Overdispersed negative binomial regression models

Overdispersion is a common phenomenon in actual data sets. It is important to have methods of dealing with extra variation in regression situations. This article develops tests for extra-negative binomial variation and gives some numerical methods to deal with it. Simulations show power comparisons between some of the overdispersion tests discussed. Finally, an example is given to demonstrate the methods.     

重大事件政府新闻发布传播策略分析——以广州亚运会为例

政府在重大事件中的新闻发布活动是树立政府形象的良好机会。2010年广州亚运会作为亚洲体坛盛会，是一次展示国家形象和广州城市形象的绝佳时机，其新闻发布策略与传播效果尤其值得关注。文章在系统阐述重大事件新闻发布传播策略的基础上，针对广州亚运会裳间广东省及广州市政府新闻发布运行机制与传播策略进行分析，总结出包括制度规范、主题制定、模拟演练，现场应对、舆情监测等传播策略，并对其效果进行分析。     

住宅特征价格分析——以广州为例

以广州二手交易的596个高层楼盘、3703个交易样本为研究基础，采用特征价格法测度了影响广州市住宅价格的主要因素，它们分别是与商业中心的距离、与山江公园的距离、与地铁的距离、噪音、户型间隔、装修档次、朝向、楼层、楼龄、阳台数量10项因素，并给出了影响因素的隐含价值。     

The Micro-Formation Mechanism of Trade Conflicts between Large Developing Countries: India’s Anti-dumping Action against China

Abstract

Employing Grossman and Helpman’s “protection for sale” model, this article uses data on anti-dumping actions from 1999 to 2009 to perform a quantitative analysis of factors influencing India’s determinations of anti-dumping duties against China, and reveals the micro-formation mechanism of economic conflicts between China and India. We find that the political power of India’s anti-dumping plaintiffs markedly increases the tariff level of its final determinations and that the relationship between the import penetration ratio and duty rates depends upon whether the plaintiffs are politically organized. Further, there is a significant positive correlation between India’s anti-dumping duty rates and its unfavorable trade balance with China. This indicates that in determining anti-dumping duties, Indian authorities are clearly influenced by the political clout of their domestic interest groups. They are also motivated by the desire to keep down China and gain the upper hand in the face-off between the “dragon and the elephant.”     

刑事审判程序拒绝预断的两条路径

各国刑事审判程序对预断的“拒绝”，可分为事前防止和事后排除两种途径。正因如此，认为“大陆法系职权主义刑事诉讼没有预断排除规则”的观点值得商榷。显而易见的是，对事前防止与事后排除的不同侧重，正是两种审判模式对待预断的区别之处。预断的作用机制，在心理学上可用“首因效应”来解释，从预断的发生、防止和排除三个方面入手进行分析十分必要，由此得以阐明两种审判模式拒绝预断的不同进路。并且从法制国家的程序设置来看，拒绝预断只是保障公正审判的诸多手段之一。     

国家资源安全体系下资源再生产业贡献因子研究

借鉴发达国家资源再生产业的实践经验，提出基于国家矿产资源安全的资源再生产业发展模式研究的基本内容与方法，建立资源再生产业对国家资源安全体系的贡献因子理论模型，确定了由产业发展的关键性要素到制订资源再生产业市场化发展战略的研究框架。     

Stress and coping in US organizations: The role of the Employee Assistance Programme

Abstract

The organizational role of the Employee Assistance Programme (EAP) is evaluated with particular respect to managerial and human resources policies and practices. Attention is given to models of the EAP, and an ideal-typical model is discussed. A synoptic view is taken covering the scope of the EAP, the sectors of application, the selection criteria for the EAP, as well as patterns of introduction-all within a contingency framework. A critical analysis is made of the roles of participants within the EAP process, as well as of problematic ethical and professional dimensions which the EAP introduces into organizational functioning. A final section treats the future forms of development which the EAP may follow to satisy both organizational and professional imperatives.     

OPTIMAL SOFTWARE RELEASE POLICY BASED ON MARKOVIAN PERFECT DEBUGGING MODEL

In this paper we consider a Markovian perfect debugging model for which the software failure is caused by two types of faults, one which is easily detected and the other which is difficult to detect. When a failure occurs, a perfect debugging is immediately performed and consequently one fault is reduced from fault contents. We also treat the debugging time as a variable to develop a new debugging model. Based on the perfect debugging model, we propose an optimal software release policy that satisfies the requirements for both software reliability and expected number of faults which are required to achieve before releasing the software. Several measures, including the distribution of first passage time to the specified number of removed faults, are also obtained using the proposed debugging model.     

Social Activity,School-related Activity,and Anti–substance Use: Media Messages on Adolescent Tobacco and Alcohol Use

In this article, we present the effects of three hypothesized protective factors—social activities, school-related activities, and anti–substance use media messages—on adolescent tobacco and alcohol use. Data were drawn from the “Monitoring the Future” research project, which was conducted by the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan. The sample included 2,551 twelfth-grade students. The results of the structural equation model showed that exposure to media anti-drug messages had an indirect negative effect on tobacco and alcohol use through school-related activity and social activity. The results suggest that comprehensive ecological interventions encompassing media, family, and school can increase the preventive effects of adolescent's substance use.     

The Social Ecology of Child Development in the Mexican American Population

Abstract

This article explores the influence of contextual factors on the developmental outcomes of Mexican American children. The contextual structure of child development is conceptualized as a complex system of environments, including the socio-demographic, social service, academic, and parental home environments. Based on an extensive review of the current theoretical and empirical literature, we find that the disadvantaged social position of Mexican American children has detrimental implications for all other aspects of their environment, thus hindering their development. In addition, although Mexican American parents are highly competent in providing a nurturing and culturally-rich environment, there is a often a discontinuity between the home environment and both the academic and the social service environments.