Robust portfolio planning in the presence of market anomalies

In this study, a short-term portfolio modeling formulation is developed using existing anomalies as a single determinant for daily Istanbul Stock Exchange National 100 Composite Index (ISE) and US dollars (USD) returns in a Robust optimization (RO) framework. Using anomalies in planning within an RO framework establishes a balance between risk seeking and risk averse behaviors, as generating profit from anomalies is risky and RO enables to settle down the extreme risk seeking behavior. Applications of the model using various data sets result in real profit generation such that terminal wealth figures increase considerably more than Wholesale Price Index (WPI). This study demonstrates that RO is a viable approach to make use of anomaly information for short-term profits.     

人事信息系统的基本环节

人事信息系统的主体框架有 6个基本环节 ,即人事信息的收集、加工、贮存、传输、反馈和利用 ,每一环节都有具体的目标要求。充分发挥人事信息系统的整体功能 ,能够强化人事管理的综合效能。     

Inferences from Cross-Sectional,Stochastic Frontier Models

Conventional approaches for inference about efficiency in parametric stochastic frontier (PSF) models are based on percentiles of the estimated distribution of the one-sided error term, conditional on the composite error. When used as prediction intervals, coverage is poor when the signal-to-noise ratio is low, but improves slowly as sample size increases. We show that prediction intervals estimated by bagging yield much better coverages than the conventional approach, even with low signal-to-noise ratios. We also present a bootstrap method that gives confidence interval estimates for (conditional) expectations of efficiency, and which have good coverage properties that improve with sample size. In addition, researchers who estimate PSF models typically reject models, samples, or both when residuals have skewness in the “wrong” direction, i.e., in a direction that would seem to indicate absence of inefficiency. We show that correctly specified models can generate samples with “wrongly” skewed residuals, even when the variance of the inefficiency process is nonzero. Both our bagging and bootstrap methods provide useful information about inefficiency and model parameters irrespective of whether residuals have skewness in the desired direction.     

An adaptive bayebsian solution to the control peoble1 for linear control systems

In this paper, a Bayesian procedure to solve the control problem in Linear Control Systems , when the precision Matrices of the obstsrvaiional and systems errors are unknown, is proposed. Prior information on those matrices is required, A numerical example illustrates the procedure applied to models Which contain bivariate observations and bivariate state vectors.     

论唐太宗与大臣之间的语言信息沟通

我国历史上的君主纳谏和大臣向君主进谏 ,大体上符合现代语言信息沟通活动的基本特征。即以语言 (或书面奏疏 )作为媒介载体 ,在君臣之间传递信息 ,使得君臣增进相互了解 ,并协调行动 ,最终达到政令上下的畅通和治理国家的目标。唐太宗是我国古代一位以善于纳谏从谏而闻名于世的开明君主 ,他对语言信息沟通运用的艺术表现在 :(一 )建立全方位的语言信息沟通 ,(二 )清除语言信息沟通的障碍 ,(三 )加强语言信息沟通的制度性措施。     

Forecasting the Incidence of Cancer in Regional Victoria,Australia

Loddon Mallee Integrated Cancer Service plays a key role in planning the delivery of cancer services in the Loddon Mallee Region of Victoria, Australia. Forecasting the incidence of cancer is an important part of planning for these services. This article is written from an industry perspective. We describe the context of our work, review the literature on forecasting the incidence of cancer, discuss contemporary approaches, describe our experience with forecasting models, and list issues associated with applying these models. An extensive bibliography illustrates the world-wide interest in this forecasting problem. We hope that it is useful to researchers.     

大力发展快速阅读的文化事业和文化产业

论文认为阅读有“精读、略读、快读”三种，突破了“读法二分观”的局限，确立了“读法三分观”的理论体系。探讨快读与精读、略读的区别和链接方法。认为我国要大力发展快速阅读的文化事业和文化产业，因为，快读是知识经济时代的先进精神生产力之一。     

主体性思想政治教育:人的全面发展的本质要求

人的全面发展的实质是人的素质的提高,本质特征是人的主体性的全面发展.主体性思想政治教育是关注人的主体性和人的思想素质发展的教育理念和教育方法.它与人的全面发展理论有着内在的、本质的联系.     

低轨卫星移动通信系统馈电链路切换方案

研究了无星际链路低轨卫星移动通信系统中的馈电链路的切换问题,提出了两种馈电切换方案-最短馈电链路切换方案和最长可视时间切换方案。结合两种已有的用户链路切换准则,在构造的非均匀分布全国话务密度模型上进行了系统仿真。仿真结果表明馈电链路切换方案对系统开销影响较大,选择最长可视时间馈电链路切换方案,可以减少切换带来的信令开销,提高服务质量,具有较高的参考和实用价值。     

A tutorial on adaptive MCMC

We review adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms (MCMC) as a mean to optimise their performance. Using simple toy examples we review their theoretical underpinnings, and in particular show why adaptive MCMC algorithms might fail when some fundamental properties are not satisfied. This leads to guidelines concerning the design of correct algorithms. We then review criteria and the useful framework of stochastic approximation, which allows one to systematically optimise generally used criteria, but also analyse the properties of adaptive MCMC algorithms. We then propose a series of novel adaptive algorithms which prove to be robust and reliable in practice. These algorithms are applied to artificial and high dimensional scenarios, but also to the classic mine disaster dataset inference problem.