传播与应用状况

作者采用面向农户户主进行问卷调查的方法,从最基层的农民的视角反映中国农业科学技术在农村的供求、传播与应用状况;认为中国农户的经营规模小、农业的比较利益低、农业科技研究滞后、农业推广体系不完备、是制约农业科学技术在中国农村传播与广泛应用的根本障碍;文章提出了适当扩大经营规模、减轻农民负担、加强农业科技研究、健全和规范农业推广体制以及提高农民的科技文化素质等对策。     

我国商业健康险供需状况问题分析及对策

商业健康保险是我国医疗保障体系的重要组成部分,但在我国还处于发展的初级阶段,供需存在矛盾。一方面我国健康险市场空间很大,另一方面保险业并不能提供合适的产品。本文通过对我国健康险需求状况分析,提出解决供需问题的对策。     

Newsvendor Problems with Demand Shocks and Unknown Demand Distributions

In today's competitive market, demand volume and even the underlying demand distribution can change quickly for a newsvendor seller. We refer to sudden changes in demand distribution as demand shocks. When a newsvendor seller has limited demand distribution information and also experiences underlying demand shocks, the majority of existing methods for newsvendor problems may not work well since they either require demand distribution information or assume stationary demand distribution. We present a new, robust, and effective machine learning algorithm for newsvendor problems with demand shocks but without any demand distribution information. The algorithm needs only an approximate estimate of the lower and upper bounds of demand range; no other knowledge such as demand mean, variance, or distribution type is necessary. We establish the theoretical bounds that determine this machine learning algorithm's performance in handling demand shocks. Computational experiments show that this algorithm outperforms the traditional approaches in a variety of situations including large and frequent shocks of the demand mean. The method can also be used as a meta‐algorithm by incorporating other traditional approaches as experts. Working together, the original algorithm and the extended meta‐algorithm can help manufacturers and retailers better adapt their production and inventory control decisions in dynamic environments where demand information is limited and demand shocks are frequent      

老年人社会服务需求、供给及利用情况分析--以北京市西城区为例

利用2013年北京市西城区老年人社会服务调研数据,对当前西城区老年人社会服务的供给、需求和利用情况进行分析,结果显示：西城区社会养老服务面临的最主要问题是服务的需求率、供给率与使用率之间严重不平衡,即高需求率、低供给率和低使用率之间的矛盾。一方面老年人的需要得不到满足,另一方面又造成社会资源的闲置和浪费,无法实现物尽其用。总结起来说就是“一高二低”,一高,即目前西城区社会养老服务需求量高;二低,即服务供给率低、利用率低。造成这种局面的原因可总结为“七缺少”,即缺少资金、场地、人员、专业性、个性化、便利性和知晓度。社会养老服务的供给量应与需求量相适应,加大为老服务的资金支持力度,引进专业技术人才,拓展服务种类和范围,加大宣传力度等,以适应养老模式的转变、满足人民群众的养老服务需求。     

农户金融需求行为及其影响因素的实证研究

随着改革开放的发展和农民生活水平的提高,农户对金融的需求愈加强烈。基于沈阳周边农户的300份调查问卷,运用世代交叠模型模拟农户经济行为,建立二元Logit模型,对影响沈阳农户金融需求效用的因素进行实证分析。指出农户的家庭收入、经营状况、固定资产、土地、贷款金额和城镇经济状况等因素都对农户金融需求效用存在显著影响,并提出了促进沈阳周边农村金融发展的政策建议,旨为沈阳地区农村经济发展提供借鉴。