人机工程学的发展及人机系统的可靠性

本文介绍了人机工程学(工效学)这一新兴边缘学科的研究内容、发展及现状,讨论了人-机系统的可靠性并着重讨论了人的操作可靠性,探讨了按人为差错进行可靠性分析与可靠性估计的人为差错和可靠性分析逻辑推演法(HERALD法)及系统能力方法(SC方法)。 本文的结论可供系统管理工作者及设计工作者,特别是可靠性管理及可靠性设计工作者参考。     

Optimal and Acceptable Technical Facilities Involving Risks

Economic cost-benefit optimization of technical facility requires suitable "life saving cost" and/or an appropriate acceptance criterion if human life and limb are at risk. Traditionally, acceptance criteria implicit in codes of practice, standards, or regulations for well-defined fields of application are calibrated against past and present practice. This is all but satisfying. It is unclear whether present rules are already optimal. Extrapolations into new fields of application are extremely difficult. Direct cost-benefit analysis is proposed as an alternative. Based on the recently proposed "life quality index" (LQI), a rational acceptance criterion and so-called life saving cost are derived. The classical life quality index is reviewed, modified, and imbedded in modern economics theory. The results are then applied to technical facilities. The relation between optimization and the LQI-based acceptance criterion is discussed. The relevant economics literature is reviewed with respect to discount rates applicable for long-term investments into risk reduction. They should be as low as possible according to a recent mathematical result. Modern economic growth theory decomposes the output growth rate into the rate of time preference of consumption and the rate of economical growth multiplied by the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption. It is found that the rate of time preference of consumption should be a little larger than the long-term population growth rate. The public benefit rate (output growth rate) on the other hand should be smaller than the sum of the population growth rate and the long-term growth rate of a national economy, which is around 2% for most industrial countries. Accordingly, the rate of time preference of consumption is about 1%, which is also intergenerationally acceptable from an ethical point of view. Given a certain output growth rate there is a corresponding maximum financial interest rate in order to maintain nonnegativity of the objective function at the optimum. Finally, a simple demonstration example is added.     

Covariates and Random Effects in a Gamma Process Model with Application to Degradation and Failure

The gamma process is a natural model for degradation processes in which deterioration is supposed to take place gradually over time in a sequence of tiny increments. When units or individuals are observed over time it is often apparent that they degrade at different rates, even though no differences in treatment or environment are present. Thus, in applying gamma-process models to such data, it is necessary to allow for such unexplained differences. In the present paper this is accomplished by constructing a tractable gamma-process model incorporating a random effect. The model is fitted to some data on crack growth and corresponding goodness-of-fit tests are carried out. Prediction calculations for failure times defined in terms of degradation level passages are developed and illustrated.     

The South Oaks Gambling Screen: a review with reference to Australian use

The South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS) is a psychometric instrument widely used internationally to assess the presence of pathological gambling. Developed by Lesieur and Blume (1987) in the United States of America (USA) as a self-rated screening instrument, it is based on DSM-III and DSM-III-R criteria. This paper describes the origins and psychometric development of the SOGS and comments critically in relation to its construct validity and cutoff scores. Reference is made to the use of the SOGS in the Australian setting, where historically gambling has been a widely accepted part of the culture, corresponding to one of the highest rates of legalised gambling and gambling expenditure in the world. An alternative approach to the development of an instrument to detect people who have problems in relation to gambling is proposed.     

Parametric Modeling for Survival with Competing Risks and Masked Failure Causes

We consider a life testing situation in which systems are subject to failure from independent competing risks. Following a failure, immediate (stage-1) procedures are used in an attempt to reach a definitive diagnosis. If these procedures fail to result in a diagnosis, this phenomenon is called masking. Stage-2 procedures, such as failure analysis or autopsy, provide definitive diagnosis for a sample of the masked cases. We show how stage-1 and stage-2 information can be combined to provide statistical inference about (a) survival functions of the individual risks, (b) the proportions of failures associated with individual risks and (c) probability, for a specified masked case, that each of the masked competing risks is responsible for the failure. Our development is based on parametric distributional assumptions and the special case for which the failure times for the competing risks have a Weibull distribution is discussed in detail.     

物流系统的可靠度及其优化研究

物流系统是一个由众多物流单元组成的大系统,它的可靠性程度对企业和社会的平稳运行有着重大的影响.本文在建立物流单元的可靠度及其度量方法基础上,研究了物流系统逻辑组成结构对系统可靠度的影响,并探讨了在有物流能力和可靠度约束的情况下,如何优化物流系统逻辑结构和物流成本的方法.     

内部控制与财务报告可靠性

高质量会计信息的基本特征应主要表现为可靠性。有效的内部控制能够合理保证财务报告的可靠性,内部控制的首要功能是维护财务报告可靠性,内部控制环境是影响财务报告的可靠性的重要因素。完善以财务报告内部控制为基础的内部控制,是新形势下会计管理工作贯彻落实科学发展观、走长期可持续发展道路的必然要求,是促进经济健康运行、规范资本市场秩序、完善现代企业制度的现实需要。     

Bayesian System Reliability Prediction

In system reliability studies a common problem is the coherent assessment of system reliability, based on generic database information from components and on failure data from a system and its components in a common, but unknown, environment. A solution to this problem is given.     

Conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program HRA Procedure

This paper presents a limited assessment of the conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) human reliability analysis (HRA) procedure described in NUREG/CR-4772. The data for this study are derived from simulator examination reports from the NRC requalification examination cycle for nuclear power plant operators. The ASEP procedure was used to estimate human error probability (HEP) values for critical tasks, and the HEP results were compared with the failure rates observed in the examinations. The ASEP procedure was applied by PNNL operator license examiners who supplemented the limited information in the examination reports with expert judgment based upon their extensive simulator examination experience. Comparison of the average of the ASEP HEP values with the fraction of the population actually failed and demonstrated that the ASEP HEP values are larger (conservative) by a statistically significant average factor of two. Partitioning of tasks into subgroups based on the ASEP HEP values and comparison of the subgroup average ASEP HEP values with observed subgroup failure rates showed little or no conservatism for small ASEP HEP values, but considerable conservatism for larger ASEP HEP values.     

TEM-8人文知识项目试题评析及其反拨效应

本文结合近两年TEM-8实考试题,针对其新增题型(人文知识项目),从必要性、信度、效度与反拨效应等几个方面进行了简要评析.