战略哲学论略

战略哲学即战略之道,战略的基本矛盾是自由和限制的矛盾,战略是竞争自由的方式,21世纪主导的战略范式是时间战略范式,“战略机遇期”中存在“战略黄金点,”“以弱胜强”“、以劣胜优”不成立,战略的根本问题是力量的自由和限制的问题,将发生战略革命,战略哲学将建立起来。     

闲暇的悖论

闲暇作为人的一种生命状态,是一个人发展自己丰富个性的前提条件,对于人的生活具有本体论的意义。在现代社会,由于资本逻辑的控制,表面上现代人获得了前所未有的闲暇时间,然而这种闲暇带给我们更多的却是束缚和压抑,闲暇又一次与自由擦肩而过。     

拟史:宋元讲史平话的叙事策略

因为题材的客观要求和创作者的有意仿效,讲史平话的叙事特征不同于一般的小说话本,带有明显的"拟史"倾向.讲史平话在叙事时间和叙事结构的处理上,存在对传统史书的借鉴.通过与小说话本和史书的双重比较,可以看出讲史平话的叙事手法在遵循说话艺术线索清晰、细节丰富的同时,也较多运用了史书纪传体和编年体的结构形式.     

我国农村改革历史阶段划分问题的探讨

中国官方习惯用价值判断的直线式描述法,把农村改革发展进程概括为“三个阶段”或“三步走”,尚不足以全面客观地反映这一复杂、曲折、且多变的真实过程。本文带着“问题意识”和“从下往上看”的立体式多维视角,把我国近30年来的农村改革历程划分为三个不同的时期:从1978年到1988年,是农村改革的起步阶段,出现了第一个“黄金发展期”;从1988年到1998年,是农村改革的停滞阶段,出现了“三农综合症”高发期;从1998年10月至今,是农村改革快速推进的阶段,出现了第二个“黄金发展期”。     

Solving,Estimating, and Selecting Nonlinear Dynamic Models Without the Curse of Dimensionality

We present a comprehensive framework for Bayesian estimation of structural nonlinear dynamic economic models on sparse grids to overcome the curse of dimensionality for approximations. We apply sparse grids to a global polynomial approximation of the model solution, to the quadrature of integrals arising as rational expectations, and to three new nonlinear state space filters which speed up the sequential importance resampling particle filter. The posterior of the structural parameters is estimated by a new Metropolis–Hastings algorithm with mixing parallel sequences. The parallel extension improves the global maximization property of the algorithm, simplifies the parameterization for an appropriate acceptance ratio, and allows a simple implementation of the estimation on parallel computers. Finally, we provide all algorithms in the open source software JBendge for the solution and estimation of a general class of models.     

零售商竞争环境下分散式供应链的定价与交货期联合决策模型

考虑了由一个制造商和两个相互竞争的零售商组成的两阶段分散式供应链系统,建立了价格和时间双敏感需求下的供应链定价与交货期联合决策模型,并给出了基于Stackelberg博弈的供应链定价和承诺交货期的最优决策。随后,以集中式供应链的决策为基准,分析了分散式供应链决策的效率。最后,通过数值分析,研究了市场因素和营销渠道竞争因素对分散式供应链的决策效率及承诺交货期的影响。结果表明,供应链下游的渠道竞争有利于提高分散式供应链的决策效率和缩短承诺交货期,从而提高整个供应链的市场竞争力。     

Large Risks,Limited Liability,and Dynamic Moral Hazard

We study a continuous‐time principal–agent model in which a risk‐neutral agent with limited liability must exert unobservable effort to reduce the likelihood of large but relatively infrequent losses. Firm size can be decreased at no cost or increased subject to adjustment costs. In the optimal contract, investment takes place only if a long enough period of time elapses with no losses occurring. Then, if good performance continues, the agent is paid. As soon as a loss occurs, payments to the agent are suspended, and so is investment if further losses occur. Accumulated bad performance leads to downsizing. We derive explicit formulae for the dynamics of firm size and its asymptotic growth rate, and we provide conditions under which firm size eventually goes to zero or grows without bounds.     

Sizing Inventory When Lead Time and Demand are Correlated

Determining appropriate inventory levels has been a subject of interest for both researchers and practitioners. Standard practice is to treat lead time demand as a random sum of random numbers and rely on established probability theory to calculate both reorder point and safety stock levels. A key assumption in these calculations, however, is that lead time and demand are not correlated. In this paper, we first explore situations where this assumption is untrue and then develop equations to determine the reorder point and the safety stock when lead time and demand are correlated. More specifically, we (1) derive formulas for the average and variance of the demand in a lead time, which can then be used to calculate the reorder point and the safety stock, (2) apply these formulas to two distributions for which there is a closed‐form solution: normal and Poisson, and (3) examine the effect of correlation on safety stock requirements under the normal distribution.     

从《德莫福夫人》看亨利·詹姆斯的早期叙事风格

以结构主义叙事理论为指导,从叙事视角和叙事时间入手,对美国作家亨利.詹姆斯的早期作品《德莫福夫人》中初步形成的叙事风格进行分析。研究发现＂意识中心＂和＂时序倒错＂等技巧在作品中的应用,使故事情节更具吸引力,作品形式也更具独特性。     

和谐文化的扩散特征

和谐文化是构建社会主义和谐社会的重要精神支撑和思想道德基础。因此,从文化地理学和传播学的角度,研究十六大之后和谐文化扩散特征对于包括和谐文化在内的我国主流文化更好地传播具有重要意义。研究发现:和谐文化的扩散主要受政治因素影响,以网络、电视等新型信息传播载体为媒介;时间轴扩散分为三个阶段,扩散类型以传染扩散为主,兼具刺激扩散;空间扩散受距离因素影响不明显,但城乡差距显著;等级扩散表现为中央到地方、官方到民间两个等级跨度;和谐文化的传播扩散存在文化势差障碍。