带有马尔可夫调制和跳的随机微分延迟方程Euler方法的强相合性

本文主要研究了下列形式的随机微分延迟方程：dX（t） =f（X（t） ,X（t -τ（t） ） ,r（t） ）dt ＋g（X（t） ,X（t -τ（t） ） ,r（t） ）dW（t） ＋h（X（t） ,X（t -τ（t） ）, r（t） ）dN（t） 0≤t≤T.考虑了时间延迟．r（t）为变量，Euler方法数值解；给出并且证明了Euler方法的强相合性定理，即Euler方法数值解均方意义下局部收敛于精确解．     

高等学校环境类专业实践环节教学现状调查及教学改革思考

在对国内外部分高等学校环境类专业实践环节教学现状调查的基础上 ,分析了环境类专业实践环节教学特色及存在的问题 ,并在此基础上提出了我国高等学校环境类专业实践环节教学改革的基本思路     

新时期社会转型的中国经验——新时期社会转型与和谐社会构建问题战略层面上的比较价值

中国新时期社会转型与和谐社会构建问题,是中国经济社会发展进程中提出和探索的具有全局性、战略性的双重命题,是对我国现代社会发展规律的基本认识,也是对中国改革与发展进程的一种新的理解.这双重命题必须同时上升为执政党和政府的时代性理念,必须置于中国特色社会主义这一"核心主题"的主流分析框架之下;必须从同等程度意义上,上升为执政党和政府的战略性决策层面;改革开放30年的今天,迫切需要分析中国特色社会主义的现代社会转型与和谐社会构建的内在联系;必须从真理性与价值性之统一的角度解析中国特色的现代社会转型与和谐社会构建问题双重命题的同等程度范畴的现实价值.     

USING CONJOINT ANALYSIS TO PREDICT TRIAL AND REPEAT-PURCHASE PATTERNS OF NEW FREQUENTLY PURCHASED PRODUCTS*

A new approach is proposed to evaluate new-product opportunities. This approach uses the distribution of brand-purchase probability of the new product over a population of potential customers and the outputs from conjoint analysis. The heterogeneous distribution of brand-purchase probability is expressed by a beta binomial brand-choice model compounded with a negative binomial product-class purchase-incidence model. The resulting model provides a way to predict trial and repeat-purchase patterns of new-product concepts. The paper discusses the development of the model. It also discusses issues of measurement, estimation, testing, and implementation of the proposed approach based on actual empirical data.     

词汇复现的跨句衔接功能和翻译

以澳大利亚女作家科林.麦卡洛的著名畅销小说《荆棘鸟》的片段及其译文为例,阐述词汇复现的跨句衔接功能,并对译文在此方面出现的错误进行分析和修正。     

A new family of multivariate slash distributions

In this article, a new form of multivariate slash distribution is introduced and some statistical properties are derived. In order to illustrate the advantage of this distribution over the existing generalized multivariate slash distribution in the literature, it is applied to a real data set.     

A shelf-space optimization model when demand is stochastic and space-elastic

The more customer demand is impulse-driven, the more it is space-dependent and the more it is subject to variation. We investigate the corresponding problem of retail shelf-space planning when demand is stochastic and sensitive to the number and position of facings. We develop a model to maximize a retailer׳s profit by selecting the number of facings and their shelf position under the assumption of limited space. The model is particularly applicable to promotional or temporary products.We develop the first optimization model and solution approach that takes stochastic demand into account, since the current literature applies deterministic models for shelf-space planning. By the means of an innovative modeling approach for the case with space- and positioning effects and the conversion of our problem into a mixed-integer problem, we obtain optimal results within very short run times for large-scale instances relevant in practice. Furthermore, we develop a solution approach to account for cross-space elasticity, and solve it using an own heuristic, which efficiently yields near-optimal results. We demonstrate that correctly considering space elasticity and demand variation is essential. The corresponding impacts on profits and solution structures become even more significant when space elasticity and stochastic demand interact, resulting in up to 5% higher profits and up to 80% differences in solution structures, if both effects are correctly accounted for. We develop an efficient modeling approach, compare the model results with approaches applied in practice and derive rules-of-thumb for planners.     

Disaster response on September 11, 2001 through the lens of statistical network analysis

The rescue and relief operations triggered by the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center in New York City demanded collaboration among hundreds of organisations. To shed light on the response to the September 11, 2001 attacks and help to plan and prepare the response to future disasters, we study the inter-organisational network that emerged in response to the attacks. Studying the inter-organisational network can help to shed light on (1) whether some organisations dominated the inter-organisational network and facilitated communication and coordination of the disaster response; (2) whether the dominating organisations were supposed to coordinate disaster response or emerged as coordinators in the wake of the disaster; and (3) the degree of network redundancy and sensitivity of the inter-organisational network to disturbances following the initial disaster. We introduce a Bayesian framework which can answer the substantive questions of interest while being as simple and parsimonious as possible. The framework allows organisations to have varying propensities to collaborate, while taking covariates into account, and allows to assess whether the inter-organisational network had network redundancy—in the form of transitivity—by using a test which may be regarded as a Bayesian score test. We discuss implications in terms of disaster management.     

专业知识教学环节改革的探索与实践

结合教学改革实践,论述了在专业知识传授过程中,不但要注重专业知识的系统性和完整性,更要注重提高学生专业方面的综合素质,并提出了在专业知识传授环节中增加综合训练周提高毕业生专业方面综合素质的改革途径。     

USING AN UNCERTAINTY MODEL TO ASSESS SALES RESPONSE TO ADVERTISING*

Implications of a probabilistic “random walk” model of incremental sales response to advertising are developed for various timing patterns of advertising expenditures. Maximum likelihood procedures for assessing advertising effectiveness and for estimating a decay (forgetting) rate are developed and applied to artificial data of known configuration and are used to assess the impact over time of a brochure program on mail-order sales. Results are also compared to those from alternative models involving various lag patterns in advertising effects.